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Latest Comments1081 Comments
Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?
Loral Space & Communications
10Q Page 60
Liquidity & Capital Resources: Paragraph 3 & 4
SS/L has a $100 million undrawn commitment to Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. under an Amended and Restated Customer Credit Agreement, secured by the two satellites under construction and subject to a number of conditions set forth therein. (See Note 11 to the financial statements (I am adding that's on page 23, para 3 of the 10Q)). Were Sirius to meet all of these conditions and draw this commitment in full, Loral would be required to examine alternatives to preserve its liquidity, including the sale of any or all borrowings under this facility. Notwithstanding that the Sirius satellite collateral is pledged solely to SS/L, the sale of Sirius borrowings under this facility, given the current market value of Sirius unsecured debt, could be at discounts of 20% to 40% and result in SS/L incurring a significant loss. Over the next 12 months, Loral believes that it has adequate resources to operate its business in such an event.
Current economic conditions, including the credit crisis, have generated concerns regarding the ability of customers to make payments under satellite construction contracts with SS/L. Though most of our customers are substantial corporations for whom creditworthiness is generally very good, we have other customers who are either highly leveraged or are in the developmental stage and are not yet fully funded. Customers that are not fully funded or are facing near-term maturities on their existing debt present significant financing risk in today’s market. This financing risk could require them to delay payments or seek financial relief from SS/L. If customers fall behind or are unable to meet their payment obligations, SS/L’s liquidity will be adversely affected. As of September 30, 2008, customers that management believes may have significant financing risk accounted for billed and unbilled accounts
------ The 10Q of Loral does not state if any pre payments have been made, but that the $100 M facility with conditions met by Sirius, would be lent, but immediately resold on the debt market. Also that given the current rate agreement committed to by Loral to Sirius, a draw would cause a substantial loss on the credit market given Sirius' discounted debt condition to Loral on the resale of the debt.
I am not sure that having the manufacturer of your satellites not yet fully constructed or launched yet, be abused this way is a good idea. Currently, Loral has 127M in cash with around 27M restricted to meet other agreements to operate its business. The $100M facility, although committed to, would wipe Loral's cash which is why they would have to go to the debt markets and resell this debt agreement at a 20 - 40 % loss . The facility is viable but, to Loral's demise in the short run. A questionable business practice at best if used for anything but the satellite manufacture and launch IMHO
Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?
Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?
The Nasdaq institutional holdings breakdown is more user family in being able to format the report and sort the data out. Nasdaq is showing a doubling in ownership since July 1st and confirms that the biggest changes occur 45 days after the quarter closes which would have been last week for Q3.
Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?
The deeper we dig the more generic the info seems to become. I have heard the 50% number thrown around but, when I get a quote on Sirius on Ameritrade or E*trade that % is much lower. The overview quote is at 22.8% on both for institutional ownership. I do know that in following this number on these sites, that it has doubled in last two weeks from 11%. As you say though, I am not sure of their source or how current the number is or why such a large disparity from nasdaq. As a trend fine, but I really want to be able to see large transaction data, and direction in more current time frames. Even End of the Week numbers would be helpful.
Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?
An important point and your math is correct, sorry for the mix up and thanks for double checking. There isn't any one day that the share volume was at that price in the quarter reported. Even multi day purchases would have had to have been in the last days of Sept or a private sale.
In general mffais.com reports its results on MF based on changes from each company's share volume from the last time the company reported information using SEC 13F information and the equities (SIRI's) cusip identification number. Further looking at the Ameriprise transaction, as
reported in mfais.com reveals last reporting Ameriprise had 6.35M shares and added 168.5M shares this reporting period taken off the 13F statement for now a total of 174.7M shares at an average price of $.57 cents / share. It would appear that not much more than that can be gleaned from these numbers. Dates of the purchases are not available, but as discussed above, at this price multiple purchases of shares over several days at the end of the quarter would have gotten them their. At best, without a company filing an mid quarter 13F, we are looking at quarterly changes in each company reports trend; add some, sold some, new position, sold position. For companies with comparisons available, we can also see how the fund has performed since a position was taken, in the mffais column all the way to the right. Changes in mffais reporting from week to week is less relevant than changes corresponding to MF reporting quarters, IMO.
Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?
You are write to check quarterly closing dates to make sure what is or isn't included. Ameriprise Financial 13F-HR filing of 11/10/08 was for their quarter ending 9/30/08. That quarter then would be 7/1/08 - 9/30/08. The date that I site was from a candlestick chart review and 7/29 was a day that included the 1.75 price intra-day and the Volume that day was over 250M shares, so that is my estimated transaction date. The other filing dates you stated cover 1 Q ending March 30th and filed on 5/6 and 2Q ending on June 30 th and filed on 8/12. Most companies take 4-5 weeks from the quarters closing date to report their results to the SEC.
Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?
Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?
The T Rowe Price purchase for 84.7M shares was also at a $1.75 purchase price. These two purchases reflect 250M shares bought by these two mutual funds, when the merger was announced but before the Aug 5 SEC merger filing details, which would include the 7% convertibles that immediately put a beating on everyone. Don't want to be a wet blanket here, but I don't want to be fooled again...... by skewed data, released when we would all like to hear good news.
Who'll Blink First: Sirius, Loral or the Banks?
