Dinah Balk

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Doesn't John Donahoe get it? Bill Me Later may increase sales but it will ultimately drive the last seller from eBay (EBAY) because allowing buyers to purchase wish list type items they can't afford without a short term extension of credit doesn't make sense.

There are no details of how Bill Me Later will impact eBay sellers have been forthcoming but this author predicts the following:

  1. Bill Me Later will be mandatory not optional for sellers.
  2. Seller funds may be held up to 180 days just like Paypal does.
  3. Sellers will be stuck with higher fees, more defaults & more chargebacks.

Does John really expect sellers to ship their inventory to buyers who can't afford it and hope they get paid? I think he does because Bill Me Later will generate more seller fees and eBay doesn't have to worry about taking a loss on inventory because they're just a venue.

eBay stock is now at a 6 year low because John has yet to discover that eBay's strength lies in its small sellers who sell hard to find, wacky, wonderful items that used to only be found on eBay. There's not very many of these sellers left because:

  1. Sellers can't sell due to ongoing SYI glitches.
  2. Search has been manipulated to the point of being nonfunctional.
  3. Seller information has been sporadically removed from buyer invoices.
  4. Shipping is capped at below actual costs for many popular media items.
  5. Paypal holds, chargebacks and buyer refunds have increased by leaps and bounds.

And the list of what doesn't work goes on and on seemingly without end or resolution.

Once the first seller receives notification that a Bill Me Later purchase has gone into default (resulting in a chargeback) the news will spread like wildfire on eBay discussion boards. This is likely to trigger another seller boycott or sellers will simply leave.

But sellers may have the last laugh. If Judge Fogel rules in favor of Malone in the class action antitrust lawsuit Malone v. eBay Inc. then sellers will be able to choose whatever payment method they wish, which has the potential to render both Bill Me Later & Paypal substantially overvalued.

Stock position: None.

This article has 28 comments:

  •  
    Oct 12 10:11 AM
    This article is dead-on. As an eBay seller I cannot believe the mother ship doesn't realize that without their sellers, eBay has absolutely nothing to sell. It looks like a death-wish and they seem to be chasing it at full-speed. They are so big that they don't know how to listen, and on the rare occasion that they hear it, they ignore us anyway. There's nothing that can be done for that. It promises to be a violent death and undoubtedly it will affect the financial picture even further.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 12 10:46 AM
    I truly hope that you are wrong, lol. eBay does not need another blunder. eBay needs to get their stock price up! eBay investors need to get a dividend down the road somewhere and make some money!

    Bill Me Later at first glance sounds good and will probably be good for eBay in the long run.
    Example...I want to buy something right now but don't get paid until Friday, or end of the month.

    Great! Seller gets paid through BIN....buyer gets billed within 30 days. That is called leverage! I think for some people this will be great...providing of course they have good credit and bank accounts!

    Many people are on fixed incomes...Social security checks come once a month! This service will be great for people that wish to pay later. Order now, pay later has been around for years! Magazines do it all the time!

    On the other hand....Bill Me Later could be eBay's worst nighmare in a few years due to non paying deadbeats!
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 12 12:20 PM
    Not many sellers are left:

    #6 (but should be #1) FEES! Try to sell something and make a profit when eBay/PayPal get 15% off the top.

