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Latest Comments1081 Comments
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
I am not responding here to take I side. I have voted NO to the RS because I don't beleive it is necessary at this time, but on the public record, in 3Q Conference Call, Mel has stated that the RS is to have the ability to avoid being delisted from Nasdaq. If he uses the RS for ANY OTHER PURPOSE he will be sued for misrepresenting management's intentions. The fact that he has been silent, other than to make that statement and to sign off on the actual statement written into the SEC filed Definitive Proxy Statement, just shows his arrogance not his Criminal Intent.
Also, his options are worthless and his average share price purchased on the common market is $3.76 / share, with a total of around 8M common shares not options.
You asked: Again, if it's not to pay off debt and get ready for private equity, what's the point of wiping out evryone's investment?
You and a lot of other people have made the assumption that Mel is a crook. I have not. Until evidence, recognized in a court of law, proves his guilt, I will not subscribe to all the allegations. Managers of any company, unless they want to go to jail, which would be counter to most manager's goals when they wake up in the morning, run their companies. They do not control Stock Price. Hedge funds and IB's do, and their intentions should also be investigated, but Executive Managers generally do not.
I have personally been killed on this company with the current stock price. Given all of the things that Imaze above posted, I am still invested and looking for this company to succeed. Currently I have a better average cost per share than Mel does and my shares at .14 cents are worth more than his Millions of dollars in options.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
I don't think I have ever heard anyone say it better....... I mean WTF are they really thinking about??? Nothing since the Merger has made any difference at all. I feel like we are still in the premerger holding pattern. Clean House in the Marketing Department would be a Great Start.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
I mean even in M. H. Fox interview he said that Mel said.... Mel would love to take the company private at these levels in his interview with a WSJ reporter... Anyone who saw the entire interview that Mel had knows that is false. He said he would have to bring the stock price up and eliminate the debt before taking the company private could even be entertained. This is why I believe most feel he wants the dilution, RS, then eliminate debt, and take the company private. Without any definitive information from the company, or shareholders against these actions, we are left in the dark with nothing but, ....... OK Tyler, Faith in the system that it will all get worked out in due time.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
Interesting that at the time of the merger waiting period ,C3SR was clearly supported by NAB and their legal team. I wonder why M. H. never was enjoined in his lawsuit by NAB if, in fact, he was that effective at holding off the FCC decision. I read Brandon's article on this, but it didn't seem right to me. It might have been a little puffing of Micheal's chest in discussions with Brandon regarding his own relevance. Otherwise The NAB would have pushed this issue along to further delay the proceedings, not just with the FCC but earlier with the DOJ, don't you think??
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
If they use the rule change to bail out the unregulated CDS market that became the insurance to Mortgage Backed Securities then we are in trouble. Suspending or limiting the amount of devaluation that M to M requires for actual mortgages that have an asset attached will be a good thing. I personally feel they should limit the amount of devaluation that can occur in any given quarter on these assets. Slowing down the deleveraging will allow the system to revalue on its own eventually without shocking the system. The CDS is an off book, unregulated transaction market, that allowed people to buy the risk of a mortgage backed security to default, without knowing anything about the underlying assets. It was all virtual money linked to virtual assets so they need to get virtually f**k'd IMHO. Just slowing down the M to M in the MBS arena will actually slow down the CDS losses as a secondary outcome. Tax payers should not pay for the financial engineering that took place on these derivative transactions.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
By the way, I am confident that with no further rule changes or extensions from NASDAQ, that if the price of Sirus Xm's stock is not over a $1 by Sept. 2009, when their plan for a 180 day extension will have to be submitted, that I will no longer be in this stock or care about the company's outcome and neither will most here because it will have already have been decided.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
Thank you for you comments, but you know that your use of the word Faith here was controversial to many. Provocative, one might say. Sarcastic, others might proclaim. As a writer of articles, that is fine for debate and discussion purposes. Almost all, use the word faith in a religious context, or with words and phrases like Blind, Leap of, In Good, Having, and so on. In the discussion of a business' relationship to shareholders, business partners, and consumers the use of faith is foolery. It belongs with phrases like trust me, the check is in the mail, would I lie to you, and the like.
