Merrill Upgrades Sirius, Sees Merger Approval Soon
On the heels of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) issuing post merger guidance, and a sharp decline in price after the Goldman Sachs analysis, Merrill Lynch analyst Glen Campbell has raised their rating to BUY with a PO of $2.70 per share, a 20% discount from their YE09 DCF value of $3.42/share.
The analyst cautions the short term on weak OEM and subscriber numbers, but feels that these issues carry only a minor impact on long term values. Also noted by the analyst was the fact that the guidance issued by Sirius is more bullish than their own, but that the issue seems to center on timing of synergies.
Merrill Lynch sees merger approval happening in the near term.
Position - Long Sirius, XM
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This article has 55 comments:
I'm sirius......
At this point a 470 day decision is a pox upon the hose of the FCC that won't be easily forgotten. These companies have been literally stripped of 5.2 BILLION (since 12/1/2007) of market cap which greatly impacts their ability to be financed and operate with efficiencies.
There has been some great FCC Commissioners and Chairmen over the years. Their hard and decent work is stained by delays and political positioning of this degree.
I see this "Upgrade" to BUY as a GREAT SIGN from an analyst who is not patting himself on the back, and is barely being noticed by the Street. He has quietly said now is the time to BUY this stock when he told us all that it wasn't time to buy in April. Granted he has upgraded the stock, while lowering his target price from 2.89 - 2.70. Picking price is more difficult than predicting momentum, up and down trends, as we all too well know. So while Glen quietly goes back into his cubicle, I take his change in rating as a very positive sign for the momentum of this stock. These are the signals from analysts who just say it like it is researched and then give you opinions to act on. This article alone is worthless unless you connect it to his April 13th Assessment.
Killerkaul, I'm a democrat, but I'm trying to be reasonable. I didn't say the "right" are extremist, I said Glenn Beck is. All I'm saying is we're not going to get anything done about the issues if we can't find some compromise. I think we need to demand more compromise from our own parties. Because I'm sick of talking about the same issues over and over again.
I'd love to see someone ask them directly at one of those town meeting Q&A's the candidates put on....
Heck, it might even get to be on one of their agendas... at the rate this thing is going the merger could still be up in the air when they take office!!!
bradley just a few questions to see how reasonable you are: first are you pro choice. Second, what car do you drive. Third, are you against the death penalty. Forth how do you feel about outsourcing.
1. Pro-choice, but I think we should work toward ways to limit abortions. And abortions should never be allowed after the first tri-mester, except in cases where it's been learned that the fetus is not viable. But I can see where you're coming from if you're against abortion.
2. Volkswagon TDI--Deisel, But I ride my bike to and from work now.
3. Yes. Not because I don't think sick bastards should be gruesomely put to death for murdering someone else. But because innocent people are put to death. Can you see where I'm coming from?
4. Outsourcing--good questions. But I'm not going to write a thesis on this blog. In general, I'm for it. Because without it, we can't compete in a global economy.
How about you? And don't get all emotional on me.
By the way, to all others not interested in this discussion, my apologies. But I guess we've got to talk about something while we wait for the freakin' FCC.
SIRIUS WORLD
As to your car and being willing to outsource, that is a reasonable position.
Also, considering the way you feel on the death penalty and I figure that if that person was a admited killer you would not have a problem with putting him to death. Being pro choice is also reasonable.
You do understand if you were a liberal (unreasonable) your answers would have been; I drive a Toyota, and I am against outsoursing of any kind. Then you would have been for killing innocent babies and against killing admitted killers. You can see how these positions are not reasonable positions right.
I was just making sure we were dealing with a reasonable democrat, while from your prior post I should have known, these days it is getting harder to find.
The deal is that most democrats are more to the middle on your above issues than most would think; I think the same is true for republicans. The perception of conversatives is that they couldn't care less about the environment, creationism should be taught in schools, health care is fine the way it is, unions should be abolished, we should create one big corporation in america, and gays should be eliminated from the planet. Is that truly how all conservatives think? I doubt it; in fact, I'll bet it's a miniscule percentage.