    Reply
  •  
    Your article is dead on except for one thing. Donahoe knows how he enrages the sellers BUT he is under the delusion that sellers are a dime a dozen and totally replaceable and he can afford to lose however many it takes in order for him to institute his grand plan! What Donahoe doesn't get is the fact he is reaching "critical mass" - the point where most sellers throw up their hands and say enough is enough and I'm out of here! Its happening more so every single day but like Nero, fiddling while Rome burns, Donahoe is oblivious. This man, single-handedly, will be Ebay's downfall. Is nobody in authority over him? Donahoe is driving away Ebay's precious small sellers and destroying the very heart of Ebay and he's simply allowed to run rampant! About the most any of us can do is wait....perhaps when the present management is finally and completely swept out then we can go back in and rebuild the company we loved so much. If that doesn't happen then Ebay is doomed!
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 12 01:06 PM
    UGH ! All I know is, With this "No Paper Transactions" deadline of October 20th Looming, I Lost over $1200 in replenishing my materials JUST before he told us this. I feel like : as I'm going merrily along the One Way road of life, Suddenly JOHN DONAHOE rips the pavement up right in front of me. And I'm Stranded.
    I Can't believe he can't be Penalized for doing this. Labor Camps were MADE for people like him. Too much the "Yachting", not enough Dirt Work & Humility.
    Work Him HARD 'til he drops.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 12 02:35 PM
    I left ebay after 10 years of being a powerseller, i was getting buyers defrauding me via paypal because sellers have no protection there now due to the feedback changes.I also had a massive increase in none payers and people just clicking buy it now to leave negative feedback.

    Also so many people have left ebay that you can no longer auction anything as a seller because there are never bids or bidding wars like there used to be.If you list at 99p it will end at 99p usually.

    The dsrs are a ridiculous and immature idea and have damaged the site extensively because the search system is not fair and some sellers hardly get any visitors to their items due to this.

    Doing serious business on ebay is totally impossible.I'm using ebid now as the fees are much fairer.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 12 03:01 PM
    Yes, interesting predictions but why so negative? Paypal already has a "Buyer Credit" service. The seller is not responsible if the buyer defaults. There is no precedent to support your speculation. If anything, Bill Me Later will be an option sellers can offer at a higher processing rate (like Buyer Credit) and Paypal takes on the risk assuming the buyer qualifies for credit. There has been precedent where eBay will buy superior products instead of developing their own. For example, eBay bought Paypal (superior product) because their own service BillPoint was not as good. Paypal's Buyer Credit is not as good so they will replace it with Bill Me Later.

    Also, where did you get this figure for funds being held 180 days? What context does a 180 day hold actually occur? If transactions are held on eBay, they are sometimes 21 days unless you meet certain requirements:

    pages.ebay.com/sell/up...

    If you are required to offer a safer payment option, you might also be subject to holds on payment. PayPal may hold payments for the sale of an eBay item until the earliest of the following occurs:

    * the buyer leaves positive feedback,
    * 3 days after confirmed item delivery*
    * 21 days without a dispute, claim, chargeback, or reversal filed on that transaction

    *PayPal can confirm delivery. PayPal will confirm delivery if you use USPS, UPS, or FedEx to ship the item and (i) use PayPal shipping labels, or (ii) upload tracking information to PayPal via the transaction details page. This applies to US domestic transactions only.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 12 03:03 PM
    Dinah's response to everyone -

    Thanks for your input because everyone's opinion is important!

    FYI - eBay's latest batch of bad script makes it impossible for buyers to checkout according to numerous posts on eBay discussion boards.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 12 08:30 PM
    Ha,Ha,Hee.Hee.I am LOVING IT!! BYEEEeeeee ebay,Hello ola.com,Geeeez how I hate ebay after all these years of telling everyone how great they are,excuse me,WERE. I will be leaving after 10 years with a 100% rating,and 4.8+ across the board. I dont make a dime on shipping,a lot of my shipping is free. How the heck do I get a 4.8 on shipping? Screw ebay,I will miss them for about a week!!!!
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 12 08:53 PM
    What a crazy notion for an article. Some acquisition is a bad idea because some author can think of a really bad way of using some acquisition. Wouldn't it be just as easy to do an article saying how great Skype would be for eBay? Or an article about how bad the classified ad sites acquisitions are?

    Why not make the article what you really think: you don't like John Donahoe's management of eBay and leave it at that. How he does it, judging by the veneer of this article, is seemingly irrelevant when one just wants to attack the person.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 12:53 AM
    Dinah Balk is a notorious eBay basher her comments comments come as no surprise. She also knows little about Bill Me Later and the fact that they have an excellent credit reputation, in fact their success has been much higher than Credit Cards.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 05:52 AM
    Dinah's response to eBay+++

    Do you know what Paypal's data & fraud engine is?

