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    • Fri May 9th 10:39 AM
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      Expecting Weakness in Nvidia on Cautious Goldman Note
      How about those problems? Stock is up 5% today on Record 1st quarter earnings. Don't be surprised it NVDA gets bought by Intel before this year is over. Well worth the short for those idiots betting against a company, with no Debt, big buy back, huge cash reserves, and investing in its own manufacturing in order to improve future margins.
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    • Thu May 8th 16:08 PM
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      Why You Should Short Companies Doing Share Buybacks
      How is a buyback dilutive? If you get a larger percentage of the company with your shares, when the company is buying stock from others.
      Would you rather pay the dividend tax from excess cash flow if the company's shares are undervalued, and not doing a buyback?
      You're an idiot too.
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    • Mon May 5th 14:29 PM
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      Is Bank of America Rethinking Countrywide's Value?
      BofA can always do the MSFT Yahoo, walk away.
      And like JPM, buy CFC for pennies, since no one will be willing to buy it for more. And let Helicopter Ben finance the transaction for free to take on the systematic risk.
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    • Mon May 5th 08:27 AM
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      Dangerous Optimism in Homebuilders
      Homebuilders are way too overpriced and they will keep loosing money for at least 6-18 months. Their Book values, will continue to decrease, and unlike Banks, their cash flow from operations is decreasing because of lower revenues (less sales). Banks in the other hand, have steady cash flow, and with lower rates, are earning a higher interest margin. Once the write downs are finished the banks will be swimming into a pond of cash. The correct move here is to short the Homebuilders and to go long on large strong banks.
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    • Wed Apr 30th 08:56 AM
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      Still Too Early For Banks
      Banks are way to cheap right now, but you can't owe them, you can only rent them. They aren't going broke, and not all are the same, but the resets peak in June and July, they are worth the risk. Totally Agree with Papa Bear Doug Kass comments (The value of the Franchises are intact and the earnings power is there), Buy the DIPS sell the RIPS. You must owe some of these, because when housing inventory starts to decline they will be up 20-40% from where they are now and you will be late to the party.
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    • Mon Apr 28th 15:21 PM
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      Under The Radar News - Monday
      at 12 Billion Pounds, RBS is issuing stock at Book Value, unlike U.S. smaller regionals that issued stock way below their book values like WM and NCC. When this clears, it does not mean WM, NCC, and anyone selling below Book will be safe for management, they will actually easier takovers. If you look at NCC, they are issuing Stock and convertibles at $5, when you take into account all new shares, the overall shares will have a Book Value of $10, and stock is selling for less than 7. Any foreigner like HBC, BCS, or STD can offer $12-$15 and take it for themselves. Current shareholders would be loved that, after the horrible take under offered by current management, and an incompetent board of directors.
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    • Fri Apr 25th 10:53 AM
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      Soaring Tenke Costs Affect Lundin Mining and Freeport-McMoRan
      I don't see Lundin operating as an independent company before this year is over. It is selling well below the 9.08 Book value at the end of 2007. With Cooper prices soring, and with Lundin having less than 100 million in Debt, and it will be takeover if it meets the estimates for Q1.
      If FCX is going to have to pay for Lundin's part of the mine expansion, it would be cheap for FCX to takeover Lundin at a price of 1.5 to 2.0 times book and assume all of the profits of the mine. Lundin is a small company with great growth potential, selling below NAV because the previous CEO was cooking the books on recent mergers. The new CEO is almost done cleaning the mess, and if Lundin meets earnings in Q1 it will be on its way to earn 90 cents for 2008 which will put the company at an 8 P/E well below the industry average.
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    • Wed Apr 23rd 18:30 PM
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      POT: Great Moments in Live Financial TV
      Hey Paul nice article, please contribute something helpful to investment, and stop being a POTHEAD.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 22nd 17:51 PM
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      The Worst Is Behind Us (unless massive bank failure is considered a bad thing)
      Banks are BUY BUY BUY BUY at these levels.
      Shorting these things at these levels is asking for a serious BOOT STUMP. And the worst is truly over. The more capital they raise these low levels the easier takeover for the Giants (JPM,BAC,HBC) when the cloud clears.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 22nd 09:00 AM
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      Is Netflix a Short Term Sell or a Long Term Buy?
      Netflix is a Long-term DOG from now on.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 21st 12:24 PM
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      The U.S. Dollar and the Limits of Irresponsibility
      There's no Reason why the U.S. should have so much Debt in its Books.