Tyler also, and correct me if I am wrong, but the delisting notice from the NASDAQ comes with an automatic 180 day compliance period, in which the companies notified have to bring the stock price up above $1 for 10 consecutive days. Before this 180 day period expires, the company failing to comply with the $1 rule, need to submit a plan to bring the stock price up over a $1 when asking for an additional 180 days. The RS would have to be part of that plan for extension request and is not needed now. In addition, there is no evidence that the market conditions that existed in October, when NASDAQ suspended the rule for member companies, has improved. In fact, conditions have deteriorated and their is no reason to think that they would not extend the rule suspension before Jan. 16, 2009. If extended this discussion is moot and their is no immediate need for the RS as described by management.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
............. Sirus/XM can suffer the loss of higher churn to the percentage of subscriber aquistions just based off the fact that operating losses have been reduced by downsizing the staff of both the old XM and old sirius companies.
With all due respect, check your metrics. Sirius cannot suffer the loss of higher churn. Churn is current subscribers opting out. This is bad in any scenario, but inevitable in any subscription business. Churn requires matching growth (new subscribers) to maintain current subscriber totals and revenues. As I said above, focusing on existing subscriber retention and upgrades, is a way to take the pressure off of new subscriber growth. Subscriber retention and upgrades are also place at higher margins. Churn needs to go down or stay the same with growth tempered to equilibrium, for static subscribers numbers, say 19M, to be still profitable. So basically, higher churn puts increased pressure on new subscription growth. Higher churn is a loss in chipset subsidy already payed, causing a lost opportunity to get lower expense per sub revenue going forward. Higher churn rates are also a sympton of less product appeal at a given price point ,from a consumer point of view.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
Here! Here! Announcing something to surprise the Shorts would be great. Bring back the uptick rule sounds good, but with the electronic trading desks on this penny stock, I don't know how effective it would be. Buying back common share debt should be on the list, but paying for Feb 09 and May 09 debt should be a priority. I hear your frustration. Waiting on this company is all we longs seem to do.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
As a matter of fact, it costs Sirius to generate new subscribers. A lot of their debt to this point is from their choosing accelerated growth, unique and expensive content, and market share, over cost containment and generating FCF. Sirius can still generate good solid revenue without accelerating growth and attain FCF and profitability. As a monopoly, Sirius can get back to fundamentals without the induced competition from the duopoly that caused the race for subscribers. Retaining existing subscribers can be more profitable than bringing on new ones. The metric of significance in this business model is Churn, lost subs.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
If the $280 is something that you don't mind loosing then fine. I have to ask though, why Sirius in this market? There are so many good quality companies in this market, making money, who's stock will easily double upon an economic recovery. Sirius' stock will not be trading at $5 any time soon IMHO. Their are good alternatives to invest in, I would not gamble here. Most of us in this stock are here because we have lost thousands of dollars in equity value in this stock. If you really like the stock, wait until after February 2009 and see how it fairs. Don't worry about the stock price right now, worry about whether this company is still surviving later. I do not believe this stock is for a new investor unless you just like to gamble. IMHO (I am not a financial adviser, or an armchair CEO so take my comments for what their worth)
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
Not looking for supporters, I can do my own homework. I am looking for some well thought out discussion as to what the company can and is doing. What is your intent???
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
how is authorizing more shares without the RS going to dilute the shares of this stock more than it already is? The SP is already .14 cents.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
What Deal with GS at the Merger? I keep hearing that the company did a deal with GS and that GS is the one shorting all the stock. In all the filings I have read, I find no evidence of any deal with GS other than their 127M of Feb 2009 2-1/2% notes that they hold which was a deal done in 2004.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
I will vote yes to the Share Dilution. Given the current credit markets and the stock price at .14 cents, I don't want to handicap their ability to use shares to secure debt. I don't want them to use shares for debt, but I don't want them to be given an excuse to seek BK protection wiping all common shares out.
I don't see any reason this company should go into bankruptcy unless it cannot refinance its debt. Share availability at these prices does make the current level of authorized shares inadequate to provide security against the debt. This company had authorization for 4.5B shares with a stock price of $3.00. Why would any shareholder be afraid of dilution when the stock price is now at .14 cents and there is less than 1 B shares left for debt security. Is it because 8 B shares is going to make the stock price go to .07 cents? Who really believes that? I feel that the dilution is already in the stock price, but the authorization has not yet been given for the company to move forward and secure their debt. Then it is up to the company's management to earn my Respect, Trust, and Faith the old fashion way. Execute on the business plan and work your arsses off or be gone.