David White

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    • Mon Dec 1st 09:30 AM
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      Fast Money Recap - GM and Ford Go to Washington (11/28/08)
      Canada reported that its GDP rose at a 1.3% rate for Q3. This was better than expected. However, StatsCan said that almost all of the growth occurred in July. Futher they expected thought interest rate cuts by the central bank were in the offing for the near future. The Canadian dollar was down in relation to the US Dollar.

      If the US is following a similar pattern, we can expect Q4 to be very bad indeed.
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    • Mon Dec 1st 08:29 AM
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      Fast Money Recap - GM and Ford Go to Washington (11/28/08)
      I should add that the Royal Bank of Scotland is being taken over by the British Government to avoid it failing. Further the Canadian government is in revolt. It seems likely the current government will be replaced soon due largely to the credit crisis again.
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    • Mon Dec 1st 05:15 AM
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      Fast Money Recap - GM and Ford Go to Washington (11/28/08)
      I probably should mention that protesters are trying to oust the current Thailand government. In this attempt they have siezed two airports. This has resulted in approx. 300,000 travelers being stranded. Perhaps this too is a worrisome. The markets do not like uncertainty. There seems to be a lot of it currently. Futures are already down significantly.
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    • Mon Dec 1st 04:59 AM
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      Fast Money Recap - GM and Ford Go to Washington (11/28/08)
      Add to this that Bhuto was assassinated after being barred from retaining private security. She was assassinated in a location understood to be in the heart of government military control. It was thought she would win election in a landslide.

      Add the fact that Pakistan has nuclear capability.

      Add suspicious circumstances that could have implicated the Musharaff government attended the 1st assasination attempt, but Musharaff rejected repeated requests for
      independent investigation.

      This picture is very worrisome indeed.
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    • Mon Dec 1st 04:21 AM
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      Fast Money Recap - GM and Ford Go to Washington (11/28/08)
      I should add that the market has gone up for 5 days straight. It is overdue for a down day. The futures are down at the moment. This indicates that the markets may start off down. Once they get any momentum in that direction they may continue that way.

      People have also been ignoring the India terrorist problems. The current theory seem to be that the terrorists are Pakistani. They apparently are trying to attack Westerners (U.S. citizens and Western Europeans) to again show us we are not safe. This is another significant act of war against the U.S. and the Western European countries. Perhaps more significantly Obama has stated several times that the situation in Afghanistan needs more attention (i.e. more troops). He regards that situation as much more important to US interests than the situation in Iraq. Since the Al Quaeda terrorists have often been said to be sheltering in Pakistan, this would seem to lead soon to be President Obama in the direction of pursuing yet another war. In my mind the markets should find this extremely upsetting. It does seem to be. If Obama follows his election rhetoric, he may just end up pursuing this course. Personally I think he meant what he said about his concern in this area. It remains to be seen what he will do. It is almost a certainty that President Bush will not start another military action before he leaves office. If President Obama does, this may destroy much of the good will he has built up in many areas. Still as commander in chief, he may come to the conclusion he has to.

      Just the thought of all of this is bad news for the markets and for the US economy. The fact that US citizens are now being targeted in other major commerce centers around the world is upsetting in itself.
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    • Mon Dec 1st 04:01 AM
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      Fast Money Recap - GM and Ford Go to Washington (11/28/08)
      Re: Big 3 Automakers

      The Japanese automakers are having problems here and in Japan. This is in spite of the fact that they apparently pay much less in wages than US automakers do. The economy is getting worse, especially with regard to durable goods orders (down 6+% in the last report). The automakers situation is likely to get significantly worse over the next 6 months. This means they will be bleeding cash at a rate they probably do not even fully comprehend at this time. The US automakers would have to make major changes in order to present a plan to be profitable in the near term to Congress. Knowing how bureaucracies work (both the automakers management and the UAW) it is extremely unlikely that the US automakers will present a viable plan to Congress. It is much more likely that Congress will again tell them to go back to the drawing board, especially since Congress also wants more fuel efficient vehicles as part of the plan.

      The play on automakers is over tomorrow morning at the open. Waiting any longer is simply a risk that is not a percentage play. There is likely less than a 50% chance that Congress will want to approve the automakers suggestions. The automakers' stocks will crash when they are told to go back to the drawing board for a better plan. When this happens, it will be unclear that Congress will be able to act on the automakers second attempt at a plan before the new year. This may mean one or more of them may go into bankruptcy at least temporarily.

      I am disappointed that the Fast Money people are being so cavalier with their advice. Good luck to all of those who follow them into Tuesday!
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    • Mon Dec 1st 00:39 AM
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      We're in a Mid-Cap Rally
      I probably should have mentioned the 6+% decrease in the Durable Goods Orders economic data reported last week. Very few MidCap companies are going to thrive in that type of environment. The above mentioned credit problems likely mean we have not come close to the bottom of the market yet. It seems likely there are many more bad Durable Goods figures to come. How can MidCap stocks rally in that kind of environment?
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    • Mon Dec 1st 00:31 AM
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      We're in a Mid-Cap Rally
      There is no doubt that the markets have rallied for the last several days. However, it is too soon to say that we are in any type of rally. The new $800 billion the government Tuesday said it would put into the credit markets has had a positive effect on them. The good feelings over this have had a positive effect on the market. However, it seems unlikely this is going to last until even Christmas. Not only the US automakers are complaining, but the Japanese automakers are having severe problems with sales in Japan. Most people think they make more saleable, more fuel effiecient cars. They are still having problems. How are the Big 3 US automakers going to present a plan for profitability to Congress? The answer seems to be that they won't be able to with the cuts they are currently envisioning. Further most of the recently announced job cuts (such as Citi's 75,000) have not occurred. Yet car buying is down severely. We will find out how severely on Tuesday. It only seems likely to get worse in the next couple of quarters. It seems likely Congress will tell Big 3 to go back to the drawing board again. This will cause further angst.