      Over $6 Trillion in Debt, is irresponsible for the richest Nation in the World. It should pay all of its debt and them become a Creditor Nation.
      Then see what happens to the Greenback. The Bernanke move to accept all kinds of Leveraged assets with a haircut in exchange for Treasuries in the Discount Window is going to be remembered as one of the best moves in the FED's history. Not only is the Fed giving Treasuries at the lowest yield ever in history, but is also letting the Banks reliquify their Balance sheets with liabilities (Treasuries that are going to worth less, because there's a Bubble in these prices, and yields will go up), while their assets get repriced higher.
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    • Mon Apr 21st 12:02 PM
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      Why Private Equity Shops Are Recapitalizing Banks
      Yes they have enough capital Voice of Reason. They aren't growing assets, so they don't need extra capital. They can survive fine with what they have because they are not going to take a charge off of more than 2.5% on all earning assets, and they have already put 2.23% of Loans on Reserves. Now giving it away to P/E is joke, if they want in they should pay accordingly to what the risk is. Paying for convertible stock convertible at $5, is no RISK at all, Even a Monkey would take that.
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    • Mon Apr 21st 11:08 AM
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      Why Private Equity Shops Are Recapitalizing Banks
      Banks should be re-capitalized at the right price. There's no market panic, and no guts from Private Equity for being early. This is just simple stupidity by the part of Management in these large financial institutions, and irresponsible behavior, so that they can maintain their Jobs. The Deal with WM, was horrible, and its all the fault of management for relying in just Mortgages. What we're seeing this morning from NCC is a total Disgrace, Current shareholders are better being served through liquidation of the company, or a takeover by JPM rather than accept this offer. What a joke, is becoming the issue of raising capital. Management of NCC and its advisor Goldman Sachs should be ashame. At the close of Q1, NCC had $13.2 Billion in Equity, and $20.61 of Book Value, . The Allowance for Loan Losses is over 2.23% of All outstanding Loans at $2.6 Billion, these are loans written off the Books, that are still earning money. Loans past due 90 even decreased by 100 Million at end of Q1 from Q4 to $1.8 billion, from $1.9 Billion, which is 1.6% of all Loans, reflecting that the worst credit conditions have peaked. With 8.5% of Capital over total assets. and 6.65% Tier 1 capital, NCC has more than enough capital to be above the "the well-capitalized" threshold of 6%, and with the worst 2 quarters in the the Bank's history, there are no signs, that it will fall below 6%. With 13.2 Billion equity, and a good Loan Loss allowance that has taken care for possible deteriorating conditions. Why does it need to raise $7 Billion at $5 dollars (.25 of existing Book Value), $6.3 Billion of those on Preferred Stock convertible at $5 (well below market price) at what interest? There's no risk here for Private equity, and these shows management's irresponsability and stupidity. All Directors and Managers of NCC should be fired, and NCC should be allowed to be taken over by anyone in an open auction, instead of these joke from Corsair Capital.
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    • Fri Apr 18th 16:43 PM
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      Citigroup's Flush
      After it deeps a couple of points of course.
      Never buy Stocks that are up 10% in a Day.-Jim Cramer
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    • Fri Apr 18th 16:38 PM
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      The Global Agricultural Boom: No Bubbles Here
      Keep raising fertilizer and food crops 200% and 300% and see who's going to pay for it. People have to eat, but there's $3 Billion poor people who can't afford a 200% or 300% hike in food prices, so they are most likely to starve, and prices will come down. Despite what they say about growth in India and China, income is not growing by 100%, even if it grows by 30-50% it does not justify a 100% Increase of 200% to 300% in Food Prices, Demand will fall, and Prices also. Despite Less land being harvested, yields are higher, and there's no shortage of food out to justify these outrageous increases. Gasoline Demand is already down 7% in the U.S. and the U.S. uses 25% of the world's output, Prices will crack soon, and will go back to more normal levels. This has been a parabolic move, and when the Bubble in Commodities pops, more money will be lost than in the U.S. housing crisis. Futures in commodities were made for hedging and ETF's are taking crops of the market, and not for physical delivery, those Derivatives, are creating artificial demand that no one can support, Margin rates should be raised in order to avoid a CDO meltdown in Commodities.
      Short Oil Double Down DUG.
      Short Potash too. See how long those increase in prices keep holding when the crop prices fall like crazy.
      View article »