A follow up to the mffais.com info
Having seen sudden changes in mffais.com, mutual fund investment, data before, I did a little research using companies adding to their position as reported. Utilizing this info and that on Edgar on line I was able to understand why the sudden change in numbers being reported. As Sirius reported it 3Q numbers, so too did many of the Mutual Funds in the form of a SEC form 13F-HR. Now mffais gets its information directly from these SEC filings. The date mffais records is the SEC filing date, not the actual transaction date.
For instance one transaction which caught my and others eye was the 174.7M shares purchase by Ameriprise and reported on mffais. Certainly these shares, if a current purchase ,would be significant in trying to figure out the financing or street sentiment. But nowhere other than mffais was this reported. In back tracking through Edgar, the transaction is recorded with a date on the 3Q 13F-hr as 174.7M shares at a purchase value of $99.6 M shares. This comes out to a $1.75 putting the purchase at just at the merger of 7/29 IMHO.
In checking into several of the other transactions recorded, since 11/3, I found that most transactions reported on mffais.com are from these mutual fund company 3Q filings on their 13F-HR forms. Although I believe that this still represents a positive trend, I do not see how the information reflects current MF manger's sentiment. If we apply the mffais reporting changes of the last two weeks to the filings of MFM's reporting to the SEC, the changes in mfais reflect this reporting not real time street sentiment.
Sirius Finally Provides Wall Street the Clarity It Demanded
mffais numbers are the best I've seen in a long time. I think you are right that the winds of change are building for the better... 58% buying is way up from just 3 0r 4 weeks ago when that was the selling side of the equation... looks very encouraging. GS' Weinkes has it a .25 cents and needs to look at the numbers after the CC, and now his firm increases their position buy 7+Mil shares....... interesting indeed.
Sirius Finally Provides Wall Street the Clarity It Demanded
I cannot deny that I enjoy watching Bret bring new life to the Jets. He brings a level of discipline and maturity in QB position that has been lacking for years and he's not afraid to go for the Gold when it matters most. He is proving again why he is a true Hall of Famer while executing in New York...... (seeking alpha is their any way this post can be anonymous??)
Sirius Finally Provides Wall Street the Clarity It Demanded
s162
you could be right with the down volume being a good indicator of a turning point here. As I told killerkaul, I am still too cautious to interpret low volume as anything other than a sign that momentum down has been broken for the time being. Breaking downward momentum is monumental to an upward sentiment, but needs to be executed over the next few days with some increased volume. Otherwise its just sideways and hopefully bottoming. The longer we go sideways the less positive it becomes, especially with low volume. Any positive refinancing news will cement the direction. Weak volume indicates indecision and the POTENTIAL for a turn in direction. Next week will show they will show their intent..... IMHO
163888
I know you have said it all before.... , but repetition and continued company execution, makes us all believers and profitable in the long run... good to have you back in the conversation.....
Sirius Finally Provides Wall Street the Clarity It Demanded
TMA: $140 -.66 in the last year SP's spread, RS on 9/26/2008 at 1 for 10, 5 days later paid their interest payment with more notes (not new shares), at 18%, no merger, sub prime borrowers are TMA's primary market, focused on ARM mortgages, doesn't even resemble Sirius' business model. Similar because they have debt coming due??? Sirius used shares so far to pay their 2009 Feb debt (dilution of the common, not a RS and then payment with paper), and will use some configuration of Cash, Bank Facility, or Convertible Bond, maybe, but doubtful for the rest. Sirius revenues growing, but granted, if GM, Ford, and Chrysler fail, so won't Sirius. What? Are they comparable because they are a distressed company right now? Why not compare them to Citi, GE, DSX, EXON, LDK, or any number of companies that are down 40%, to be kind... Back off on this company.......... There are so many other "Whipping Boys" out there..... Why is Sirius XM Radio your favorite, Red Headed, Step Child to take to the Wood Shed??? You guys are amazing....
Buy the way I have a Red Headed step child, and she is one of the most precious people in my life... Talented..... Well Educated..... Brilliant in her tolerance for me.... and her compassion for the ignorance of others.... Unlike myself.... but she is teaching me..... and I am hoping that its not to late for me to Learn......
Sirius Finally Provides Wall Street the Clarity It Demanded
was on the road today...... looked like a day in London, fog..... drizzle and damp.... not even a good breeze off the Atlantic.... They tell me the Canadians are going to help us out with a good chill, a little wind from the Arctic, just to clear the air here.... My Pat's put up a good fight last night, but in the end, Brett from Green Bay, taught them why the Jets said 40 somthin is young, and he's gonna give them (punk arse Jets) another chance to prove their worth, here, when the snow starts to blow........ in December.... hope you had a good day and keep that climbing gear in the ready.... but I think there's still time for the nay sayers to have some fun.....
Sirius Finally Provides Wall Street the Clarity It Demanded
why do you bother at this point.... I agree your the debt master..... TMA is on its way to TARP or some other consolidation.... pick a company that at least sells something tangible..... entertains someone somewhere..... and has close to the same amount of shares outstanding or market cap ...... or else who cares??? certainly not me..... don't even understand your point, what RS or not, yes or no, if it keeps the company from being delisted then I vote yes.... Go read TMA's 3rd Q report ..... then come back and tell me how they have so much in common....