Well, imagine that: the economy really does have an impact on the growth of online advertising.

In a research note this morning, Pacific Crest analyst Steve Weinstein reports that Q2 online advertising is likely to grow in “the high teens” versus a year earlier, down from Q1 growth just under 20% and Q4 growth of 23%, “indicating a modest but steady deceleration.”

Weinstein says the weak economy has lead to a tightening of overall ad budgets. While that is driving some advertisers to spend a larger slice of their budget on the Web, taking share from television in particular, he finds that “online advertising would be growing faster in a more robust economy and ad market.”

Weinstein thinks the display ad business in Q2 will grow about 15%, from a high-teens rate in Q1. He says ad networks continue to take share in display ads; he sees growth in premium inventory rising slightly less than 15%.

Search, he says, should maintain a 20%-plus growth rate, but down from the high-20s estimated growth in Q1.

Weinstein says Google (GOOG) remains his top play on the sector, “because it dominates the most robust segment of the market.” He says the company’s deal with Yahoo (YHOO) “should lead to further share gains.”

Google today at close was down $3.35, or 0.58%, to $569.46.

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Eric Savitz

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