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    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      That last comment was for VicDave that tried to correct me on spelling, and misspelled it himself. What a dufuss Aug 12 02:41 PM
    • Sirius XM 2009 Debt Is a Non Issue for Investors [view article]
      disappointed American, No just as I said, once it was apporved nobody cares, just like what happen with the DOJ. Aug 12 12:50 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      cos1000, I have noticed. I have also noticed that Sirius Roadkill's started to post Aug. 4th not to long after I lambasted VicDave with his own words. There is an easy way to prove that they are the same person or 2 different people both just post on Sirius Buzz. We can find out for sure that way. So if they dont like being linked then just log in to Sirius Buzz. I will never forget when Stackpointer changed to FrontMed then to hypocriticalass Tyler called it out everytime. The height of it all was when he posted with to different names just to have somebody else (really himself) agree with him. Aug 11 10:03 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      First of all Tyler has shown with the history of facts how bias Mark W. is (you see how Tyler did it with mark W., that is all I ask you people to do when you blame Tyler and say he lied, just repost the comments that got you in and show how it was a lie its that simple). That is just common sense that cannot be disputed. Second, as I said before the PPS went up and did not hit Mark W. target, and went back up. The thing that sent it down was Cramer tanking the stock just before the offering which took the offering from 1.8 to 1.5 That is what sent the PPS down now I will say it again are you saying Mark W. knew Cramer was going to do what he did just before the offering. Next He also put a price target of 1 dollar, the stock went up that just shows how the street listens to him these days. Then you say this; "GS is a pretty venerable franchise. I would not want to underestimate the level of information that they might be able to obtain that other investment houses cannot." If what you say is true, and I dought it for this reason; then he would be able to get at least the information we have. Once again common sense, which your comment makes none of.


      cos1000, VicDave realized that I was going to keep putting up his dumb a$$ comments that prove to everyone, he has no clue of what is going on in this company and that he lies, so he took off. By the way that was a good one about the Barrons article. Once again it showed he did not know what he was talking about.
      Aug 11 09:50 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      Sirius RoadKill, Are you kidding me, Lets see here people like homer385, others and myself can figure out cash on hand but Mark W. cant. That is as bad as the comments he made about what he needs to see SIRIXM do before he can upgrade them. Hey why did GS hire him if he cant do something as simple as that. Aug 11 08:02 PM
    • Satellite Radio: Betting on Used Cars [view article]
      VicDave, once again if you dont like looking like a fool then I suggest you stop posting. I am only using your own words to show this. You are the one that makes yourself look dumb.


      Second I see you from your other comment, you now think it is a compliment. You dont have to worry I will keep complimenting you. I will make sure you are complimented everytime.
      Aug 11 07:55 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      cos1000, Tyler gave his take on Mark Wienkes This was from the Forums:

      *Wienkes wants sustained cost constraint as shown by Sirius in 2Q08;

      Sirius and XM as separate companies have been demonstrating constraint in costs for quite some time now. This is nothing new to these equities. Cash burn has slowed, and costs of gaining subscribers has been improving. How much more "sustained" does Wienkes want?

      With a merged company, it is obvious that the business will scale in certain ares in a short time frame. Marketing is perhaps the most obvious, but other items will show savings as well. Sales teams that work with retailers. Shelf space, and advertising will all show savings right out of the box.

      Anyone can go through the last year of quarterly reports for both companies and witness evidence of cost cutting for themselves. I find it curious that Wienkes mentions this knowing full well that the companies have not only been cutting costs as stand alones, but will be even more efficient at it as a merged entity.

      *Weinkes wants more tangible visibility into the OEM ramp with steady integrated conversion rates and stable churn;

      Again, where is Wienkes coming from? Has he looked at the gross OEM numbers over the past few years? Has he visited dealer lots and seen all of the SDARS equipped cars? Tangible visibility into the OEM Ram Up? What do you call record installations DESPITE a slow 12% down in vehicle sales? How much more tangible can it get? Didn't Wienkes see the JD power survey on 2008 model year penetration at 55%, up from 39% in the 2007 model year? That is a 41% jump!!!! Isn't that tangible?

      Steady integrated conversion rates? Again, where is Wienkes coming from? XM's penetration rate was 53% up from 50% just a couple of quarters ago. XM has been between 50% and 55% for YEARS! Sirius announced 48% and guided higher. The company guided to 50% as a combined entity. Does Wienkes think that because the companies merged that things will change dramatically to the down side? Does he feel that having lower price point options for consumers will make the conversion rate go down? This baffles me.

      Stable Churn? I hate to say it again, but what is Wienkes thinking? Churn has been stable. Self pay churn has typically been between 1.6% and 1.8% for quite some time now. How much more stable does it get? In his note, Wienkes cited that fully loaded churn for Sirius was at 2.8%, up from 2.1% a year ago. WHERE HAS THIS GUY BEEN? anyone who follows the sector is well aware that the OEM channel in Sirius had a substantial ramp up of 1 year subscriptions that at some point had to turn into some churn. The jump was reflected in Q3 of last year and has been pretty stable ever since. Doesn't Wienkes comprehend that an initial ramp up would boost sub numbers when it happened, and then boost churn when the promotional period ended? Perhaps the lack of understanding of the take rate is simply translating to a lack of understanding on the churn rate.

