Mathman Prophecy

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    • Thu Dec 4th 13:07 PM
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      Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30
      While Jason was more or less correct on calling $30 oil, his reasoning was still off base. As cited in my above posting, only 40% of oil is converted into gasoline. The rest is used for Jetfuel, Instustrial energy needs, and Petro-Chemicals - plastics, tar, rubber, pharmaceuticals, make-up. A slow down in economy/industry is leading reason behind oil price collapse -- Not less driving paired with increase in fuel efficienct cars.
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    • Tue Nov 4th 14:21 PM
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      Global Recession Is an Economic Reality
      Keynesian economics are socialist ie, they are the cause of our problems, not the solution. Milton Friedman has predicted, accurately, stagflation as a result of Keynesian economics. Too bad no one is the wiser. Keynesianism is stil being practiced (see: US Government) and preached (US schools).
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    • Wed Oct 8th 09:08 AM
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      MetLife: No Longer Bankruptcy Candidate Material
      I'd put Prudential on a very safe list, these guys have a very low risk profile. You didn't mention Genworth (GNW), but I'd keep on eye on them. But I suppose the market value on Genworth has already reflected this outlook.
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    • Mon Sep 15th 09:23 AM
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      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      If you're looking for a job, I think the best place to work nowadays is for head hunters. This is bad, but at least Lehman didn't get bailed out by the Fed...
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    • Mon Aug 18th 13:28 PM
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      Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30
      But seriously, $30?! The cheaper it gets, the more it will be used regardless of alternative fuels.

      You keep mentioning hybrids and new fuels, but Gasoline consumption accounts for about 40% of a barrel of oil. The rest is used for Jetfuel, Instustrial energy needs, and Petro-Chemicals - plastics, tar, rubber, pharmaceuticals, make-up.

      The only way oil will go to $30 is if they create a very cheap way to manufacture hydro-carbons. Until then, the world will need Oil and the demand will most certainly be strong enough to keep prices of Oil at twice above your estimate.
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    • Mon Aug 18th 13:13 PM
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      Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30
      The underlining ends</b> here.
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    • Thu Aug 7th 14:00 PM
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      Priceline and Visa: Two Stocks To Buy Now
      Priceline has absurdly high growth rates (which is why it fell like crazy even when it posted 'good' number), has zero competitive advantage from similar offerings like Expedia, Orbitz, and Travelocity, has a market that have small barrier to entry, will suffer from decreased travel by consumers, will suffer from deals being directly offered by airlines. All it will take is for Google to make a service for these deals and you can kiss Priceline goodbye. Sorry, William Shatner can only drive up the stock to a point, this stock has absolutely no credibility as a good investment, unless gambling is your forte.

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    • Fri Aug 1st 15:52 PM
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      Starbucks on Sale (Part I)
      I had done a case study on Starbucks 6 years ago, though since then I have not revisited the company, nor have I really cared. However, one interesting finding was that each store opening infringes on other stores within the vicinity. This did result in net sales to go up, so the general effect on their bottom line was positive. The investment on each store was paid back after 3 years of operation. Nonetheless, I recall their high growth expansion plan was to achieve for 1 store per 50,000 people. That was 6 years ago. From the looks of it, they were opening stores in line with that goal, but ignored the concept of saturation. Their business model should be more inline with Coca-Cola; as they got big growth should be slow and steady. Instead, it looks to me as though they kept pursuing their high growth model.

      Instead of opening more stores, they should just have more than 1 bar inside each store. Yet management opted to change their cup logos from green to brown, give away promotions, and lock down all of the stores for 3 hours of training?! I can't help but laugh.

      Cheap? Perhaps... but I wouldn't delude myself into expectations that it will rebound to previous valuations any time soon.
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    • Thu Jul 24th 08:46 AM
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      Will Tate Approve Radio Merger with $20 Million Fine?
      Do shareholders or customers have any legal recourse against the FCC? Seriously. Do they? None of their actions have had the consumer in mind. As a Sirius subscriber, I couldn't wait for the merger to go through and the manner and reasoning with which the FCC dragged its feat is sickening.
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    • Mon Jul 21st 00:51 AM
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      Has the FCC Gone Communist?
      Brazen23,

      At the point government controls private enterprises, it's communism. Listing degrees of government control is simply splitting hairs.

