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    • Wed Nov 19th 00:59 AM
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      S&P 500 Fifty Day Historical Volatility May Have Just Peaked
      Bill,

      You might be on to something. I think we've run out of companies that could fail to push the VIX to new highs. This news is comforting. Buyers should slowly trickle in as the VIX returns to normal levels. Once the VIX is down to the 20s, where do you see the S&P? I would have to estimate 1100 as a ballpark. Great, quantitative article.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 7th 10:51 AM
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      Bank of America's Acquisitions: What Was Ken Lewis Thinking?
      Reggie, I sure hope a "lowly blogger" doesn't know the intricate inner workings of BAC, but I fear you may be right. I think BAC is completely depended on the Fed mortgage bailout and at the mercy of whatever price they offer. However, if they negotiate a decent price it will make many of your points moot as that are no longer a real estate company...that would now be the responsibility of the Fed and and private equity guys that get in on the deal. Best of luck, I love your posts!
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    • Sun Sep 14th 23:57 PM
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      What's the BofA / Merrill Synergy?
      I don't think a purchase of $29 is a ridiculous premium at all. All the analysts seem to believe that the fair value is at least 40. If BAC is right they will have a huge market share over its competators and it seems like it is going to become the new Citigroup.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 17th 21:54 PM
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      What’s Going on with Sirius XM Stock?
      Your information can not be correct. I'm long SIRI as well but there is no way that the combined company has positive equity at this point. It's book value has to still be negative (although it may be positive very soon). Please double check your number on assets, you may be adding zero.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 19th 00:21 AM
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      The 20 Highest of the High-Yield Dividend Aristocrats
      I think BAC has too much pride to cut their dividend. The credit spreads are really coming into a more normal range. If BAC can really make $4/share in the next 12 months, I think they will be able to afford their dividend with breathing room.
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 18th 23:52 PM
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      Homebuilder Values Overshot to the Downside?
      CHCI is not the symbol for California Costal Homes. Otherwise, I enjoyed the article.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 5th 13:22 PM
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      Dividend Analysis: Bank of America Corp.
      Norman, no offense, but it is because of people's fear that other's are able to get the stock at such a low price. Frankly, BAC and JPM or almost identical stocks and JPM is trading a quite a premium (based on projected EPS).
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    • Fri May 16th 11:13 AM
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      Don't believe Paulson: S&L 2.0, the Bank Failure Redux
      Reggie, your articles are by far the most informative (data-packed) that I've seen relating to housing / banking. I do have one question. You seem to imply that inflation is going to get out of control in the near future. Does this also apply to home prices? If so, we would have inflated our way out of the crisis; if not, then we really don't have terrible inflation if home prices continue to drop. I would like to know what your thoughts are on home prices, because inflation may be the reason folks are jumping into homebuilders (myself being one of them). Thanks, Reggie.

      -Jack
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    • Fri May 2nd 15:57 PM
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      Dangerous Optimism in Homebuilders
      How do you parse this data: Even with the sales rate more than 50% it's highs, inventory is still going down in terms of volume (granted each home is sold at a lower price). This could signal that home prices are done going down. This could mean that the writedowns are over and it is no longer to price in further writedowns.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 20:25 PM
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      Libor Jump Means More Pain for Financials
      2.7% to 2.9% is not that dramatic. Just a few months ago Libor was above 4%. I think banks can easily handle this rate. Homebuilders were really struggling when Libor was a lot higher, but this rate is near inflation. I don't see where the panic is. Plus, why would you single out big bank financials and not something more specific like mortgage companies?
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    • Thu Apr 3rd 18:21 PM
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      Closer Look At The ARMs Reset Problem
      This is a very thorough article. I enjoyed it, but I believe that the 2011 problem may be overstated. I believe home equity should be built up by this point (home values may be near all time highs 3 years from now). This would only require a market stabilizing and perhaps increases in value 2-4% from 2009-2011.

      Even if home prices remain at their current levels, the Fed understands the problem so well, that they will jump in again and be more accurate with their actions.
      View article »
    • Sat Mar 29th 01:00 AM
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      Upside to Falling Prices: Housing Affordabilty Index Reaches 4-Year High
      Finally an article showing that the housing market isn't trending like the Japanese asset bubble. If mortgage rates stay low, home prices are clearly more affordable. However, this is exactly how we got into this mess to begin with. As inventory is reduced, interest rates will be allowed to climb. Hopefully, this time around, speculators won't jump in and homebuilders will be reasonable with their new home development.
      View article »