Clear Channel Communications Inc. (CCU)

All Comments on CCU

  • commenter
    chris sutton
    Aug 17 10:48 PM
    My Website
    Wednesday's Options Report: Yahoo, XLF, DELL, RMBS, ETFC, CCU, HWAY, BID [view article]
    ??????????????????????... Reply
  • commenter
    zacjones
    Aug 08 02:26 PM
    KSW, ePlus Look Like Bargains [view article]
    I agree with you on KSW with so much in cash and such a solid backlog and high ROIC and now bidding on a number of new projects this is a very attractive investment. Reply
  • commenter
    Jeff - CoC
    Aug 08 09:24 AM
    My Website
    KSW, ePlus Look Like Bargains [view article]
    Paul,

    I was thinking about that yesteday as well, the risk/reward ratio. Indeed if the stock is worth maybe $3.15 in the worst case, the risk reward ratio is still over 3 based on what I really think it's worth. I'm not trying to know the company better than management, I believe it's a fallacy that you can really do so, I want to know everything I can from an outside perspective.

    Cash is cash until they starting burning it, which is another risk in an "earnings collapse" scenario. When looking at R/R, the entire downside case must be considered. So if I say to myself "ok, what else?" in the case of an earnings collapse that might be cash burn. See TRID, which I mentioned above, for this scenario.

    While these are not "probable" scenarios, they cannot be glossed over, not least of all for a small company without recurring revenues or a wide moat.

    Your analysis, for the most part, is right on though. The investment is no doubt a smart one at these prices.

    -Jeff     Reply
  • commenter
    palu77
    Aug 07 01:20 PM
    KSW, ePlus Look Like Bargains [view article]
    Jeff,

    Agreed you must consider all risks when developing a margin of safety and you are right to point out that they don't have a recurring revenue model. Still when developing an investment thesis it is important to consider risk vs. reward and using your assumption of a cash floor at $3.35 puts the risk at $1.65 per share. Where the reward with continue growth is ~$10/share, upside of $5. That is a sufficent risk to reward ratio for me as an investor.

    So with that said, I don't care to pour into the day to day activities and know them intimately or else I would apply to work at the company. I put some level of trust into a managment team that has performed admirably to date and combine that info with a healthy balance sheet and develop my buy decision. Now it is in Mgmt's hands and all I can do is hope that my anaylsis is on target and modify as new information is revealed.

    If I am wrong I sell when I realize I am wrong. If I am right I add to my postition when the time is right and wait to sell. I have owned KSW at $6/shr and my ananlysis still indicates that I am making a smart investment so I am adding to my position at this level.

    Good luck to you in your investment decision.

    Paul     Reply
  • commenter
    Jeff - CoC
    Aug 07 09:30 AM
    My Website
    KSW, ePlus Look Like Bargains [view article]
    Dave,

    I figured as much, that's why I mentioned my uncertainty. Thanks for the comment, I appreciate it.



    Paul,

    Good assessment, and I tend to agree. I am already very impressed based on the numbers and reading I've done so far. I just want to be sure.

    I'm not worried about a stoppage of growth, however. What I'm worried about is an earnings collapse. I understand that the next year and a half, maybe two are pretty much covered by the current backlog of projects. I'm also trying to understand what could possibly happen to that backlog. As I said above, if the earnings are stable, not even growing, the margin of safety is a monster. If the earnings are subject to a collapse (very small company, not a recurring revenue business model i.e. they must always be receving new projects)), the margin of saftey is current cash plus future cash on already backlogged items that will be completed in the next few years. If we assume they do generate 2.2mm in cash this year, that leaves them with $20.2mm, or ~$3.35/ share.

    My point is, downside risk is there in that if they lose new revenues, prices keep rising without the ability to pass them through, or there is a blip in their operations, there won't be much to add to existing cash for a full valuation.

    While I'm not saying this is likely, all risks must be considered to find a true margin of safety.

    Any other comments or thoughts I would appreciate.


    Reply
  • commenter
    palu77
    Aug 07 07:47 AM
    KSW, ePlus Look Like Bargains [view article]
    Jeff,

    Couple of comments of KSW. Your evaluation is right on as far as I can tell. However, I disagree with you about margin of safety. They have $18MM in cash and $140MM in backlog. If that isn't margin of safety I don't know what is. Not to meantion that the backlog is not with one project.

    1) I think is safe to say that the work resonably expected to be complete by the end of the year ($50MM) is safe. That will bring in an additional $2.2MM in earns this year or ($0.35/share).
    2) The company has a floor of ~$2.90 based on the $18MM is cash on hand. Furthermore a majority of the $2.2MM in potential earnings for the rest of the year should go directly into the current cash holdings.

    As for dividend, I wouldn't expect a quarterly dividend from KSW. They stated in their 10k that the companies dividend policy is set annually based on annual performance.

