max Zeledon

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    • Sun Nov 9th 19:43 PM
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      Rating: +1 -3
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      Nassim Taleb: Renegade Trader with Renegade Ideas - That Work
      Cute article. But here is the only problem with this story: The subprime crisis and stock meltdown was not a Black Swan--everyone with half a brain and some common sense not to trust quant models or Wall Street charlatans knew what was coming over a year ago. The hedge fund managers I know were short 15 months ago. This was not a black swan.at all. The only ones who didn't know anything was CNBC and Jim Cramer!
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    • Sun Nov 9th 19:40 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nassim Taleb: Renegade Trader with Renegade Ideas - That Work
      Cute article. But here is the only problem with this story: The subprime crisis and stock meltdown was not a Black Swan--everyone with half a brain and some common sense not to trust quant models or Wall Street charlatans knew what was coming over a year ago. The hedge fund managers I know were short 15 months ago. This was not a black swan.at all. The only ones who didn't know anything was CNBC and Jim Cramer!
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    • Thu Oct 30th 20:14 PM
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      Commented on:
      Caterpillar: Revving Up Growth
      china and India certainly won't bail out the global economy, but that does not mean they won't continue to grow while we slug through this mess. I go by what experts are saying--keeping in mind that the data is not entirely accurate. But here is the evidence: China's economy expanded 11.9% last year--a pace that has obviously slowed down this year. Nevertheless, the IMF thinks the Chinese economy will grow 9.7% in 2008 and 9.3% next year. That's good enough for me even if we're off by two percentage points.

      Both China and India are prepared to ramp up government spending when it comes to infrastructure in order to boost their domestic economies. China has $1.8 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, so yes I expect growth to continue because they have the liquidity to support state-sponsored projects.

      The dynamics in the emerging markets are much different than in the developed world. The emerging economies will have much more government support--particularly China and India because they need the infrastructure. But that's my belief and I'm willing to take the risk.
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    • Mon Oct 27th 22:11 PM
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      Staying Away from iShares MSCI Brazil ETF
      @ khwender:

      Look, our expectations and assumptions about the world seldom match reality. This is a huge crisis. We don't know what's going to happen over the next couple of years. The fall in exports to the U.S. and Europe will have devastating consequences for Brazil and other BRIC nations. To what extent? I don't know. Also, hedge funds are dropping like flies and I just don't think people understand the power these institutions had over the market. Many hedge funds were playing the “carry trade” in Brazil. They were borrowing Yen at a very low rate and they were investing the proceeds in Brazil. When things got rough for the real they had to dump. just don't see how EWZ will gain any momentum right now.

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    • Mon Jun 16th 08:36 AM
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      Commented on:
      Will 2008 Be Google’s End Of Innocence?
      Excellent take on Google and its future prospects. Google will continue to be huge, but regulators and competitors will make future growth much more difficult.
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    • Thu May 22nd 12:20 PM
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      EWZ Not a True Indicator of Brazilian Economy
      The government's Applied Economic Research Institute found the richest 10 percent of Brazilians control 75 percent of the country's wealth, according to an analysts of figures mostly from 2006.

      www.iht.com/articles/a...
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    • Thu May 22nd 12:04 PM
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      EWZ Not a True Indicator of Brazilian Economy
      US-centric view? This is amusing. I'm from Latin America and travel to the region all the time. I know what life is really like in Latin America for the average worker and the middle class--the people who make those economies work. In Brazil the middle class is not moving up like in India, Russia, and China. I'm not the one who opted to compare Brazil to other BRICs, but since that's the benchmark that's what I used and by all measures it lags behind. Look at the numbers and compare. Opinions? I'm not gonna do your homework, but the numbers don't look so good for Brazil. Look them up yourself--Goldman Sachs has a great report on Brazil and so does the World Bank and the IMF. There is a lot of hype on Wall Street and that's because they are making a killing from the commodities boom, but these things function via a boom/bust cycle which unlike in the U.S. where you get a mild recession in between these things truly paralyze emerging economies for years and even decades. Read the economic history of Brazil, please! We have history to show us how these booms end. My only point was that this is not sustainable in the long term. Not under the current social and economic conditions. I'm not recommending anybody to buy this ETF right now.

      Yes they found oil in Brazil. Well, Venezuela is drowning in oil yet look at the hardships Venezuela is going through--high unemployment, inflation, food shortages, declining GDP and productivity. Why? The political and economic culture is erasing any gains from oil. Sure, Brazil is not run by Chavez, but do you think Lula doesn't have corruption?

      The sarcastic remark about investing in foreign markets was not necessary because there are plenty of countries that are relatively safer alternatives simply because they are well-diversified and fiscally responsible. Chile! The ECH fund is less known and it is not as hyped up in the news because you don't have the massive speculation we have in Brazil, but it is a better selection in my view.

      Oh, yes, China and India are very poor nations, but they also have a middle class larger than the U.S. population
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    • Fri May 9th 10:34 AM
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      Coca Cola: Olympic Sponsorship is a Profitable Tradition
      Shaun:

      You're research is very specific to China and it will be interesting to visit the numbers when Coca Cola releases earnings at the end of the year. I'm willing to bet sales will go up as they did last. But I'm also addressing the global market.

      Billions of people watch the Olympics and that's a historically proven platform for Coca Cola in terms of brand exposure. The exposure is huge around the word. I'm not just talking about China (a tea drinking nation by the way where Coca Cola sells other products besides Coke to please local taste). The Olympics and World Cup soccer are the two most important international sporting events and brand linkage to these events increase brand awareness.

      While there was a great deal of controversy over Coca Cola's sponsorship of the Beijing Olympics there is no evidence to suggest this has hurt sales. In fact, Coca Cola sales are up across the board despite the backing of the controversial Olympic torch tour. And the public has known about its sponsorship for years. The balance is in good shape.

      As I a researcher I've learned that what people say does not always reflect what they do. As for Lenovo and others brands you mention in your Forbes article I suspect their problems are beyond the sponsorship of the Olympic games. They have an image problem that has nothing to do with the Olympics.

      Consider this as well: Coca-Cola, Visa and McDonald's are long-term sponsors of the Olympic Games; if Beijing fall short of commercial expectations they will move on to London 2012. People are not going to link these brands to Beijing beyond this summer.

      There is also no consistent research showing consumers make buying decisions based on their political views--in developing markets it's about price, feeling good, and value. I don't think Coke drinkers in Hungary or Costa Rica will boycott Coca Cola because they are sponsoring the Beijing Olympics. But I'm willing to bet they will be drinking a Coca Cola beverage while they watch the 100m dash.
      That's why this political boycott talk is nonsense.




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