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Latest Comments1081 Comments
Circuit City Bankruptcy May Help Satellite Radio Inventory Levels
Circuit City Bankruptcy May Help Satellite Radio Inventory Levels
Circuit City Bankruptcy May Help Satellite Radio Inventory Levels
No problem in your posting all of your lawsuit .... thoughts...... I posted a link to help you understand the law that you and M. Hartlieb are seeking remedy from on a prior article: Its the RICO act of 1970, Racketeering Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act of 1970. Not RECO....
4 Signs for Further Caution by Satellite Radio Investors - Goldman
Sounds like your in the beginning of nothing but White.... Where I am in New England we don't see that, and even then on a smaller scale, until the end of Dec., Jan....... I live by a lake that consists of three large "ponds". When they freeze, Bart, my dog and I, hike on the lake like it was a Siberian desert.... Sounds bleak but it gets us out on a frosty day in Winter.... Hang in there and keep the block heater plugged in...... as you know make sure the heater is still getting power...
Tomorrow is a day to stay close to your trading platform on this stock......, if it dives, jump in, and if it pops you should wait a couple of days... and get in then (the pop will be nervous excitement, Old Bull, Young Bull kind of thing. Ah, I guess that will have to wait for another day). Anything down in SP here and I am getting back in and working to finish my new long position..... for the next couple of weeks..... Its all relative from here.
Earnings Preview: Sirius XM Radio
Why do you think there will be a surprise after hours??.... that would be SP manipulation for sure. If the numbers are posted in the morning, which I doubt.... that would be a surprise to me. Usually to meet the SEC requirement of reporting, the numbers will come out just before close, or at close, and the conference call would follow.... that's my expectation and tomorrow during the day everyone Else's expectations will play out in due course...... Its the after hour trades that will set Tuesday's tone.... I'm sure their actual filing with the SEC, even though tomorrow is the last day for compliance, will be done in order.
Earnings Preview: Sirius XM Radio
It doesn't change my opinion of Mel at all. All of this information has been fully disclosed. Mel insulted us by calling us, as retail shareholders unsophisticated. He was probably right. I have never attacked Mel, ever on this board or anywhere else. If I felt Mel was a criminal and not operating in shareholder best interest I would lead the charge in his undoing. Just because I might be insulted by what he said, doesn't mean that as I get more sophisticated in my analysis, that he was wrong, or Weinkes for that matter.
All this talk on these boards about law suits and Goldman, has been a distraction created by those shareholders who post here and are regretting their investment.
Just as you, I have been struggling to understand what is going on based on the numbers and publicly disclosed SEC reports. No conspiracy theories, no paranoia out of control, just analysis of what is available to the common shareholder. That is the only discussion that I feel is productive and useful in determining what to do next. The information I have provided is available for anyone to read from the SEC filings. Most, including myself, have been so concerned with SP movement, that doing research and analysis has fallen by the wayside.
Morgan Stanley is a relevant player here and soon we will see to what extent.... Just because, as disclosed, Mel negotiated the deal doesn't mean anything illegal took place. Morgan Stanley has been involved with these two companies since inception. Their profiting from that relationship is not something that I would be oppose to, so long as the current shareholders profit with them.
Earnings Preview: Sirius XM Radio
Earnings Preview: Sirius XM Radio
Earnings Preview: Sirius XM Radio
Shure46... , 3Q is historically a less revenue driven quarter for Sirius and XM prior to merger, with this merger and consolidation expenses, I really cannot see that changing much..... Also as far as GS is concerned, their only direct investment presently released, as far as I know, is their 127M Feb converts. As much as Weinkes has hurt us, I have never subscribed to the GS conspiracy, because public record doesn't support it and no one has showed me how it does. GS's equity position could be taken out with cash on hand or as part of an agreement with some other entity to pay GS off. That would fit in with Mel's attitude toward GS and would cut them out of the "cheap" .25 cent shares.
S162, SD, and anyone, some puzzling info...