But, to come full circle to the original discussion about Glenn Beck, he would have you think the way you do about liberals, and gives some democrats reason to believe the perceptions about conservatives. What would you say if I came on here and starting throwing around that we all should listen to Michael Moore, because he speaks the truth? You would think I was ridiculous.
Political campaigns and the media distort the reality and are not a true reflection of the people's beliefs.
So you think we should try to work together instead of continue to castigate each other? I'll convince my friends that republicans aren't evil if you'll do the same to yours.
killerkaul, I still kept my other shares at 1.86 should have sold those when it went up to 2.1, but I also kept the others I should have sold when it got to 2.7. So just call me stubborn.
waiting
2. If the Clinton Adm. had pass the the bill instead of vetoing it 13 years ago, we would be in the 3rd or at least in the first year of harvesting our own resources.
3. The French are practically Nuke energy fed why are we in America the most technological nation on the globe still arguing wether we should build any nukes.
4. If everyone in this group with money to play the stock market is worried about the price of gas maybe you should be more careful with your money. I own siri for the long haul and my Ford truck takes 38 gal.
5. Goverment agencies almost always move at the pace of snails so 470 days may not be slow enough for the farts at the FCC.
of Value
Your column is just an echo chamber, parroting warmed-over Wall Street research. This adds no real insight or incremental information to give it meaning, context, or perspective. If you seek to serve your readers well, and give them a real reason to click on you, please offer us something that we can't read on Yahoo! Finance or Briefing.com.
Do you talk with major shareholders? What are they saying? Who do you know in Washington? Have you reached out to anyone at C3SR? Original content drives readership.
You could add so much more to your column if you only developed some sources, took the time to call them, and synthesized your findings into a column that actually conveys original information.
www.fcc.gov/realaudio/...
They have accomplished absolutely nothing on any issue!
fjallfoss.fcc.gov/prod...
Can you believe that the NAB is now saying to the FCC that satellite radio may push them out of the autos altogether. I thought they were just saying they did not compete with satellite radio. SIRI/XMSR, should start to repull old FCC filings where the NAB said they did not compete with satellite. While the NAB last filing maybe true, it shows the FCC that the NAB cant be believed about anything they say anymore. That they say whatever suits them at the time. I mean can they get it right, first it was, to investors they compete with us, then it was they dont compete with us, and now it is finally they may put us out of business. I hope SIRI/XMSR makes sure that they are exposed, while one would think that Tate is not that dumb, why take the chance.
Not bad for a company that is suppose to be out of business soon. You people know who I am talking to.
killerkaul, remember when I told you, I dont like to say why this will be so big. on a blog, and I will tell you more after a decision is made. Not to long ago on Mike Stathis June 29th atricle, I posted this on June 29, 7:24PM:
Seamless82, shut the hell up, until the decision is made. The next thing you will see, is somebody using the 25mhz reason as to why the merger should not go through.
That FCC filing was one of the first times I saw that 25 mhz used. Just before that their was another article out about, why the merger should not be approved. It used the 25 mhz reason. and just how much of spectrum that it was. That it was more then all the terrestrial radio spectrum combined. It is also, as I told you one of the many reasons people will be very happy with SIRI in the long run. If this merger gos through many SIRI long investors (I mean 5 to 10 years long) will join me in retirement.
If you accept the frequent argument that big U.S. commercial broadcasters often misuse their spectrum by not serving the public interest, convenience and necessity — a contentious point, but one that finds a more receptive ear on this page than at most radio trade publications — how does it make sense to hand control of a yet more massive piece of spectrum to one large business entity (which, by the way, will be run by managers who helped create the very world of modern commercial radio that so many people love to hate)?
