gokou3

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    • Sun Nov 9th 13:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Berkshire Valuation Questionable as Business Fails Guidance Tests
      Ahh... Rakesh you are not implying that BRK may lose the $48B notional value of these contracts are you? Let's see... BRK collected about $5B in premiums, and the durations of these contracts are 10+ years. Assuming 0% growth of this premium, the stock index would have to drop 10% cumulatively over the next 10 years before BRK would lose a cent. Of course you have to take the accounting roller coaster ride in the meantime, but from your post I think that's too much.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 16:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Microsoft: Office to Embrace the Web; One Less Profit Center?
      "For most users this will be more than enough...."

      Dun think so!
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 19th 19:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      An End to Efficient Market Theory
      "the collapse of Fannie Mae (FNM), investment banks, AIG (AIG), etc — have been staring everyone in the face for months if not years"

      I thought Capital Research has been holding piles of stocks of these companies?
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 18:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Loss of Clarity on Chesapeake's Peak
      simpkins, i agree with u, especially after reading this line:

      "for now I will continue to hold what is left of my position, but look to either add or sell in the low 50s as the stock tries to find support in this area"

      Did he mean using a "long straddle" option strategy? I doubt it..
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 16th 13:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Has Starbucks Bottomed? Not by a Long Shot
      Reducing opening hours is not a focusing/efficiency strategy; it's a cut-loss. If you think in terms of net income per employee, wouldn't this mean further profit erosion?
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 5th 16:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Kass Is Wrong About Berkshire Hathaway
      If Kass thinks there's a problem with the derivative portfolio, then Kass should long some European long-term index puts, so he would be the counter-party of BRK.
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 4th 15:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      HSBC's Net Inflated by One-Time Gains
      I think the one-off gains is more in the range of $3-$5B. On the other hand, one can consider subprime losses as one-off losses too (albeit one that will go on for a couple more years)
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 3rd 01:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Profit from Visa - the Biggest IPO in U.S. History
      You have no discussion of V's valuation. How can you conclude "you can't lose"? Btw, you must not have read the IPO prospectus: it says explicitly it will pay a dividend, not maybe.
      View article »
    • Sun Feb 17th 15:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How International Finance Affects Emerging Markets
      "How can banks lose money when the spread is 3% of all Chinese saving in the banks?"

      A: Well... when the borrowers cannot pay back?
      View article »
    • Fri Feb 15th 16:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Forever Stamp: The Next Great Investment Opportunity?
      Why stop at 1 day.... you can annualize the return based on the time between the business close of the USPS office and the opening on the next day...
      View article »
    • Tue Feb 12th 15:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Ball Is Now In Microsoft's Court
      Thomas, I'd really love to see how you determine the 90% figure.. btw, even if the deal closes at $50B it's only about 2 years of MSFT EBIT.
      View article »
    • Sun Jan 20th 15:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buy ETFs, Avoid Mutual Funds
      The 1.3% is slightly misleading IMO. We don't need a mutual fund that beats the market EVERY YEAR for x years. All we need is a fund that beats the market ON AVERAGE over long-term. The chance of finding latter is much higher than 1.3%, but is still exceedingly small (~20% from some articles I read).
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 14th 16:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sears Holdings' True Value
      Well, I would argue that there's not much profit to make from your short. Let's apply discount factors to the 4 components of values based on the negativity of your comments: 50% on retail, 80% on RE, 80% on brand, and 50% on EL. I get
      240*(0.5*0.24+0.8*0.45... The discount factors are of course arbitrary (perhaps you can spell out what d.f. you think are appropriate), but the $158 estimate is 76% higher than its current PPS of $90. In fact, my discounted RE value is $86.4 (i.e. 240*.8*.45) which is almost equal to its PPS.
      View article »
    • Fri Jan 11th 21:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      American Express Drops a Bomb on Consumer Spending
      There are zero-annual-fee AMEX cards too. With cash rebates.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 5th 01:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Volatility and Beta Matter
      Mr. Hanson's article may not be making perfect sense, but I found the following very illogical as well:

      "high Beta stocks are supposed to do well in a rising market---it’s when things decline that high Beta gets troublesome. High Beta amplifies returns in both directions."

      When you say "supposed to...", I interpret that as "at least a >50% probability"... so if things are this easy, one can just buy high-beta stocks in a rising market and short them in a down market? But then, you don't really know when a market is "rising"... you really only know whether it has JUST risen or not. Thus, doesn't that make your proposition about the value of beta not very useful?

      IMHO, beta is just what it is.. an indication of the volatility of a security, but NO indication of whether it should go up or down.
      View article »
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