Plowboy

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    • Sun Jun 29th 22:49 PM
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      Commented on:
      Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing
      Now on a serious note. Pay attention Kid .....

      SIXM will be offering free/limited commercial satrad with commercial free / premium paid programming < 14 months.

      Why has the NAB been so vehement over a piddly little 18 million subs? ... It wasn't just about the merger, it's the cash flow that permits the launching of an additional revenue stream. You see, we have a national content player entering the 4 billion + ad market.... and it's SIXM.

      Lovely, lovely.

      View article »
    • Sun Jun 29th 22:40 PM
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      Goldman's Sirius Call: Solid Thesis, Poor Timing
      If all of you wish to recall, I wrote a piece in December of 2005 suggesting that Mike would write a piece like this on June 29th, 2008. Need Remind you that, once again , I am right and most probably one of the cleverest people in the Universe.

      If only you drab schmucks would have listened to me, you would be happy now... but alas, you chose to ignore my supreme intelligence and debonair looks.

      Ta-Ta, I'm a busy and important man who would rather not be bothered by your ilk.
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    • Thu Jun 26th 20:03 PM
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      Sirius-XM Combination: A Future Microsoft Acquisition?
      Microsoft... you mean that company that screws up everything it touches?

      I understand that Kevin Martin would like to buy XM when he has it down to a dime? ... Maybe next week!
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    • Wed Jun 25th 00:29 AM
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      Sirius Satellite Radio is Seriously Undervalued
      The merger will be 5-0.

      SIXM will spilt offering 20-30 slots basics with commerical for free and premium content commercial-less for $$ by 2010.

      I think GM and others are crying for backseat video which will be in the back of headrests.

      I see this at 12.00 in 2013-2015 without rev splits.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 22nd 18:46 PM
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      Cowen Slams Goldman on Radio Stocks Analysis
      IF GS gets the SIXM refi deal the story will be understood.
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    • Sun Jun 22nd 18:40 PM
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      Cowen Slams Goldman on Radio Stocks Analysis
      This piece fails to consider the "cut" by OEM's which then take a SUBSTANTIAL % of the gross ARPU. Winky is a Dinky, but he's right about this if the number is not offset by the 14.95 combined package.
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    • Sat Jun 21st 06:01 AM
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      Bearish Report Sends Satellite Radio Lower
      Everyone knows that I'm very pro satrad for many years...but ... GS has been about 85% accurate on the stock prices since November of 07 when they called for a 2.25 stock price on Sirius in one year. They have "missed" the general consensus of many giving the merger a 30% chance.... and hopefully, they are not as correct on the merger odds (they have become more positive as of late) as they have been on financing, share price and market trends.

      Just because someone's opinion is different, doesn't make the other guy wrong.... there are motives also for Citi who hopes to fund SIXM as well as potential hostilities @ GS if they DON'T get the finance deal.

      Just remember, they are all fucking crooks, just like paid off Congressmen and special interest FCC members. There are few Jimmy Stewart's left in the world, and especially in NYC.
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    • Fri May 30th 22:14 PM
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      Commented on:
      Status Report: XM Satellite Radio, Sirius
      Do America a favor.... write your congressman calling for Brownie Martin's firing. I have, and it felt good doing my public duty to that public doo-doo.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 14:57 PM
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      Sirius, XM: Price Targets and Expectations
      Raw,

      There certainly are, and all the prognostications done by company owners, analysts, investors, and pundits have been wrong for 10 years. I.E. Remember Hugh Panero (the failed and disgraced CEO of XM) statement of CFBE @ 4.5 million subs? .... seems like he really meant 14.5 million.

      Thereby the purpose and intent of my many "Ifs".

      One thing for sure. No single satrad provider will make a dime unless one of them goes tits up. The market is too limited with the programming too expensive, with listening options too diverse.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 13:18 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sirius, XM: Price Targets and Expectations
      Having lost 135K to date in satrad over the last seven years, and able to spew data until you're sleeping, I'd like to weigh in.

      I find it unbelievable that people like Janco spit out numbers like " seven Billion in synergies" .... is that seven billion per year April, seven billion in ten years? .. Seven billion forever?

      At any rate, having run companies I'd share that most companies can shed about 30% of their costs with a merger. This merger may extrapolate greater synergies due to satellite demand and will certainly benefit in the call centers which are chewing up 13% of total sales now. Cutting the pooh, I'd guess that "first year" synergies will be 300-400 million with second year (and thereafter until 2012) hitting 750-800 million.

      This will put SIXM in the black 10-14 months after merger.

      Now... the big IF.... if they are going to go to 50 million subs... and if the ARPU remains where it is, and IF the ad revenue grows reasonably, and IF the net before tax remains at 65%, then SIXM could crap out 1.8 Billion per year in profit.

      How many shares are there you say .... 3.0 billion is the answer.

      With a multiple of 20, and without (much needed buybacks) SIXM will be worth 12.00 per share at 50 million subs which I predict will be achieved in 2015-2016.

      Is a 4.5 "timer" worth waiting seven years for?

      Indeed... and that's why I now own 74,500 shares.




      View article »