I supported establishment of satellite radio against the wishes of many in radio as an appropriate exploration of new technologies and new competition in use of the spectrum. However, regulators who licensed those two services (over competing claims) also established a prerequisite that their merger must not be allowed; they did so for a reason.
Those commissioners weren’t idiots; they already knew our media marketplace was blossoming into many choices. Proliferation of more competition since then doesn’t make their original intention irrelevant.
The regulators established such a restriction, in my view, because to hand control over a huge piece of spectrum to one and only one company would be nothing more than a federal giveaway of massive scope that would not benefit consumers and would be patently unfair to other businesses already competing in the broadcast arena under longstanding federal guidelines.
No amount of twittering around the edges with a la carte programming or minority set-asides is going to change that fact.
(Another way to tell this is a bad idea: If satellite radio had never happened, and then someone were to propose today from scratch the idea of selling one company exclusive, for-profit access to a swatch of public spectrum as fat as everything occupied by all of FM and AM combined, there’s no way it would be approved. Flat out no way.)
shure46..... You stated above that: "We are entering a time in history where things will cease to get better , and only continue to get worse ...little by little ...in life , and in economics ......the policies , and the peoples of the world are self serving and this will ultimately crumble" While using a "World" view of what's happening, this is not true of what's happening in the entire world just your part of it. While you say the "World" is self serving, you then state you want one more Bull Market, for yourself, so you can get out. A wise person once told me when I was younger, "You dislike most in others the things you like least about yourself".
I'm not trying to be too critical, and I agree that changes in the way "Our" government runs need to be made, but the "Sky Is Not Falling", it just feels that way. Lobbyists have played on greed to take control of our government. We need to elect officials that will remove lobbyist access to government officials, period. We need to make illegal, not just unethical, Political Action Committees PAC's, whose name misrepresent what they represent. For instance, C3SR saying that it represents Satellite Radio subscribers when it is funded by the NAB. We all need to take part by writing to, calling when given access, and voting locally for folks that are committed to protecting our industries, borders, environment, and energy needs. Do not let the parties decide for you. They at the extremes, what keeps us divided and powerless. Vote independently for the issues important to you and that serve everyone's best interest. Teach your kids and grandkids to do the same. Preaching "gloom and doom" is useless, as is living in fear of the coming end. It only breeds more of the "get it while you can attitudes" that have gotten us where we are.
I don't really care if we go to Mars. That's not the point. Mankind needs to explore, challenge, create and accomplish as 163888 has already said. We need to think about how to do things that are greater than ourselves and will take longer than our lifetime to do. This is how we will mature as a civilized society.
The energy problem is simply another challenge for us to solve. So pick yourself up and start thinking about ways to start solving them.
On Jul 04 01:02 AM 163888 wrote:
> You guys are going to love this one:
>
> fjallfoss.fcc.gov/prod...
>
>
> Can you believe that the NAB is now saying to the FCC that satellite
> radio may push them out of the autos altogether. I thought they were
> just saying they did not compete with satellite radio. SIRI/XMSR,
> should start to repull old FCC filings where the NAB said they did
> not compete with satellite. While the NAB last filing maybe true,
> it shows the FCC that the NAB cant be believed about anything they
> say anymore. That they say whatever suits them at the time. I mean
> can they get it right, first it was, to investors they compete with
> us, then it was they dont compete with us, and now it is finally
> they may put us out of business. I hope SIRI/XMSR makes sure that
> they are exposed, while one would think that Tate is not that dumb,
> why take the chance.
>
> Not bad for a company that is suppose to be out of business soon.
> You people know who I am talking to.
>
> killerkaul, remember when I told you, I dont like to say why this
> will be so big. on a blog, and I will tell you more after a decision
> is made. Not to long ago on Mike Stathis June 29th atricle, I posted
> this on June 29, 7:24PM:
>
> Seamless82, shut the hell up, until the decision is made. The next
> thing you will see, is somebody using the 25mhz reason as to why
> the merger should not go through.