      While I have no problems with 'monopolies', because I think the market will mediate them eventually -- like Microsoft, for instance, which had vast control for many software applications like Internet Explorer, and Windows, has begun to lose significant market share to other offerings with no goverment assistance to those alternatives.

      Nevertheless, I have cannot understand how Siri/XM can be called a monopoly. First of all, there was a time when SIRI did not exist, and XM was the SOLE PROVIDER of Satellite Radio! Was there any talk of a monopoly back then?

      I'm a Sirius subscriber, and I do not own the stock. The reason I got Sirius was because I hated listening to the public radio stations that played the same songs, which were constantly interrupted by commercials. I chose to Pay for satellite radio to replace terrestrial radio. REPLACE is the key word.

      Before that, there were no options. Terrestrial Radio was the monopoly!!!

      Under the guise of consumer interest, the NAB is trying to protect its interests in the name of capitalism , and the illusory claims of a monopoly. But the stark truth is that the NAB is simply reacting to its loss of monopolistic control over the radio waves and is using the FCC in its fight to sustain its own monopoly!
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    • Thu Jul 17th 13:48 PM
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      Offshore Drilling Isn't the Answer - Supply and Demand Is
      jaybird,

      Read my post again. Diesel and jet fuel were seperated from gasoline, and paired up with petro-chemicals. Gasoline, therefore, accounts for ~45% of a barrel of oil, and everything else accounts for 55%. I am correct, you're just not reading what I wrote.
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    • Thu Jul 17th 09:33 AM
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      Offshore Drilling Isn't the Answer - Supply and Demand Is
      Actually, short term demand for oil has been proven to be IN-elastic. IF gas prices go to $5 or $6, I'll still have to drive to work in my gas guzzling truck. However, in the long run, people will end up car pooling, driving less, buying fuel efficient vehicles which would then help curb demand -- if not just curb the growth of the demand. Besdies, America's Oil consumption is about the same as it was in 2004. Also, even if supply will increase at a later date, it can have dramatic effects on prices today.

      However, a more importnant point many people refuse to acknowledge is what a Oil is used for. Most of a barrel of oil is used to produce diesl fuel for things like trucks, ships, trains as well as various oil fuels for industrials, jet fuel, asphalt, tar, home heating oil, propane, wax, and other petro chemicals like beauty products, plastics, synthetic fabrics, and pharmaceutical drugs. Thus, less than 45% of a barrel of oil is actually converted into Gasoline.

      Since most of the consumption of oil is Not as a result of driving cars, an economic down turn results in industrials to produce less products, thus curbing their use/demand of oil. This is also why price of Oil has been cyclical - rising during good times, and falling during recessions.

      Here's an interesting fact to consider: 9 of 10 previous postwar recessions began shortly after a big spike in the price of oil. Yet, those recessions always slashed oil prices dramatically. People who have been predicting both a nasty US recession and $250 oil prices are contradicting themselves.

      (To give credit where credit is due, the information I cite is from an article written by Alan Reynolds of the CATO institute. )
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    • Tue Jul 15th 09:38 AM
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      Why Are Oil Prices So High? Gold Solves the Riddle
      Good article. Instead of blaming oil companies for price hikes, the public should hold the government responsible for a weaker dollar. Unfortunately, the concept of inflation doesn't seem to register with the general public -- nor with the Fed.
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    • Tue Jul 15th 09:24 AM
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      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      SEC is investigating 'false rumors' -- isn't that an oxymoron? Besides, rumors are inherently dubious, and should not be taken at face value.

      Still, it's a common fact that Bear Stearns collapsed because it was a horrible counter party that refused and negotiated liquidity requests. As a result of their subpar business practices, no one wanted to do business with them and demanded their money, which was the final nail in the coffin.
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    • Thu Jul 10th 09:13 AM
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      Apple Releases 3G iPhone Friday: This One Has Greater Mass Appeal
      You forget to mention that subscription is going up by $10/month. So, you'll be paying an additional $240 for a 2 year contract. Add that to the $199 & $299 iPhones,a nd you get a $439 & $539 for the phones. Considering the $500 price tag, you cited, for the original iPhone... these are More expensive. It's crafty pricing, but at least people will be getting a better phone.
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