    It's the false positives Paypal generates and then uses to place illegal holds on sellers accounts so they can earn money on the float while sellers struggle to pay their mortgage payments.

    IF there weren't going to holds on seller funds then why did Lavelle (BML Corporate Development) state that "PayPal's data and fraud engine will lower BML's loss rates" (currently at 1.5 to 2.0 percent) during a telephone conference during the first week of October?

    And what happens when a buyer files bankruptcy? Who's going to eat the default because most debtors have good credit up to the day their bankruptcy petition is filed.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 11:51 AM
    Uh, isn't the "Bill Me Later" philosophy what got the country into this subprime and credit mess to begin with? Correct me if I'm wrong!
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 12:24 PM
    Dinah's response to Crayon G. -

    You are 110% correct - that's why Bill Me Later makes no sense. Either a buyer can afford something or they can't. It's that simple.

    And if a buyer doesn't have a credit card, debit card, or bank account from which to make their purchase given today's lax credit standards, then a BIG red flare should go off at eBay headquarters.

    Btw, did you happen to notice that Donahoe didn't offer to let SELLERS pay their fees in installments, lol.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 02:00 PM
    Dinah Balk, funny you didn't respond to my comments on Bill Me Later and chose to bash Paypal? Shows your knowledge of Bill Me Later is seriously flawed. Do some research on the Product before you bash it.
    Your credibility is weak to none.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 03:15 PM
    I think that Dinah Balk is missing some key points here. Bill Me Later is a PayPal acquisition, not an eBay one. Everyone is so eBay-centric when looking at the eBay family of companies. eBay proper might not be doing so well, but PayPal is doing extraordinarily so. Bill Me Later will add even more to PayPal’s list of services. People shouldn't assume it is for use with eBay, nor that it will be mandatory if it is. PayPal, after all, is not mandatory for sellers, is it? This will only help PayPal as it becomes more and more ubiquitous on the internet as a whole and not just on eBay.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 05:35 PM
    Dinah's response to dmshs -

    Bill Me Later is an eBay acquisition, just like Paypal, Skype, etc. In a recent CNN interview, Donahoe stated that Bill Me Later was purchased to help increase eBay sales.

    You should check eBay's user agreement because PAYPAL IS MANDATORY for all sellers unless they have a merchant account, which most small sellers can't afford.

    You might want to surf the net for Mehmet vs. Paypal or Malone vs. eBay. Mehmet addresses the issue of Paypal placing fraudent holds on sellers funds by automatically generating FALSE POSITIVES. Malone addresses eBay's flagrant violation of the Sherman Antitrust Act. Both cases are being decided by Judge Fogel.

    And I hope you like your personal information shared with every single eBay acquisition because eBay added an addendum a while back that allows all eBay companies to share user information with eBay's entire "corporate family."
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 07:07 PM
    Under JD's policies implemented in 2008 to destroy its basic sellers, eBay has become unbearable for so many reasons.

    Some had no choice but to regroup since September at a new international auctions and stores site auctions8.com & starting fresh where first 1000 VIPs to register get everything free for life.

    List, Relist, Sell all you want and pay nothing forever.

    auctions8.com is owned and managed by determined & hard working group of members to become a permanent and safe home for all. Site is only for genuine sellers.
    Reply
  •  
    To be clear, merchants do not assume risk of buyer default with Bill Me Later. If a buyer does not make payments, then Bill Me Later takes that loss. Similar to how a merchant account works, sellers are paid in full right away, and buyers make payments directly to Bill Me Later.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 09:52 PM
    So Sara, can you also comment on these claims of unfair holds on seller's money, charge backs, and other annoyances with PayPal?
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 09:56 PM
    Thanks, ebay+++, for injecting some sanity into the fray.

    Dinah, your analysis of the dip in eBay's stock price shows that you know absolutely nothing about the stock market. Do you live in some kind of information bubble where eBay is the only stock? How do you explain Amazon's decline? Did John Donahoe cause that too? How about Google? Just use a basic online comparison tool and look at the 1-year chart for these three stocks. You will see that eBay is simply riding the same roller coaster that most other tech stocks are on.

