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Latest Comments1081 Comments
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
Hope you guys had a great Thanksgiving.
The S&P downgrade was a Credit Downgrade on its rating and not an analyst downgrade. They are currently still rate 4 stars by the S & P. The analyst downgrade may follow next week, but other than the Yahoo board, the credit change hasn't hit all of the brokerage listed news reporting facilities yet.
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
As Shure46 above has said and I agree is this Company's product is the Very Best, Pure, Commercial Free Music Content and Uncensored Talk and Music. As an investor I want to make money on my investment, but I do not want the Company to Compromise the Quality of the Product to achieve this goal. It is, after all, what distinguishes them from all the rest.
Your NATIONAL SPONSORSHIP PROGRAM is available now on all of the stations that currently run commercials, so why not fill those slots first, and stop trying to Diminish The Product of this company by diluting it with this lame sponsorship program. After Terrestrial Radio buys Sirius XM and takes them private, you can try your pitch with them.
Your program idea will eventually cost the company its Content-Is-King crown, because once money can be raised in this manner, they will simply increase the amount of commercial exposure that subscribers will have to put up with. Content is more than just genre diversity and depth, it is also the manner of delivery and focus. Without commercials, music listeners are given a unique opportunity to escape all the BS being thrown at them by all of the media options in their life. Currently this is, other than recording your own music which is time consuming, the only Oasis of Media available, and subscribers have been willing to pay for it. This sponsorship program will cost the company an immediate reduction in subscriber numbers, it will definitely increase churn and hurt the company's ability to bring in new subs in this economy. Your numbers are flawed in that your assumptions are for 24/7 participation by sponsors on all music channels. This plan will devastate this company not Save it. IMHO.
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
There aren't any SEC filings to support your claim. It could have been end of the month selling at close of day by an institution closed on Friday. The S&P downgrade on Credit is long over due, given the company's silence on their progress of refinancing and the existing credit crisis.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
I think all is possible, but find the .05 without a bankruptcy filing a tough sell before the meeting. After the meeting maybe. The squeeze I feel is not ever going to happen. Not a squeeze as I understand them. I still feel that with the 260M shares that were lent now being broken down into who knows how many lots, and a daily average of about 52M daily of late, there are plenty of shares to trade daily. Retail investors at these prices are dumping 15 - 50K lots at will and some of the end of the day trades are taking care of some big trades. There was a trade of over 20M shares at the end of the day yesterday. If the shorts just get out to lock in profits, and they don't see any reason to go long because they know what's going on with the share dilution, then where will the squeeze come from. A small climb as you say to high 30's to sucker in the retailers, thinking that now is a good time, and then right back down. High .30's would be great from here and I would also exit my position. IMHO Until after all is known about the financing, the share dilution and the RS, they can easily short this down again. Unless management can surprise us with something that adds shareholder value, I fear this stock is dead until after the Feb & May debt is resolved and your scenario of .05 cents may come true. But as Shure46 said my crystal ball has got a lot of dust on it, and the great conversations above regarding management responsibility from dayworker and yourself, have painted a interesting scenario to watch play out. Squeeze or not, I thing selling into good news about the autos, is a good strategy. My exit price is between .36 -.41 if we are lucky before the meeting. Have a great Thanksgiving and thanks for trying to figure all this out.
Commercials on Sirius XM: Benefit vs. Backlash
I am with you both. I have 4 subscriptions and a boat load of shares right now...... put commercials on my music and I am gone, gone, gone.......
Fill the commercial slots on News, Talk, and Entertainment. Ruin the music content and the company is done....... My only concern with allowing even 5 seconds per hour is once you give 'em an inch, they'll screw with the whole thing.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
I agree that the market is very depressing. Worst November in recent history. I also voted to keep the current board and on dilution, but held off on RS because I don't see it as necessary at this time and just can't trust anyone with that power right now. I know it will probably be approved, but needed to vote my gut and conscience.
The Save Sirius crew is not interested in facts that are actionable in a court of law. At this point I see them as doing more harm than good, but respect their right to have their opinions heard. After all it is a Free Country, that is...... before Taxes, Interest, Depreciation and Amortization.... Isn't It???
I'm holding off until after the holidays, put Novemeber behind us and watch the Auto Buffoons try and save some face with their return to DC., tin cup in hand... and hopefully a plan this time
NM, DSX, are still looking good, but are being severely punished in this climate for reducing and removing their dividends as are all the drybulk shippers. I'd like to know that we can see an upturn in some of the world economies before getting tied up here. At least before you got paid for waiting, now they need to grow to give a decent ROI.
shure46
I agree on the plaque for the Board Rooms ...... Maybe that suggestion should go directly to the Non Managing Directors of Sirius XM....
Happy Thanksgiving all......... regardless of what side of the issues you may find yourself....
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
I posted this on an earlier article before the 3Q reporting:
cos1000
Nov 05 04:16 PM
The only comment I can make about dilution is they currently need 1 Bil shares at .25 to take out the full 250M in Feb debt left (since posted they have taken out an additional $40 M in share for debt swaps). That would take them to very close to their authorized shares of 4.5 B. The company, any company, does not like to go to the additional-share dilution well ... often, if at all to pay debt. Usually they would do this to accommodate a 2 or 3 for 1, which is dilution but is rewarding shareholders as it raises additional capital because of earnings growth being able to support the new EPS. Not the case here.
