Jeff

http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/
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43 Comments

    • Sun Nov 2nd 23:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Finally, Three Reasons to Buy
      Concerning "factoids". Thanks for the comments and constructive criticism. I like to use words accurately and effectively. By "factoid" I was trying to suggest some interesting indicators, but not things where I wanted to do a comprehensive analysis. This is something like one of the definitions, but not my major theme. I'll find a different word.....

      Thanks,

      Jeff
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    • Mon Oct 20th 15:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Four Things For Investors to Consider and Four Policy Decisions Worth Noting
      Thanks to all for the comments. The next leg of the "rescue plan" is supposed to create a more realistic auction market for these securities. I am doing research and will write more. I'll try to show how some securities are valued below levels reflecting complete failure by the "toxic" portions.

      I really constructive questions and comments. It helps to stay on course.

      Jeff
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    • Thu Sep 11th 20:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Sales: Another Take On Modeling and Forecasting
      Tom - -Thanks for sharing the link. I traded through the LTCM crisis and read Lowenstein's book as soon as it came out. It is a good take on the problem, which is not modeling per se, but the use of leverage. There were also many funds piling into the same trade.

      My point in the article is that modeling is inevitable. The only question is how professionally it is done. The Angry Appraiser points out that some math types can screw up, and I appreciate this insight from the front lines.

      Meanwhile, he is making his own forecasts, using his own heuristics, and even predicting how long it will all take. My point is that this is an implicit model -- and one that is not subject to any testing.

      I am still working on this idea, and I really appreciate the feedback.

      Thanks,

      Jeff
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    • Thu Sep 11th 20:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Sales: Another Take On Modeling and Forecasting
      Nukldrager - I was trying to observe that if interest rates fall, one can buy more house on the same income. Around here many people refinanced, shortened terms, and cut their rates. There can, of course, be abuse. Basically, you can't just look at income to price w/o considering the size of the payment.

      I know that you realize this, but I am just trying to clarify. Maybe we are saying the same thing.

      Thanks,

      Jeff
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    • Wed Sep 3rd 23:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Understanding Characteristics of Public Opinion
      wp--

      You are a bit too harsh in your inference about politics. I checked out a number of your comments, and you are the one with an agenda. Moreover, you have no idea - -none whatsoever -- whether I agree with your voting preference or not.

      The reason is that I try to get information from a multitude of sources. Information first, conclusions later. Send me an email and we can discuss further offline.

      I really want to encourage people to get the maximum information from all sources -- discounting for bias as needed.

      Thanks again for a comment that (no doubt) reflects the feelings of many.

      Best,

      Jeff
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    • Tue Aug 5th 12:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Reviewing the John Thain Saga
      venividivici -- Thanks for your kind wishes. If the position works out as well as my average pick for clients over the last ten years, I will be delighted. Finding an edge requires a contrarian attitude. When a rather obvious interpretation of the facts gives you an edge over those with a big attitude, it makes for a nice trade.

      Thain stepped into a tough position with plenty of problems.

      Thanks again for commenting.

      Jeff
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    • Sun Aug 3rd 17:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Get Smart on U.S. Economic Policy
      Gary - Your comments are more helpful than you can imagine. When I am trying to write, the audience is nameless and faceless. In an actual classroom, it is much easier to spot and engage the doctrinaire student who knows everything before entering the class. The question is always how far to go in an effort to reach that person, possibly at the expense of everyone else. A dilemma.

      For the moment...the point of recommending Kudlow and Company is not to endorse his specific viewpoints. I'm sure that I disagree with him just as much as you seem to. The program is good in that it provides some air time to a variety of perspectives. It also stimulates follow up discussion by many of those participating -- writing on their blogs or elsewhere.

      Thanks again,

      Jeff
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    • Mon Jun 30th 11:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      ETF Update: Greater Flexibility, More Strategies
      nearos -- We do have a couple of the ETF's you mention. The universe we use is part of an overall trading strategy where we remain invested in the top eight sectors. We do not want to have, say, eight Latin American country funds, or eight gold and silver ETF's. For this reason we choose a representative ETF for a particular theme. We look for open-ended funds without excessive concentration in a few companies. At the moment, we have not included pure commodity plays, but the idea is under review. It may require a completely separate ranking and asset allocation.