    You have repeated your incorrect statement that PayPal holds funds for 180 days. They do not. The correct figure is 21 days, and only on risky transactions. There is a significant difference between 21 and 180. Repeat this misinformation again and risk being branded a liar.

    You continue to suggest that PayPal is mandatory. It is not. PayPal is optional. Most sellers wisely choose to offer it because buyers like it. If you decide that PayPal is not for you, then obtain a merchant account that accepts payments online. The fees for such a service are likely equal to or higher than PayPal except for the very upper echelons of PowerSellers who do massive numbers of sales per day. All the ones I've researched so far cost more. The dealbreaker for me is that buyers cannot pay my merchant account with their bank account. eChecks are a significant percentage of PayPal payments. I wish I had the exact numbers; it would be interesting to know.

    When you say "not very many of these sellers left", I find that hard to credit. I can find significant numbers of sellers offering antiques, coins, stamps, odd collectibles, and any number of "Everything Else" items I've never heard of before. I believe that you just made that up.

    Have sellers left eBay? Absolutely. Bad ones. Having seen the "pink slip" letters eBay sends these bad sellers, I can't say I have a problem with it. If a seller can't stay out of the bottom 1% of all sellers in terms of buyer satisfaction, they should be shown the door. Their poor practices hurt my business. I have bought on eBay before too, and have run into a few clowns over the years. I know how it feels to be a buyer who's held hostage by a dirty seller.

    Look at it this way. eBay reportedly has 1.3 million active sellers as of August 2008. If only the bottom 1% of those sellers are ejected, that's still 13,000 people. 13,000 people can make a lot of noise in the boards and on YouTube and in the press. But ultimately, they're 13,000 people that eBay is better off without.

    I can't figure out the anticheerleaders such as yourself who claim to want eBay to succeed, but can scarcely contain their glee when eBay is hit with a lawsuit (which will fail), and pray openly for eBay to die.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 09:56 PM
    Thanks, ebay+++, for injecting some sanity into the fray.

    Dinah, your analysis of the dip in eBay's stock price shows that you know absolutely nothing about the stock market. Do you live in some kind of information bubble where eBay is the only stock? How do you explain Amazon's decline? Did John Donahoe cause that too? How about Google? Just use a basic online comparison tool and look at the 1-year chart for these three stocks. You will see that eBay is simply riding the same roller coaster that most other tech stocks are on.

    You have repeated your incorrect statement that PayPal holds funds for 180 days. They do not. The correct figure is 21 days, and only on risky transactions. There is a significant difference between 21 and 180. Repeat this misinformation again and risk being branded a liar.

    You continue to suggest that PayPal is mandatory. It is not. PayPal is optional. Most sellers wisely choose to offer it because buyers like it. If you decide that PayPal is not for you, then obtain a merchant account that accepts payments online. The fees for such a service are likely equal to or higher than PayPal except for the very upper echelons of PowerSellers who do massive numbers of sales per day. All the ones I've researched so far cost more. The dealbreaker for me is that buyers cannot pay my merchant account with their bank account. eChecks are a significant percentage of PayPal payments. I wish I had the exact numbers; it would be interesting to know.

    When you say "not very many of these sellers left", I find that hard to credit. I can find significant numbers of sellers offering antiques, coins, stamps, odd collectibles, and any number of "Everything Else" items I've never heard of before. I believe that you just made that up.

    Have sellers left eBay? Absolutely. Bad ones. Having seen the "pink slip" letters eBay sends these bad sellers, I can't say I have a problem with it. If a seller can't stay out of the bottom 1% of all sellers in terms of buyer satisfaction, they should be shown the door. Their poor practices hurt my business. I have bought on eBay before too, and have run into a few clowns over the years. I know how it feels to be a buyer who's held hostage by a dirty seller.