Here is my take for any of those shareholders who are looking for a Silver, very thin, lining at this time. Authorizing the additional 3.5 B shares to 8 Billion, does not mean that they will be issued. This is a Huge Trust issue which I cannot see retail investors being comfortable with, but is probably necessary at this point. Even at .25 / share, the remaining debt could be taken out for 2009. That is an additional 700 Mil in debt, May and Dec 2009 needing 2.8 Bil shares to accomplish this dilution, still leaving around .75 B shares authorized. If the dilution is already priced in, and without any debt for 2009 left to worry about, it well could be.... and I stress could be.
This action then combined with a RS of even 1 for 20 sometime before Dec 31, 2009, would put the company and, in my opinion, shareholders in a more certain future with only 400 M shares outstanding, after the 1 for 20 RS.
If dilution and debt weren't the issue we would probably be trading at a stock price of 5.5 to 6.0 per share. We have already paid for the RS by holding on to our shares. $6 diluted by 20 times is .30 /sh and $5.50 diluted by 20 times is .28. Do you see how we might already have paid for the RS and share dilution? I am not saying that I think this is correct for management to do. I am saying that it is what the company has done. The question I have is This The Plan???
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
Your description of what has been done is well thought out and makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately for us all we are left to second guess motive, and speculate on scenarios moving forward. In all case that have been laid out, I am still puzzled by two main issues that seem to get in the way of the dilute the stock, reverse split, pay debt with new shares scenario. They are:
1. The Reverse Split has been declared by Mel and Senior Management to be necessary to prevent the company from being delisted from NASDAQ.
2. There are still a large percentage of Institutional Owners of the company's common shares who have already lost equity as all other common shareholders have. Their resources for taking legal action are much more formidable than individual investor groups.
It would appear to me that Mel asking for dilution and recieving it, registering the shares and using them to assist in providing incentives to debt holders or to just pay off debt is as is stated in the Proxy.
The legal rub would come when Mel, does as you suggest, and executes a Reverse Split, right after this massive dilution, without the delisting inevitability. This action, based on Mel's pronouncements, is not elective for Mel. He has represented it as an action that may be required to avoid delisting. My concern is that Mel has said his intent at the CC, and then has written it into the Proxy as to be at the Board's sole discretion. The Board might be ok, but I beleive Mel might be open to some pretty serious litigation. He has never once said that it was because there were too many shares outstanding, or because he wanted to develop a Naked Short defense for the Stock. He has only spoken about delisting.
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
amen brother..........
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
amen brother..........
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
I answered your question. What part of a courtroom don't you understand??? I really don't care what I read posted hear or by MH. Bring it into a courtroom...... instead of just LOL
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
Sirius Investors Face Difficult Decisions: It All Boils Down to Faith
Lynch mobs are illegal. Vigilante justice is illegal. What part of a court of law, which imposes testimony under oath, and a chance to defend yourself while facing your accusers, don't you get. I have heard your side and M. H. a thousand times. Now bring Mel into a court room an let us all hear his.
dayworker
I can appreciate your concern as I am also concerned. The Proxy does not say that they are at this time looking to issue shares. It states that they are looking to register and be authorized to issue shares up to 8 Billion, an increase of 3.5 Bil from their current 4.5B authorized with around 3.5B issued. To date they have not issued the shares that they are authorized. A registration of autorized shares is not the same as issuing those shares is point 1.
The RS authorization for the purpose of delisting from the NASDAQ expires on Dec. 31, 2009. If authorized it can be used or included in a plan to file an extension for 180 day compliance period from the NASDAQ. If it is not authorized it cannot be included in any plan to avoid delisting, point 2.
Under current shares authorized vs outstanding they have 1 B shares left to issue, worth $140 M at .14/sh. They still need to pay down or renogotiate $210 M of Feb 09 debt. They also need to have a way to secure their $ 350 B of May 2009 debt due, that needs to be renegotiated and extended. This usually takes something more than a hand shake, stock warrants representing equity making those share now issued, restricted, and outstanding. What shares can they use right now. Even if they do a RS, without additional shares there aren't enough to manage and secure debt just through May 2009. Here is another scenario even if they get by May 2009. If in Aug. 2009 a plan for an extension of 180 days needs to be submitted, there will not be enough time to submitt the plan without authorization of a RS. That authorization if it does not pass now, 12/18, will need to sought again by July 09, for inclusion in the plan at an additional cost to the company. If the RS is authorized through this process and indeed is implemented in Sept 09 or even Dec 09, without additional share authorization a 1 for 10 split would reduce the 1 B shares outstanding to 100 M worth 1.40 / sh after the split at the current price. More likely at .14 cents, a 1 for 50 split would be implemented and the 1 B shares would become 20 M shares worth $ 7 / share.
Let's also understand that while I am focussing on authorizing the RS in Aug 2009, we have around 90 M of debt due in Sept 09 and and additional 400 M of debt due in Dec 1, 2009. With a convertible share price of around .69 cents on the Sept 09 debt, Everyone assumed that it would convert to common shares. At this SP it might not and COH would have to be used or more shares. Now you can see that in this last scenario, I am assuming that none of the existing 2008 authorized shares were used for Feb & May 2009 debt purposes. What are the chances of that in this market??
So going into 2009, without authorization of additional shares, and I think 3.5 B is excessive but I don't know, this company's chances of securing what is now around $1 Billion in debt will be impossible. In the current credit market, even if Feb 09 debt is paid with cash on hand, the May 09 Bank facility might want Stock warrants written against a Debt extension. Who knows?
This is why I have voted for the share dilution but against the RS. I do not want to see June 09 have to deal with more than the delisting issue and what is a substantial amount of debt that needs to be secured. They just don't have enough shares to secure this debt, and we might force them into BK because they can't secure or meet debt obligations.