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By Jim Wiandt
Last week was breathtaking. NEVER—not even in 1929—has the Dow seen such a big decline by points OR percentage.
Wow. Wow. Really, what else is there to say? There was pure panic in the air on Friday morning. I've never felt anything like it and the market has never SEEN anything like it. The proof is in the numbers. Let's have a look (thanks again Dow Jones team—great job on this):
Dow Jones Industrial Average
As Of October 10, 2008
- The DJIA, down 128.00 points, or -1.49%, to close at 8451.19.
- Today, it fell another 128.00 points, or 1.5% (the best day of the week).
- Down for the eighth straight trading day.
- Longest losing streak since the eight-day drop ended September 21, 2001.
- First 1000+ point high/low swing in the DJIA's history.
- Intraday, it rose as high as 8901.28 (up 322.09 points, or 3.8) and fell as low as 7882.51 (down 696.68 points, or 8.1%)
- It has dropped 5713.34 points, or -40.34%, from its record close of 14164.53, hit on October 9, 2007.
- It has dropped 35.28% from its 2008 close high of 13058.20, hit on May 2.
- Month-to-date, the DJIA is down -22.11%. In September, it closed down 6.00%.
- Year-to-date, it is down -36.29%.
Week In Review
- DJIA, down 1874.19 points this week, or 18%
- Fell for the fourth straight week and 14 of the last 17.
- Down 31% over the last 17 weeks.
- Biggest weekly point AND percentage decline in the DJIA's 112-year history. Only 2 other weeks in the post-World War II era make the top 10 biggest weekly percentage decline list. Note: until May 1952, the NYSE traded on Saturdays, so a typical trading week was six days instead of five. (Included is a list of the TOP-10 biggest weekly drops in the DOW.
- The last largest weekly percentage drop occurred on the week ended July 22, 1933, when it fell 17%.
- Lowest close since April 25, 2003.
***********
Top 10 Weekly DJIA Percentage Declines | |||
Pd. Ending | Close | Wkly Point Chg | Wkly % Chg |
10/10/2008 | 8451.19 | (1874.19) | (18.15) |
7/22/1933 | 88.42 | -17.68 | -16.66 |
5/18/1940 | 122.43 | -22.42 | -15.48 |
10/8/1932 | 61.17 | -10.92 | -15.15 |
9/21/2001 | 8235.81 | -1369.70 | -14.26 |
10/3/1931 | 92.77 | -14.59 | -13.59 |
11/9/1929 | 236.53 | -36.98 | -13.52 |
9/17/1932 | 66.44 | -10.10 | -13.20 |
10/23/1987 | 1950.76 | -295.98 | -13.17 |
10/21/1933 | 83.64 | -11.95 | -12.50 |
Top 10 Weekly DJIA Point Declines | |||
Pd. Ending | Close | Wkly Point Chg | Wkly % Chg |
10/10/2008 | 8451.19 | (1874.19) | (18.15) |
9/21/2001 | 8235.81 | -1369.70 | -14.26 |
3/16/2001 | 9823.41 | -821.21 | -7.71 |
10/03/2008 | 10325.38 | -817.75 | -7.34 |
4/14/2000 | 10305.77 | -805.71 | -7.25 |
7/12/2002 | 8684.53 | -694.97 | -7.41 |
7/19/2002 | 8019.26 | -665.27 | -7.66 |
10/15/1999 | 10019.71 | -630.05 | -5.92 |
7/27/2007 | 13265.47 | -585.61 | -4.23 |
10/19/2007 | 13522.02 | -571.06 | -4.05 |
1/4/2008 | 12800.18 | -565.69 | -4.23 |
Breathtaking, just breathtaking. In the way that the Grand Canyon is breathtaking. Have you ever seen such a majestic market meltdown? I am in awe, still today, awaiting a plane to take me back to New York. A 1000-point swing in the day ... I mean, wow. It was like the Gemini out there (Ohio roller coaster reference). And honestly, who knows what's still in store? I think the swiftness of the decline is setting up a big rebound. But I am not at all convinced that we won't again plumb new lows after that run. The TED spread shows no sign of closing, and fundamentally, until the gap between what can be made on money and what it's being lent out at narrows, we've got big, big problems. That is basically the deal.
Eight straight days ... that ties the record. Monday was down in the end 1.5%. Great day for the market! (Best day all week.) Something tells me there's no end in sight for the volatility, whatever direction things head. RIGHT NOW is when people make the biggest mistakes. Like Jim Rogers has said (quoted in Paul Amery's excellent blog on our European site), buy panic and sell hysteria. BTW, we have Jim Rogers speaking at our Inside Commodities conference in the center of all the panicked hysteria at the NYSE on November 3.
There are still some spots available (reception on the floor of the exchange after the event), and I'm really looking forward to that one.
Make sure you're where you want to be long term and sit tight. This IS a good opportunity to square up your weightings. I like the S&P 500 (AMEX: SPY and NYRSEArca: IVV) and DJ Wilshire 5000 (AMEX: TMW) right around now. International feels more dubious than the U.S., though EM has its long-term appeal. On commodities, your guess is as good as mine. You've seen what a nose-diving economy does to oil prices. Take a deep breath and take in that view. This is history in the making.
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This article has 2 comments:
- Dan Weiss
- 64 Comments
My Website
Oct 12 12:40 PM- DavyJ
- 22 Comments
Oct 12 04:08 PMAcutually it was the first 1000+ point low/high swing in the DJIA's history.
The low happened first.
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