    Look at it this way. eBay reportedly has 1.3 million active sellers as of August 2008. If only the bottom 1% of those sellers are ejected, that's still 13,000 people. 13,000 people can make a lot of noise in the boards and on YouTube and in the press. But ultimately, they're 13,000 people that eBay is better off without.

    I can't figure out the anticheerleaders such as yourself who claim to want eBay to succeed, but can scarcely contain their glee when eBay is hit with a lawsuit (which will fail), and pray openly for eBay to die.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 13 10:57 PM
    There's been some disagreement about how many days Paypal can hold a seller's funds so I copied & pasted the portions of Paypal's user agreement that specifically addresses this issue.

    Please note that under Restricted Activities, paragraph 9.1., subparagraphs l & m below are most often used to hold funds:

    l. Conduct your business or use the Services in a manner that results in or may result in complaints, Disputes, Claims, Reversals, Chargebacks, fees, fines, penalties and other liability to PayPal, a User, a third party or you;
    m. Have a credit score from a credit reporting agency that indicates a high level of risk associated with your use of the Services;


    10.2 Actions by PayPal. If we have reason to believe that you have engaged in any Restricted Activities, we may take various actions to protect PayPal, eBay, a User, a third party, or you from Reversals, Chargebacks, Claims, fees, fines, penalties and any other liability. The actions we may take include but are not limited to the following:

    a. We may close, suspend, or limit your access to your Account or the Services (such as limiting access to any of your Funding Sources, and your ability to send money, make withdrawals, or remove financial Information);
    b. We may contact buyers who have purchased goods or services from you, contact your bank or credit card issuer, and warn other Users, law enforcement, or impacted third parties of your actions;
    c. We may update inaccurate Information you provided us;
    d. We may refuse to provide our Services to you in the future;
    e. We may hold your funds for up to 180 Days if reasonably needed to protect against the risk of liability; and
    f. We may take legal action against you.

    And here's another clause in Paypal's user agreement that gives Paypal the right to hold sellers funds. Please note that the time period is NOT defined.

    10.5 Reserves for Premier and Business Accounts. PayPal, in its sole discretion, may place a Reserve on funds held in your Premier or Business Account when PayPal believes there may be a high level of risk associated with your Account. If PayPal places a Reserve on funds in your Account, they will be shown as “pending” in your PayPal Balance. If your Account is subject to a Reserve, PayPal will provide you with notice specifying the terms of the Reserve. The terms may require that a certain percentage of the amounts received into your Account are held for a certain period of time, or that a certain amount of money is held in reserve, or anything else that PayPal determines is necessary to protect against the risk associated with your Account. PayPal may change the terms of the Reserve at any time by providing you with notice of the new terms.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 14 11:37 PM
    What part of the Bill Me Later acquisition is based upon creating these business practices, Dinah? What would you think a fair value estimate without it would be? How much value does Bill Me Later bring to Paypal without regard to eBay (at other merchants, like Walmart or JohnnyBookStore.com)? In other words, help me understand the intrinsic value of Bill Me Later, the synergies between Bill Me Later and Paypal and then synergies between Bill Me Later and eBay. My guess is you really have no idea therefore I'm not sure how you can characterize the acquisition with or without any integration strategy you envision.

    Furthermore, your "either a person can pay or can't" is pretty wrongheaded. Responsible people are always choosing which card (debit, credit, charge) they want to use when. Furthermore, you can look at any number of reports that people still feel uncomfortable putting their card numbers online. Some might just find Bill Me Later easier than trying to find their card. I don't know what drives them, but I have quickly gathered that you seemingly don't either.

    I'd be interested to hear some numbers to back up your analysis.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 15 01:28 AM
    What you're quoting there is PayPal's warning to outright criminals, not eBay sellers.

    I quote: "If we have reason to believe that you have engaged in any Restricted Activities, we may take various actions to protect PayPal, eBay, a User, a third party, or you from Reversals, Chargebacks, Claims, fees, fines, penalties and any other liability."

