RGW

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    • Wed Oct 22nd 09:42 AM
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      Media and Entertainment Outlook Worsens - S&P
      The print news media faces a structural challenge that will cause restructurings and re-orgs, and even failures. I see the Newspaper Association of America Advertising Expenditures series dropping 15% in 2008 relative to 2007 and 2009 dropping an additional 16.5% from 2008.

      if the above forecast turns out to be accurate and considering the print media's high operating leverage, some media companies will not make it.
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    • Fri Sep 5th 13:56 PM
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      Commented on:
      Newspaper Ad Revenues Gaining Downhill Momentum; Online Struggling Too
      I maintain models of (NAA) ad expenditures trends and I must say I was totally surprised by the Q2 results for online. The $777 million is in the zero percentile in a one period ahead series. I was forecasting the 2008 aggregate expenditure to be $39.4 bilion and 2009 to be $34.6 billion. It's going to be worse than that. Additionally, for some time now, newspaper ad exps have been disconnected from macroeconomic indicators. These recent trends are not cyclical.
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    • Wed Aug 13th 09:26 AM
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      NYT Dilemma: Cut Dividend or Get Junked
      A junk bond rating? Another too high rating. NYT circulation declines lead to advertising declines which leads to loss of franchise.
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    • Wed Aug 6th 13:33 PM
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      Commented on:
      9 Questions on Newspapers' 2Q Reports
      To answer question 9, the short answer is "not much if any". A trend line model (ARIMA) and forecast (Monte Carlo) show a decline of 13% in 2008 and an additional 12% in 2009. Interestingly, when I build the last three recessions into the model, there is only a slight change in the expected values. There are going to be major realignments over the short term...and a very rough ride for some.
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