      This whole point by Wienkes is shocking. It is almost as if he is a couple of years behind on the learning curve with respect to how the OEM channel works, and how churn is calculated.
      __________________
      Tyler Savery
      Satellite Standard Founder


      *Wienkes wants positive or stable and sustained ARPU momentum;

      I don't know where to start here. First of all, ARPU has been stable with both companies for quite some time. From time to time their are impacts to the line item, but typically they are one time events.

      What is baffling is that the ARPU model will shift with a merged company. Not because they merged, but because there are now more pricing options. What is better, 70 subscribers paying $8 or 50 subscribers paying $10? Did Wienkes even stop to think that the ARPU line stands for average revenue per user, and that having a lower ARPU combined with deeper consumer demand can be better than a higher ARPU with less demand?

      How long does Wienkes need to determine stability? One quarter, or twenty? Given that he is looking for stability in churn when it has been stable for YEARS makes me wonder if Wienkes will ever see stability!

      *Wienkes wants improving retail sales;

      We all do. However, most people noticed a shift to OEM some time ago. Retail sales were important in the beginning because satellite radios were not available in cars. Most people understood this. If your car comes with satellite radio, do you really need to install a retail radio? Isn't the point to get the subscriber whether from the OEM channel or the retail channel?

      Retail sales have stabilized, and have actually been ABOVE what most analysts were expecting. By the way, why is it that Wienkes does not put his targets out there for all of these metrics? He says he wants "something", but because no one knows what his "something" is, it may well be that he will never be satisfied.

      Retail is going to be a Q4 event in SDARS going forward....at least for a while. Everyone knows this, so why is this metric important to Wienkes as a standard for becoming positive?
      __________________
      Tyler Savery
      Satellite Standard Founder

      *Wienkes wants a significantly lower enterprise valuation;

      Agreed. It will come in time when profits get here. As the business scales, so will the EV.


      *Weinkes wants reduced risk of dilution related to cash flow and refinancing needs through 2009;

      I do not see a need for dilution at this point. The company is demonstrating cost control, and revenue is GETTING TO THE BOTTOM LINE. The company is still seeing TOP LINE GROWTH, and now we are beginning to see both TOP AND BOTTOM LINE growth. This is a positive trend.

      I do not see financing as a major issue going forward. The markets will improve, and the company will be demonstrating better cash flows by the time they need to address the issue.
      __________________
      Tyler Savery
      Satellite Standard Founder


      *Wienkes wants more conservative consensus financial expectations for 2008-2010.

      Excuse me? You want all of your peers to adjust down to you, and then you will become more bullish? Come on now! Consensus gives the average of the opinions. That is why it is called consensus. This statement by Wienkes seems to carry an arrogance to it. Again, where is Wienkes desired goal? He does not offer it. We may know his opinion, but how much is he looking for others to cut? 10%? 30%? He is once again putting up a hoop for everyone to jump through, but also has the ability to move that hoop.

      *Wienkes wants clarity on the timing and magnitude of proposed merger synergies

      We all want clarity. We all know there will be synergies. We all would love to see some of the steps to realize $400 million in the first year. We also all know that when Mel Karmazin sets a goal in public, he gets there. As an analyst, you do not need Mel to hold your pencil for you. Some savings are quite obvious, others less so.

      We are all frustrated with the fact that knowing exactly how things are going to happen is not going to be an option, but we will all also be happy when the company gets there.
      __________________
      Tyler Savery
      Satellite Standard Founder

      Conclusion:

      People are being critical of Mel Karmazin for not giving up detail and specific timetables. Perhaps we can all be critical of Wienkes for the same thing.

      Wienkes has made several GENERAL statements without letting us know what his desires are. Does this give Wienkes the ability to create a moving target? YES IT DOES.

      The man is negative on SDARS, and says that is is possible for him to be positive, but gives no REAL indication of what exactly it is that will satisfy him. While other analysts point out their assumptions in various metrics, I find that information lacking in Wienkes keys to turning positive.

      In the end, it is the bottom line that matters. Not Wienkes bottom line, but the bottom line of the company
      __________________
      Tyler Savery
      Satellite Standard Founder
      Aug 11 07:00 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      cos1000, You should reread the other comments about the people that are going to have to go up against Mel. I am telling you people are worried about having to compete against Mel. You can tell they dont like it. They dont like having to go up against him at all. Aug 11 06:49 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      cos1000, here is a New York Post article you might
      like.www.nypost.com/seven/0...

