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Latest Comments33 Comments
Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?
In your cogitations re market price manipulation, do not forget that for every single share bought, there is one sold--- and I am not aware of any "fails to deliver" with SIRI clearings. The two parties are at cross purposes to one another--true manipulation requires them to be in cahoots.
Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?
sl62--You ask whether I think MANIPULATION has occured. There probably are very isolated instances, but in my long investment career I learned it is extremely difficult to influence the price of a stock whose average daily volume for 3 months is nearly 64 million shares and where there are several dozen NASDAQ market makers. Hanky -panky is much easier the lower the number in these two categories.
Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?
I never thought the merger would help, and over the 1 1/2 years I posted many times that thought. My basic thought all along is that with the tens of billions of shares out (from 1.2B shares for SIRI in 2004 to about 3.2B shares SIRI/XMSR combined today) the market cap has ranged from $10+B down to over $2.5B today.
These astronomical numbers have been (un)supported by $BILLIONS of bottom line losses, same numbers for negative cash flows, rapidly decreasing growth rates in net sub adds enhanced by nearly spiking increases in churn, increasingly negative figures for working capital and stockholder equity, total dependence on the cooperarion of increasingly tough lenders in even tougher credit markets, no new programming enhancements, consumers looking for ways to cut their own overhead, a cooking of the books --see acct payable increases-- so that 4Q06 and 4Q07 positive cash flow could be bragged on, AND I COULD GO ON.
Would Warren Buffet pay the $BILLIONS that the market has said and still says this piece of s--- is worth?? No he wouldn't, and neither would I.
Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?
Over the 4 years I've probably posted re SIRI about 100 times on Yahoo and these blogsites. At least 90% of these have rendered lengthy bearish analyses with more numbers than anyone wanted to read. I would spend lots of time and arithmetic putting these things together and two hours later the only maybe three responsive comments would be along the lines--"FU BURTBECK YOU GD BASHER".
This can be confirmed by Tyler Slattery, who someone told me, used to post as Doberman007 on Yahoo and with whom several years ago I did have a very occasional debate. Also of note is the quality of ignorant commentary on Yahoo gave me further incentive to increase my short position because those bidding up the price did not have a clue. And, to have the last word, I have all along been right.
Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?
Every one of my postings has been intended to give hard reasons why SIRI has been overpriced every day-- I am trying to save the 'Strong Buys' from foolishly wasting their money, as they have indeed done long term (I hope maybe some profits on short term trades).
And my posting today @ $0.78 pps is intended to save exactly that amount---as I said, I feel better than 50-50 chance $0.00 is on the horizon.
Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?
You say "SIRI investors...are myopic...and fail to look at the bigger picture..."
I'm pretty sure that's what I've looked at every day since $9.43 pps nearly four years ago. My view has led me to a gigantic profit on my (now nearly covered) short position.
You, my friend, are commiting the cardinal sin: YOU ARE ARGUING WITH THE TAPE.
Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?
IT TAKES CHECKING ACCOUNT CASH TO STAY ALIVE!
Such a situation places a company's fate totally in the hands of willing lenders. (New equity at current price is out of the (dilutive!) question.)
As I see it SIRI is in a life-or-death race to achieve sufficient cash flow to make a good case to lenders and there is a less than 50-50 chance that lenders in current and 2009 credit markets will want to keep the enterprise afloat. The current financial statement metrics are HORRIBLE. A Ch.11 reorganization would do wonders--the subscribers would be taken care of but the shareholders would NOT.
How Sirius XM Should Handle Supply and Demand
In 1959 I became a registered representative at a NYSE firm. The first month a seasoned veteran told me "never argue with the tape". The present market price, which happens to represent an exact 90 percent decline from the Nov 2004 Mel/Howard high, says it all.
What to Expect in Tuesday's Sirius XM Radio Conference
But I will be very critical of Mel if he does not provide a quarter-by-quarter P&L proforma guidance between now and then--all the way out to 12/31/09. Same for cash flow, gross and net sub additions, sub acquisition costs, rev per sub, etc. The number crunchers within the company are very remiss if they do not have this stuff, and they should share it with shareholders, particularly after a game-changing merger.
This management's pronouncements have been way too much hype and not enough hard numbers all along, and today's $1.26 pps reflects this. I listen to a lot of quarterly conference calls, and compared to 99 percent of them Mel is an embarrassment.
What Happened to the Sirius Post Labor Day Conference Call?
What Happened to the Sirius Post Labor Day Conference Call?
Sirius XM Cramer Wars Part II
Sirius XM Cramer Wars Part II
Sirius XM Cramer Wars Part II
I think I have my decimal point OK and if so the total adds up to (my corrected total) 9.513 million shs pre merger 6/30/08., about 6.3% of the company. Note GS is not listed as owner in the Yahoo "insider" pages, which supports my above thinking.
If they are in fact true beneficial owners of these shares and are same time involved in a shorting strategy, all short positions up to this 9.513M share total are "against the box", are a 'wash', and pointless.
My bet is the GS company DOES own the $127.7M mkt val of the 2/09 cvts as an investment and any shorting of the common ---arb activity against this position--- makes sense, although even the sagacity of holding the cvts is mitigated by the slim 2 1/2 percent coupon and the big market price movement needed to get to $4.41 conversion.
Sirius XM Cramer Wars Part II
Looking at the entire filing, which of course is a mile long and has many hundreds of issues very many of which are in $$$ amounts that are 'peanuts' for GS, I just cannot believe GS would in effect have a proprietary unbelievably diversified inhouse mutual fund where every one of the issues listed in the filing represents a conscious bullish investment decision by the highly paid GS hotshots. What say you on this thought?