Dennis Trigubetz
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Latest Comments8 Comments
Skechers: Ignoring Obvious Value
1) A 0.7% sales decline 2qtr 08 v. 07 is hardly a big sales negative, especially when many U S retailers are reporting cahallenged 2d qtr results; thus, CROX is not exactly a bad performer in a stellar field.
2) Yes there are a number of INFERIOR Crocs knockoffs; however, despite CROX's inability to enforce their patents, there is another intellectual partner who WILL enforce their patent gor Croslite, DuPont. I believe CROX has an exclusive footwear agreement for Croslite with DuPont.
3) Croslite is what makes Crocs so comfortable. The loyal core of Crocs users, including myself will gravitate to their new styles, as long as Croslite is imbedded in the sole.
4) I am 62 years old and judging by your picture you are probably a contemporary. I cannot understand your referring to Crocs as a fad a their market ranges from ages 5 to 100. As you know, older consumers are more loyal to a brand and less fickle than the 8-18 crowd. Do you really think that a 65-year old woman will abandon her Crocs in favoe of stilleto high heels?
5) Pleasd do two things: A) visit crocsrx.com for a glimpse of a very promising market; B) visit a local store that carries Crocs and try them on-you will be pleasantly surprised by their comfort.
6) Bear is mind that footwear, unless one plans to go barefoot, is not a discretionary item. Wearing Crocs does reduce the potential for expensive foot doctor bills.
7) The cheapness of CROX makes it an ideal target for the likes of Adidas. Adidas or Nike or Brown Shoe can take out hundreds of millions in CROX overhead.
8/18/08 WSJ says it best:
Dollar Revival Reaps Roses and Thorns
Stocks Likely to Gain on Mergers, Profits;
Caution for Commodities and Exporters
By JEFF D. OPDYKE and CRAIG KARMIN
August 18, 2008
Worries that the dollar could continue strengthening have already boosted cross-border M&A activity. U.S.-based targets are still cheap -- thanks to the nearly seven-year bear market in the dollar -- but are suddenly getting more expensive to foreign acquirers. That could be "a strong enough factor to hasten a decision," says Boon Sim, head of mergers and acquisitions at Credit Suisse.
The dollar's turnaround played a role in expediting some recent trans-Atlantic deals, including a bid by Switzerland's Roche Holding AG to buy the shares in Genentech Inc. it doesn't already own, and Belgian brewer InBev NV's takeover of Anheuser Busch Cos., according to people familiar with the transactions.
Skechers: Ignoring Obvious Value
"With explosive growth in emerging markets and more companies with worldwide operations, a corporation's official "headquarters&quo... will become less relevant, says Jeremy Siegel, a professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. "People think they're diversifying by investing in a country, and it leads to inadequate diversification," he says, "because the country of origin or incorporation is not the primary influence on the stock price."
"More important for individual investors will be understanding where a company produces and sells its products, since an outfit based in France but selling products in Egypt doesn't truly represent the French economy. Siegel foresees the birth of the "international corporation"—a business globally diversified in where it produces and sells goods and not identified by its specific country. "
Thank you, Professor Siegel. Forget Croc's U S problems-focus on international growth.
finance.yahoo.com/reti...
Skechers: Ignoring Obvious Value
The aging of the U S & world population is just a fad? Individuals being able to deduct the purchase of diabetic Crocs shoes from their health savings accounts and/or tax returns(with a doctor's note as to medical necessity fo conditions other than diabetes) is just a fad?
The great dancer Fred Astaire tried skateboarding in his seventies, so I guess all seniors will desert Crocs and embrace wheelies.
Earnings Preview: Crocs
A very stylish lady was wearing them yesterday at the Las Vegas Athletic Club.
Crocs has a loyal following like wearers of SAS shoes.
Adidas, Nike, Brown Shoe, Kenneth Cole and private equity firms are likely buyers of the company.
Mechel: Huge Upside - But Not for the Faint of Heart
HPC Vaccine Inspires Yellow Health Journalism
Unfortunately good science does not drive much of the U S media.
Are High-Profile CEOs Effective?
Jack Welch was a highly competent but overrated CEO. His great GE success occurred during a very benign business climate.
All CEOs and upper management look good during fat times. I don't believe Jack would have done any better than Immelt after 9/11.
A contrarian book about Welch is AT ANY COST, by Thomas F O'Boyle.
Analysts React to Pfizer 'Analyst Day'
1) That the material misstatements contained in Encysive's 3/4/08 filing invalidates the opinion that Pfizer's bid represented the best and superior offer in the interests of the shareholders.
2) That the material misstatements invalidate the definitive tender offer and definitive sales agreement between Pfizer and Encysive.
3) That Bidders "B" and "C" must be informed of the defect and be invited to re-bid, along with Pfizer, along with any additional unsolicited bidders.
4) That the Encysive board of directors and Morgan Stanley issue a press release to that affect and rescind their previous fairness opinion and best offer statements.
I Will Complain to SEC That Encysive's SC 14D9 Contains a Material Misleading Statement
SC 14D 9, March 4,2008, page 10, last sentence, third paragraph from the bottom, concerning the $130 million convertible note maturing in 2012:
"...all bid proposals for the purchase of Thelin rights outside of the United States, would likely trigger the convertible note holders' rights to require Encysive or its successor to repurchase the notes at par value following such transactions."
The above assertion is overreaching and contradicts language found in the definitive filing statement for the $130 million convertible note, which Encysive filed with the SEC, Form s-3/A, June 15, 2005, page 34, paragraph five from the top:
"The definition of change of control includes a phrase relating to the conveyance, transfer, lease or other disposition of 'all or substantially all' under applicable law. There is no precise established definition of the phrase 'substantially all' under applicable law. Accordingly, the ability of a holder of Notes to require us to repurchase such Notes as a result of conveyance, transfer, lease, or other disposition of less than all of Encysive's assets may be uncertain."
Writer's note: page 31, above SEC filing, fifth bullet point is the full phrase referred to above:
"A sale or conveyance to another corporation of all or substantially all of Encysive's property and assets."
Writer's Opinion: Encysive could argue to the bond trustee the following mitigationg points:
1) Per previous Encysive SEC filings the company does not own or have title to any real property.
2) Asset sale proceeds go back into the company's treasury and are appropriately controlled and reported in SEC and IRS filings.
3) If Encysive sold rights to the PAH drug Thelin, geographically located primarily in the European Union, Russia, Turkey and Brazil, the total population of those countries aggregates only about 1 billion.
4) The total population of Thelin rights in areas retained by Encysive in their entirety and not ceded to any corporation, person or entity, is equal to approximately 5 billion people.
5) Encysive continues to own exclusive and unimpaired rights to TBC3711, a later generation PAH drug compared to the drug Thelin. Encysive has invested a considerable amount of money into the development of TBC3711 and considers it an important, though hard to value company asset.
IF ENCYSIVE FAILED TO PREVAIL IN A COURT OF LAW THE FOLLOWING ARE ONLY A FEW OF THE MITIGATING REMEDIES THAT COULD BE PROPOSED TO THE BOND TRUSTEE AND THE COURT:
A) Segregate funds in an interest bearing controlled account either equal to or as a percentage of the above mentioned $130 million, subject to company and trustee access rules.
B) Offer to partially reduce the debt by a lottery open to all bondholders, offering an enhancement on par value in an indenture amendment negotiated with the bond trustee.
C) Convert the bonds into unsecured plain vanilla bonds at a higher interst rate.
D) Lowering the Encysive share price required for bondholder conversion into company common stock.