In reading and comparing the Prospectus Supplement (424B5) of 10/29/08, to the initial Prospectus dated 7/30/08 identifying Morgan Stanley Capital and UBS AG, London Branch as recipients of the lent shares and underwriters of the 7% Notes, there was an accounting of the common shares that I found interesting and puzzling. The Oct 29th Supplemental identifies the 5% holders of the common shares sold in conjunction with the Notes and GS is no where to be found in that table listed on P. S-8. That does mean that the stock is being manipulated by others in the arbitrage play of owning these 7% notes.
Also, In the July prospectus there were an estimated 262M shares lent with the possibility of more. In this October supplement there are 293M shares registered with only the 85M accounted for with 5% owners. I doubt the rest of the shares, 208M, is broken up into small lots. I am assuming and I could be wrong, that Morgan Stanley and UBS or some combination of the two, are still holding on to those Lent Shares. Being Sophisticated Investors, could Morgan Stanley, who is also involved in the issuance of the Feb 09 debt, be holding onto these shares for themselves?
Knowing the stock price is going to go down with all the Hedging activity, and with full disclosure as filed in the prospectus, keeping these shares and then going long would be beneficial. It is easy to see how 100M shares lent of the 293M registered could be causing all the shorting activity.
In Addition, the original 7/30 prospectus broke the lent shares into two lots:
-----183M shares at a fixed initial offering of 1.50, which brought the stock price down to these levels.
------79M shares to be sold from time to time on the open market at market or negotiated prices.
Also, the full disclosure comes in the agreement that additional shares, the 79M, that are lent on the market or sold for shorting purposes, require the share borrowers to take an equal position long either directly, or in the form of derivatives, to avoid the effect of the short.
My feeling here is that Morgan Stanley is playing a more significant role here than anyone has given notice to. With all of the GS reports taking this stock down, there isn't any evidence that they are in a position to benefit at this point in time. The real benefactor hear is probably going to be MS and UBS as underwriters and Share Borrowers, placed in control at the time of the merger and who will also now probably play a roll in refinancing the Feb 09 debt.
Let me know your thoughts.... ......
Earnings Preview: Sirius XM Radio
In all fairness, I don't think I was quite as optimistic as s162 was, although if his scenario plays out he may be right. My cautions were on Churn and Subscriber Numbers in the 3rd Q reporting and having subs be above 150K net, which I felt still would be viewed negatively. I also said that I wasn't as optimistic about the Bank Financing of the Feb 09 debt, and though as I had said before, that the dilution of shares was probably a more likely debt resolution.
My Optimism was more in line with the new administration not letting the Auto Industry fail. As I said failure of the auto industry drags a lot of vendor partners in BK and Sirius would be among them. Timing as you say will be as necessary as needed to keep them whole while the details and strings attached are worked out by the government. I agree they need to take their time and do it while moving the industry forward.
In other discussions I also related the end of the day buying that was reducing the close price from .28 to .26. With the stock's sideways movement for two days at .28, I put in a limit bid at .26, for 7500 sh, around 15% of my intended position to try this out as a buy in strategy, and it worked. Given the stocks performance in holding at .28 for two days and a obvious manipulation back down to .26 at the end of the day, I am okay with this as an entry point for my buying back in. This is my first buy back since selling at .41 and I am still set to buy more if the stock goes lower. I am never comfortable in trying to predict exact bottom, so this is how I build my position, and not miss any upside potential.
I cannot say that I am optimistic about the numbers that will be coming out on Monday after hours. I have never been that optimistic about 3Q, but I would be really surprised if all we get is blah, blah, blah, on the operation of the company. I do not believe that Mel is manipulating the stock price, although his financing of the converts at the merge is. Mel has had 1 month of B of B and will comment on its acceptance in light of all of the other bad numbers, IMHO. He also needs to address the change in retail distribution and the impact it will have on seasonal sales. I also think that the stock will go down momentarily this week and I will buy back in to the company. I do not think the stock price will be .25 on Dec. 18. I think it will be closer to .45. I also think the stock has the share dilution already into the current price and the shorts know it. Monday will be another interesting day and your assumptions above are as good as anyone's. Enjoy the weekend and we will see on Monday evening what's up..................