      Aug 11 06:17 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      cos1000, I know that just proves once again VicDave has no clue about what he is talking about. Homer, Newman and I were all talking about this (at Sirius Buzz) and how bad most news reports misrepresented the offering. We were all talking about how we are not analyst and cought it before they started to correct it. Unfortunately the damage was already done. Look you still have people here saying it. Aug 11 05:55 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      cos1000, They just dont get it, do they. How many times have I or you gone into this, If I can find VicDaves ridiculous comments in short order to prove how little he knows and that he constantly lies. Then they can go back through ours, I am sick of trying to save them their money. As to the Cramer clip I saw that to, I thought it was funny. Is that not what we have been telling people here that the metrics are showing the company to be doing very well and if the price is down it is not because of the metrics. Like I said bet against Mel and you will lose. I also cant believe he almost called Mark W. a criminal. That once again shows me, Mel is well aware of the metrics and it not being reflected correctly by Mark W. Aug 11 05:46 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      Boy I guess, SIRIXM is stuck with the financing they got. They cant refinance can they, DHAAAAAAAA, of course they can. Aug 11 04:59 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      Sirius Roadkill, Here once again are the facts of the financing. I will not find them again and repost them again. It has been gone over already. I am sick of trying to tell you losers to stay in a stock that will go up big if you stick it out. I did my good deed for several years in the last few months trying to tell you morons you are going to regret selling your stock in this company. If you cant read the facts for yourself that is your problem. Hell I even tried to dumb them down for you losers. You still dont get it that is your problem dont go crying in the next year or 2 that you should have stayed in. By the way VicDave will not be here, for you to blame him ether. He will be gone the next time the stock gets up to 2.5. I know because that loser did it before.



      XM had about $1.5 billion in puttable debt — which means, if XM changes control, the debt holder could force the company to buy back the debt. So XM had to refinance almost all of their debt…

      Incedentally, Karmazin had nothing to do with the refinancing, as the companies had to sign confidentiality agreements to keep each others “business” and “finances” away from each other until after the merger is consumated. So while Mel was probably aware of what XM was doing — he was not the facilitator, as that would be against the law.

      First, XM offered an increase in the interest coupon on their $400 million in 1.75% convertible notes that mature in December 2009 — up to 10%. Those holders agreed, so XM changed the indenture on these notes.

      —–

      Second, XM offered to repurchase $400 million of their $600 million in 9.75% Senior Notes with cash… and issue a “new” exchange note for the final $200 million, which would have an identical coupon of 9.75%.

      To come up with the $400 million in cash, XM did a new debt offering. There was one stipulation — and that was, if this new note offering exceeded the $400 million, then every dollar higher had to be used to repurchase the remaining 9.75% notes. We since learned that this debt offering went really well — and was “oversold” all the way up to $700 million. So XM had to use $600 million of it to buy back all of the $600 million in 9.75% Senior Notes. The problem here was that the coupon on these was run up to 13%… ouch. But these are tough times… so instead of $600 million at 9.75%, they now have $700 million at 13%.

      There was no interest rate at 15% or 16%. That was a misunderstanding by many who mistook the discussion of the Yield to Mature, as the interest rate. The YTM will almost always be higher than the interest rate. In fact, the new Senior notes above have a coupon of 13% and a YTM of 16%.

      —–

      Third, XM put together their final piece of refinancing — by issuing $550 million worth of new exchangeable notes (aka, convertible notes). Problem here, is that most buyers of convertible notes are Hedge Funds — who short the common stock agains the purchase of the convertible debt, in an arbitrage investment play… but Sirius is on the REG SHO list and has no shares available to short. So XM got Sirius involved, to “lend out” up to $440 million worth of their shares to the Hedge Funds, so that they can short the common against their Debt purchase. Without Sirius lending out these shares, the interest in buying this debt would drop greatly — and cause XM to lower the conversion price and increase the interest rate offer on them.

      So today we learn that they priced the conversion price of the convertible debt at $1.875/share; and priced the offering price of the loaned out shares to be sold at $1.50. This combination allowed XM to get an interest rate of 7% on this new $550 million in debt.

      This $550 million will be combined with the remaining $100 million from the other debt placement — and used to buy back the $200 million in Floating Rate debt; and $310 million that is owed on the Transponders of XM-4, which were sold last year in the leaseback agreement.

      This leaves XM with $140 million remaining — which I believe XM is using to replenish the $120 million in cash that XM used to deposit in their MLB escrow account.

      All money raised in these two offerings has now been used to refinance/buy back older debt.


      As to the second question:
      "Then also, perhaps explain to all the brethren the technical aspects of the arbitrage play on the converts."

      I know cos1000 already explained it. So I will not waste anymore time trying to find it, or retype it, so go look it up yourself or you could just take a look at the Mad Money clip with Mel it gets into it.




      Aug 11 04:55 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      Sirius Roadkill, You once again show you are clueless, first of all I know both Tyler and I made more off SIRI and XMSR in 2005 then you made in the last 3 years. I dont know about Tyler, but I have not worked for anyone except the US Marines for a short time. I also dont intend on going back into the work force again. I'll leave that kind of thing for yourself to do. I have yet to buy high and sell low. So I dont over react like you and sell for less then I bought for, I leave that for lossers such as yourself. I am the vampire that sucks up the shares you sold on the cheap and sells them for a profit. Aug 11 03:32 PM
    • Sirius XM Radio Analyst Roundup [view article]
      cos1000, I loved it, Mel has said once again what he has always said. They are going to be set by the end of next year. Betting against Mel is a losing bet. Aug 11 02:27 PM
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