    The restricted activities they're referring to include: Selling counterfeit goods (fake Gucci handbags), providing false information, fraud (collecting a refund from PayPal while at the same time charging back your credit card), hacking the PayPal site, disclosing private information (giving out the names and addresses of people who have paid you).

    Anyone engaged in those activities is, I repeat, a criminal. Legitimate sellers need not fear 180 day holds.

    A brick and mortar bank will engage in the same level of caution. If your bank thinks you're using your account to launder drug money or engage in other criminal activity, they are required by law to report it.

    If Bill Me Later too deems it necessary to "hold" the funds of suspected criminals, I wholeheartedly support that position.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 15 11:21 AM
    Bill Me Now is as poor of an idea as was purchasing skype. At a time when American are desperately trying to find their way OUT of debt, Donahoe buys a credit company. It sure looks like, yet another way, ebay's, CEO is trying to bury ebay and increase Paypal's take by making it's competition disappear.


    "And the list of what doesn't work goes on and on seemingly without end or resolution."

    ebay has put out an announcement that listings are not showing up with searches and won't be fixed until some time next week. This coupled with all of the other tests, glitches and counter-productive new policies screams Deliberate Sabatage from the very top of this organization.

    Whitman and Donahoe are both responsible for the disaster ebay has become. Their Disruptive Innovation scheme outline can be read by doing an internet seach of "Legg Mason Capitol Management Thought Leader Forum Donahoe". A break-down of it can be read by doing a search of "eBay’s Disruptive Innovation, How’s that workin’ for ya?".

    We all know that Meg Whitman has placed herself in the center of McCain's campaign, but did you also know that John Donahoe's wife is covering ebay's political hold by cozying up to Obama, also? Search "Obama's $150 Billion `Cleantech' Pledge Lures Deal-Hungry VCs" to learn more.

    It's HIGH TIME the government steps in and investigates the manipulating at the ebay monopoly. I hope they have several sets of handcuffs available when they do.

    Reply
  •  
    Oct 16 09:44 AM
    I can see that the ebay employees are here bashing someone who clearly understands why ebay is currently tanking like the train wreck it has become.
    Take a look at their stock price at a new 6 year low of $15.33 up from a low yesterday before closing of $15.01. I think that they can spew any corporate line they want, I will never sell there again and their stock price is reflecting the fact that their once "great" reputation is now DIRT.
    Reply
  •  
    Oct 21 12:39 AM
    It would seem as if Dinah were YADES - Yet Another Disgruntled eBay Seller. Dinah misses the trees for the forest. Or is it the forest for the trees. Either way, his analysis is short-sighted and lacks investment analysis rigor.

    1) Bill Me Later just landed PayPal (not eBay) on more sites that it did not have present access to. This means they just opened a can of whoopass in the payments industry.

    2) Bill Me Later is a credit facility. It offers single-channel facility for buyers to purchase goods on credit. How is this any different than buying with a credit card? It isn't and why Dinah doesn't get this is anything but clear.

    3) "Shipping is capped at below actual costs for many popular media items." Um. Duh?! It's about time! Sellers have been gaming the shipping and handling for a long time making auctions largely rediculous because you have to sit down with a calculator and go through each auction to determine what each one would cost by time you add in many of the asinine shipping charges.

    5. "Paypal holds, chargebacks and buyer refunds have increased by leaps and bounds." - based on what?! Where do you get this information? Looking at the general financials, these risks haven't budged much. This is an arrogant guess and unfounded.

    "Sellers will be stuck with higher fees, more defaults & more chargebacks." - I'm calling BS. Of course there are fees for transactions. Would it be any different if the merchant had a different merchant account? No. So where does this illogical reduction come from? Oh yeah, he's just another angry seller.

    "Sellers can't sell due to ongoing SYI glitches." - Then where did all of the revenue in the third quarter come from? Glitches? Yeah. Stopping sellers from listing? Obviously not all of them.

    So Dinah, before contributing to a financial site, maybe it's time you first learn how to analyze information and stop being a proponent of single-minded, clueless garbage wrapped up in your largely error-ridden, emotional ranting in the guise of journalism.
    Reply
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