>
> That FCC filing was one of the first times I saw that 25 mhz used.
> Just before that their was another article out about, why the merger
> should not be approved. It used the 25 mhz reason. and just how much
> of spectrum that it was. That it was more then all the terrestrial
> radio spectrum combined. It is also, as I told you one of the many
> reasons people will be very happy with SIRI in the long run. If this
> merger gos through many SIRI long investors (I mean 5 to 10 years
> long) will join me in retirement.
shure46, Come off it, how young are you. This is by far not even close to the worst economy we have had, it is not even a recession yet for god sake. I got news for you The Europeans have been dealing with 5 and 6 dollar gas since the late 80s. Here is a big reason the market came down. When the Fed said it was going to battle inflation that sent a signal to Wall Street that there was going to be no more Fed cuts of interest rates, and they may increase them. I sware I have seen this and people like you everytime saying the world is coming to an end every recession but this is ridiculous. P.S. The reason the trade defict is so great is the companies manufacturing, is over seas. It is also the reason people cant use the I buy a Toyota and they have factories here and that means they are putting americans to work. It is false because while they do do that, most of the money gos back to Japan and into their economy, samething that happens here.
By the way shure46 you are starting to be unreasonable so this will be my last post in response to you. It is getting to be to much trouble to respond to your apocalyptic Bible revelations sermon. I dont need your manifesto put up. Which then takes a post as long as yours to answer.
Killerkaul, do you see what I was saying about giving to much information out. While it was most likely a quintessence. I found it to be interesting that the first time we see this said is a few days after Seamless82 post the 25 mhz comment. All I will say is people, are going to be amazed at the possiblities that are instore for this technology many of which some know but most can not see. Those people that think this is a bad speculative investment dont have a clue. I will say that the NAB saying it would put them out of the auto market, will probably start them on their way to giving them the glasses they need to be able to see, satellite radio for what it will be.
On Jul 06 01:57 PM 163888 wrote:
> First of all what the hell happen to all the post about satellite
> maniea saying killerkaul misspelled "champaign". That was one of
> my funniest post yet
>
>
> shure46, Come off it, how young are you. This is by far not even
> close to the worst economy we have had, it is not even a recession
> yet for god sake. I got news for you The Europeans have been dealing
> with 5 and 6 dollar gas since the late 80s. Here is a big reason
> the market came down. When the Fed said it was going to battle inflation
> that sent a signal to Wall Street that there was going to be no more
> Fed cuts of interest rates, and they may increase them. I sware I
> have seen this and people like you everytime saying the world is
> coming to an end every recession but this is ridiculous. P.S. The
> reason the trade defict is so great is the companies manufacturing,
> is over seas. It is also the reason people cant use the I buy a Toyota
> and they have factories here and that means they are putting americans
> to work. It is false because while they do do that, most of the money
> gos back to Japan and into their economy, samething that happens
> here.
>
> By the way shure46 you are starting to be unreasonable so this will
> be my last post in response to you. It is getting to be to much trouble
> to respond to your apocalyptic Bible revelations sermon. I dont need
> your manifesto put up. Which then takes a post as long as yours to
> answer.
>
>
> Killerkaul, do you see what I was saying about giving to much information
> out. While it was most likely a quintessence. I found it to be interesting
> that the first time we see this said is a few days after Seamless82
> post the 25 mhz comment. All I will say is people, are going to be
> amazed at the possiblities that are instore for this technology many
> of which some know but most can not see. Those people that think
> this is a bad speculative investment dont have a clue. I will say
> that the NAB saying it would put them out of the auto market, will
> probably start them on their way to giving them the glasses they
> need to be able to see, satellite radio for what it will be.
Please save space on this blog by not cutting and pasting other's posts after your own. It's very annoying, at least to me. OK, I'm a bit grumpy today.