      The news on the Christmas sales season is somewhat dismal too. People came out for Black Friday to get the big discounts. However, they did not stay for the weekend. Also everyone the news media interviewed said they had cut their budget to half or less of what they spent last year. This is terrible news for the retailers.

      The commercial real estate markets are apparently now becoming a severe problem. The tenancy rates are down (both what is being charged and the percentage of available space filled). The buildings are just not as profitable. Plus most of the commercial loans are usually much shorter term. They often come due in 5 to 10 years (with a balloon payment). There are going to be a lot of defaults in the current economic environment. With the losses in appraised values, many will be unable to get new loans to cover the ballon payments. This could end up being a very serious problem indeed.

      Finally the US credit crisis had a disastrous effect on Europe. However, now it is Europe's turn to return the favor. Apparently European banks are one of the major lenders to developing countries. With the current economic crisis, many of the loans to businesses in these countries are in serious trouble. There are likley to be many defaults. The European banks will suffer greatly. There is little doubt that this will significantly effect the US credit markets. The recent $800B may have stabilized our markets for the moment. However, they most likely will soon be destabilized again by their involvement with European banks in much the same way European banks were by US credit default problems. Of course, US banks have lent some money to developing countries also. They will have the same problem with their loans. I don't see a quick end to all of this. I am going to be surprised if the Christmas rally makes it very far into next week. The problems in the US are still significant. With the above mentioned developing country default problems on the very near horizon, the skies are darkening again. Even Trump is not paying his bills on time. That kind of thing can't be helping banks (credit markets).
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    • Fri Nov 28th 17:16 PM
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      Friday Outlook: An Enigmatic Bounce
      The strong uptrend is for the moment still in place. Yet the planned 75,000 Citi layoffs, plus others. Add to that the BIG 3 bankruptcy concerns that have the potential to cause millions of job losses. These could also be in the news again soon. They have to come up with a plan for becoming profitable, even in this negative environment for durable goods. That could be a very big challenge indeed. They may be back in the news soon in a very negative way. Add negative retail data to this, and you might think the current uptrend could have a very hard time sustaining itself. Add to this the idea that most bear market experts say the bottom won't be reached until the average PE in the S&P500 is in single digits. It is currently above 12 for the SPY. Since PE is a trailing indicator, it is likely to get higher with further earnings announcements as Q4 is now seen as certianly a contraction quarter. If I believe the bear market experts, this would tend to make me believe that the market has at least another 30% to 40% or more to fall before it has hit bottom. This doesn't make me optimistic about the current rally being sustainable.
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    • Fri Nov 28th 11:21 AM
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      Friday Outlook: An Enigmatic Bounce
      There is also the technical data. Lately the SPY has been in a fairly consistent downtrend. During this time it has occaisionally ventured above its 50-day exponential moving average. Each time it has done so, it has soon plumetted. It is now above its 50 day exponential moving average. With what is expected to be bad retail data available on Monday, one might think there is another plunge likely in the offing soon.
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    • Fri Nov 28th 11:03 AM
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      Friday Outlook: An Enigmatic Bounce
      Oh, you probably forgot to mention one of the most important events lately. The Durable Goods Orders were down 6.6% in the latest survey. Not many manufacturing companies are going to do well in this kind of environment. Even without autos, it was down 4.4%. The prediction had been for around -3.0%. Things seem likely to be a lot worse than some people are guessing.
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    • Fri Nov 28th 10:59 AM
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      Friday Outlook: An Enigmatic Bounce
      The DJ News Service had an article the other day about 4 unidentified hedge funds. Supposedly they will close on/by Dec. 15 due to exposure to Lehman. At some point all of this bad news will start to override the government's recent actions. I am just not really sure exactly when. I expect there will be more mutual fund and hedge fund selling soon. Still the latest action should be a good step to shore up the residential real estate market. I hope it works. Does anyone really know where this market is going now???
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    • Wed Nov 26th 09:19 AM
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      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      Latest news this morning is that 4 unidentified hedge funds in the U.S. may close by mid-december because they cannot access information about their assets now frozen at Lehman Brothers' London arm.

      This could be the beginning of a new deluge of hedge fund and mutual fund selling???
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    • Mon Nov 24th 06:58 AM
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      Solar Companies Overseas: Where the Sun Don't Shine No More
      dwhite1: After LDK completes its polysilicon manufacturing plants, it should have margins very similar to FSLR's. It should be able to compete even at the lower prices. Also Nanosolar has said they could produce CIGS solar for $1/watt in the near future. However, they did not start trying to sell their solar at prices far below the current market values. They started very close to the current market values. It is unclear when the price of solar will get to $1/watt. It may not happen as quickly as 2-3yrs, even though companies such as Nanosolar will likely have the ability to produce it for that profitably. The old adage "charge what the market will bear." comes to mind. LDK is already planning to sell solar for about $2/watt next year, so even LDK is not too far from that figure now.