    Overall if you look at is from a risk versus reward stand point. Your max risk is $2.13/share if KSW trades at cash. But even if KSW stops growing it will not trade at cash so lets say it trades at 3x's EPS(ttm) plus cash or $4.3/share or $0.70/share downside.

    Your potential reward is $0.7*15 = $10.5 or $5.50/share upside, assuming a 15x's P/E on 2008 expected earnings.

    That translates into a 7.8:1 Reward to Risk ratio. Not bad.

    Good Luck

    Paul
    Reply
  • commenter
    DaveinHacken
    sack
    Aug 06 08:36 PM
    My Website
    KSW, ePlus Look Like Bargains [view article]
    Jeff,

    That wasn't a quarterly dividend, it was an annual one. There are no plans, as far as I know, for KSW to initiate a regular quarterly dividend.     Reply
  • commenter
    shure46
    Jul 17 11:12 PM
    Radio Is Doomed - Tear Down the Broadcast Towers [view article]
    how does adelstein expect siri to hold pricing for 6 years in this era of inflation ??????? Reply
  • commenter
    ITS A
    SIRIUS WORLD
    Jul 17 10:35 PM
    Radio Is Doomed - Tear Down the Broadcast Towers [view article]
    Sorry, I misread your post!! HE HE! Embarrassed!! Reply
  • commenter
    ITS A
    SIRIUS WORLD
    Jul 17 10:32 PM
    Radio Is Doomed - Tear Down the Broadcast Towers [view article]
    Humm......I don't think the world will collapse if a terrorist attack happens and it can't be broadcast via the satellite emergence broadcast system. You must be against the merger!!! Reply
  • commenter
    cos1000
    Jul 17 08:16 PM
    Radio Is Doomed - Tear Down the Broadcast Towers [view article]
    Just to add a little more. Adelstein is quoting Marky's, Democratic Rep. from MA, 6 year freeze on pricing and 25 % Spectrum set aside. Along with a few other details not yet revealed, in addition to what is already in circulation. Reply
  • commenter
    cos1000
    Jul 17 07:55 PM
    Radio Is Doomed - Tear Down the Broadcast Towers [view article]
    oregonduck.....a little brief on the details, and as we all know the devil is definitely in the details Adelstein is spouting out for the "Yes" vote. Might as well take my first born too! Granted it sets a limit for the deal to get done and puts tremendous pressure on Tate to do the right thing in aligning herself with her Republican Members, but short of that, Adelstein's concessions should be a deal breaker for me as an investor. Reply
  • commenter
    oregonduck
    Jul 17 07:08 PM
    Radio Is Doomed - Tear Down the Broadcast Towers [view article]
    Adelstein says yes--we are over the hump!!! Reply
  • commenter
    Superlegs6
    Jul 17 05:10 PM
    Radio Is Doomed - Tear Down the Broadcast Towers [view article]
    How does an alternative source make it automatically a monopoly?? Don't think AM radio in comparison to FM or SSB or Long Wave is a "legal" monoply by definition! Or TV or cable versus radio! Or the print press versus radio versus TV versus cable versus the Internet! Collectively, they are just alternative means of spreading the word = communications!!

    But at one time in our history we had pocket sized radios that only received FM radio or only received AM radio!! And nobody was raising this kind of interference!! Or maybe they were, but without the Internet, nobody knew, therefore nobody cared!!!

    Just goes to show how illogical bureaucrats are! And you can translate the word "illogical" into stupid! Because after all this BS, it really appears that satellite radio is as doomed as any other common broadcast medium is when compared to the Internet!!

    Ever herad the terms "technological immigrants" and "technological natives"?? Well that describes folks born before and after 1980! Just wish the "natives" would get a little more restless and by the power of their votes set the "immigrants" in FCC free!

    Are contact lenses a legal monoply when compared to conventional eyeglasses? And if so, what the hell is laser surgery??

    Then, please tell me what value the FCC adds for the tax dollars they suck down! We would all do well to take their budget and contribute it to the Defense Department!

    This whole tragedy reminds me of Shakespeare's play "Much to do about nothing"!!!

    Have a nice day!     Reply
  • commenter
    RReagan
    Jul 17 01:13 PM
    Radio Is Doomed - Tear Down the Broadcast Towers [view article]
    Can we get on with this already? Sirius should get out of this insane merger and go it alone now! They don't need XM's debt, they don't need the FCC, they need to hook up with the IPOD and every other devise out there in technology land, and they don't need to share the spectrum or anything else they own, and it would be nice to see Sirius and XM survive and wipe out regular radio. This way, the corrupt polititions get nothing. It would be a victory for Sirius and hopefully for XM to in the long run. As for the stock prices, they were higher years ago before the merger was announced, and with some help from other technologies, they will get back to those higher levels again. Reply

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