      We publish the ratings for the general interest and to give a look at our strategy. It is not intended as a comprehensive comparison of all funds. If your favorite ETF is not on the list, you should be able to find a similar ETF in our universe, and the strength ratings will probably be similar.

      We consider (and use) suggestions for new candidates that meet the criteria. We also provide reports to some customers who have their own customized list of candidates.

      Thanks for your comment. I'm sure that others had the same question.

      Jeff
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    • Wed Jun 11th 10:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buffett's Strange Bet
      Zander -- thanks for the explanation about the Long Bets site -- very interesting concept.

      Jeff
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    • Fri Jun 6th 00:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Government Conspiracy Theories and Your Money
      It is always interesting to read comments, and I always appreciate them. I am working on my book, which explores how people respond to evidence.

      So -- when I consider those who claim to know so much about how government makes decisions, I always wonder about their experience. Since I have worked in a high-level government policy shop, I have seen what is political and what is not.

      Many are going to operate from pre-conceived notions with no factual basis. I will never convince these people, and I am not going to try.

      Many of them are trying to sell you something -- gold, annuities, or other bearish products. My hope is to reach a few thoughtful investors who want to consider facts.

      I challenge those who are critical to produce some real evidence of a government conspiracy. I find that most of those criticizing the government know nearly nothing about how it works. Isn't it wonderful to live in a country where people can criticize and lose money in complete freedom!
      And those of us who take the other side of the trade also can do well.

      Thanks to those commenting, whatever your persuasion. I'll have more on the inflation theme.

      Jeff
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    • Tue Jun 3rd 18:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Interpreting the ISM Report: Watch That Decimal Point!
      Very interesting and helpful comments, 'Big'. The political landscape will look different after the election. Let us hope for less posturing and more reality.

      Jeff
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    • Mon Jun 2nd 15:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nuclear ETF Showing Strength
      Jon - you can email me via jmiller at newarc dot com.

      Thanks,

      Jeff
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    • Mon Jun 2nd 15:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nuclear ETF Showing Strength
      Bluesmoke and yourfilled: Congratulations on your wise and successful investment in NLR. Some of the biggest gains come from very early calls -- when they work. For part of the time that NLR has been a "buy", there have been at least 8 ETF's with higher rankings, and we stick to the top eight. It is certainly true that knowing when to exit may be even more important than knowing when to buy. Those with big gains re-balance portfolios, selling to new buyers while still hoping for further upside.

      Thanks for your comments.

      Jeff
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    • Thu May 1st 00:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fear, Investors, & Marketing
      JJason -- You ask a tough question. It is not because I am concerned about returns. (16% last year, over 10% annualized for ten years, beating the S&P by 7 points per year in our individual program).

      If I do not answer, it seems like I am offering opinion without expertise.

      The problem is that returns alone are not a good answer. Each investor is different -- needs, risk tolerance, etc. As a Registered Investment Advisor I qualify each client and tailor the program. What we do is not suitable for everyone.

      I obviously welcome inquiries from interested investors, but my mission in these articles is oriented to education.

      Thanks for the question, but I hope most who are interested will inquire via email at my site.

      Jeff
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    • Fri Apr 18th 16:58 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Doug Kass on Housing Predictions: An Update
      As usual, I appreciate and learn something from all comments. I can see that I should have quoted more from the original article. It seems like most readers are not referencing that analysis. In particular, the difference between the actual correlation (.19) and the visual image is important. I have quite a number of "chart udpate" pieces planned, and I'll try to do better in explaining.

      For those who do not think the issue is important, you should talk to some individual investors. This chart had a very powerful effect on people a year ago, with a prediction of an incipient collapse in consumer spending. The "batman" part of it, which is actually not even correlated, is a particularly deceptive feature. And as for "giving it time" the entire scale was manipulated to make the "V" bottoms fit so that the collapse in spending would seem to be an immediate threat a year ago. In the book, the original charts and the updates will be side-by-side, perhaps solving some problems.

      Thanks again to all those who took the time to offer constructive comments.

      Jeff
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