Earnings Preview: Sirius XM Radio
www.thecre.com/fedlaw/...
Earnings Preview: Sirius XM Radio
In 1970, as part of the Organized Crime Control Act that included the Illegal Gambling Business Act discussed above, Congress, exercised its broad power once again under the Commerce Clause [136] and enacted RICO. [137] Like the Illegal Gambling Business Act, RICO was intended to eradicate organized crime by attacking the sources of its revenue, such as syndicated gambling or bookmakers. [138] RICO imposes both criminal (imprisonment from 20 years to life, depending on the racketeering activity involved) [139] and civil liability (including treble damages, costs and attorneys fees) [140] for those who engage in certain prohibited acts. Section 1962, sets forth the following prohibited activities:
(a) It shall be unlawful for any person who has received any income derived, directly or indirectly, from a pattern of racketeering activity or through collection of an unlawful debt in which such person has participated as a principal within the meaning of section 2, title 18, United States Code, to use or invest, directly or indirectly, any part of such income, or the proceeds of such income, in acquisition of any interest in, or the establishment or operation of, any enterprise which is engaged in, or the activities of which affect, interstate or foreign commerce. A purchase of securities on the open market for purposes of investment, and without the intention of controlling or participating in the control of the issuer, or of assisting another to do so, shall not be unlawful under this subsection if the securities of the issuer held by the purchaser, the members of his immediate family, and his or their accomplices in any pattern or racketeering activity or the collection of an unlawful debt after such purchase do not amount in the aggregate to one percent of the outstanding securities of any one class, and do not confer, either in law or in fact, the power to elect one or more directors of the issuer.
(b) It shall be unlawful for any person through a pattern of racketeering activity or through collection of an unlawful debt to acquire or maintain, directly or indirectly, any interest in or control of any enterprise which is engaged in, or the activities of which affect, interstate or foreign commerce.
(c) It shall be unlawful for any person employed by or associated with any enterprise engaged in, or the activities of which affect, interstate or foreign commerce, to conduct or participate, directly or indirectly, in the conduct of such enterprise's affairs through a pattern of racketeering activity or collection of unlawful debt.
(d) It shall be unlawful for any person to conspire to violate any of the provisions of subsection (a), (b), or (c) of this section.[141]
Essentially, RICO is an aggressive initiative that is remedial in its purpose by supplementing old methods for fighting crime and providing "new weapons of unprecedented scope for an assault upon organized crime and its economic roots." [142] RICO was enacted, in large part, as a Congressional response to organized crime's financial infiltration of legitimate business operations that affected interstate commerce. [143] Congress wanted to remove the profit from organized crime and separate the racketeer from his or her revenue source. [144] Yet, RICO makes no mention of "organized crime." Instead, Congress chose to target "racketeering activity." The provisions of RICO demand a liberal reading to effectuate this broad Congressional intent. [145] Some courts have even interpreted RICO as legislation that ensures marketplace integrity. [146]
"Section 1962 establishes a threefold prohibition aimed at stopping the infiltration of racketeers into legitimate organizations." [147] Subsection (a) makes it unlawful to invest funds derived from a pattern of racketeering activity or collected from an unlawful debt. [148] "Subsection (b) forbids acquiring or maintaining an interest in an enterprise which affects commerce through a pattern of racketeering activity or through collection of an unlawful debt; and subsection (c) forbids participation in the affairs of such an enterprise through those means."[149]
Regardless of whether the action is criminal or civil, a violation of RICO "requires proof of (1) the existence of an enterprise, (2) either a pattern of racketeering activity or the collection of an unlawful debt, and (3) that the enterprise be engaged in or affect interstate commerce." [150] Section 1961 defines several key terms, such as "racketeering activity," "enterprise,"... "pattern of racketeering activity" a nd "unlawful debt" as follows:
"Racketeering activity" generally means (1) any act or threat involving, among other things, gambling, which is a felony under state law, or (2) an act which is indictable under certain provisions of Title 18, such as the Wire Act, the Travel Act, the Interstate Transportation of Wagering Paraphernalia Act, and the Illegal Gambling Business Act. [151]·
"Enterprise" is defined to include "any individual, partnership, corporation, association, or other legal entity, and union or group of individuals associated in fact although not a legal entity." [152]·
"Pattern of racketeering activity" "requires at least two acts of racketeering activity, one of which occurred after the effective date of this chapter and the last of which occurred within ten years (excluding any period of imprisonment) after the commission of a prior act of racketeering activity." [153]·
"Unlawful debt" generally means a debt that is incurred or contracted in a gambling activity or business in violation of federal, state or local law or is unenforceable, in whole or part, due to usury laws. [154] Congress clearly intended that evidence proving the collection of an unlawful debt would substitute for a showing that two or more predicate offenses were engaged in forming a pattern of racketeering activity. [155]
4 Signs for Further Caution by Satellite Radio Investors - Goldman
Great post and the Latin is a nice touch and well placed..... I agree the bank financing would be great news but am less optimistic that they will be able to secure financing that "clean" at this time, especially given their dependence on an ailing auto industry. At one time I had hoped that the OEMs might be a source of the bank / partner financing to clear the debt, but now that is less likely. We shall see.... have a good weekend yourself.
4 Signs for Further Caution by Satellite Radio Investors - Goldman
No problem and I agree on your assessment of the SP and where we've been. I am also getting concerned about my trying to be too greedy on the downside and as you say a couple of pennies won't matter if we are right. I am only concerned with two numbers on the call: Churn and Subscriber Growth. If churn is over 2.0 then Subscriber Growth could be close to net negative. Anything under 150K Subscriber adds, and even that will be seen as negative.... although not in a sustainable way. On a general note, we have to watch carefully the Auto Industry in general. A bankruptcy in any of the automakers now, as opposed to a year ago, would be devastating to subscriber growth. As 163888 has pointed out, normal churn of 1.7 % results in a subscriber loss of 3.89M on 19.1M that has to be overcome before there are any Net Adds. In the current market, without a government bail out of some kind, Chrysler and GM will be in Bankruptcy protection, not shut down, but faced with heavy regulation and an eventual shut down of at least Chrysler.
As I am betting Sirius will survive, I am also betting that the new and the present administration, will not let the Auto Industry fail. The failure would hit the heart of the middle class at the worst time possible. Lets see if the new President lives up to his promise to "Grow the Middle Class" and grow the economy from the Bottom Up. A failure to bail out the auto industry will be a disaster for Sirius as well. in that spirit of optimism I also took a position in GM right after their conference call when trading resumed. I guess you could say: No I am Not Diversified.
4 Signs for Further Caution by Satellite Radio Investors - Goldman
You wrote:
----You need to understand that this is a growing problem. It started as investors making recommendations and has expanded to obvious collusion and deception. The closer we look at Sirius the more evil we exposed.
My Response:
Present your evidence to the proper authorities and move on.... As you have said, you are not lawyers.... your shareholders, so what are you doing? Discovering Evil? You berate me for day trading this stock while I try to get my investment back. The only one who was a fool in my investment was ME.... Now I am working my arss off to get over 100K back that I lost.... let me repeat, I LOST not Mel no Michael and certainly NOT YOU. I Lost It. Get It...... If Day Trading is what it takes for this LONG to get his money back, then that is what I will do. Don't try and tell me how the lawsuit started. I have been involved in this stock since 2002-2003: Invested, LONG, and now, as you, I need to take the lessons learned and apply them to my next investment, which just happens to be, guess what? Sirius. So while your playing catch up on all the evil in the company, and about to lose the farm, don't criticize me for trying to keep the Banker from taking mine..... thank you. Now I AM done with this BS.