Ballmer on Newspapers: Wrong Again

by: Mathew Ingram posted on: June 06, 2008 | about stocks: BLC / GCI / JRC / JRN / LEE / MEG / MNI / MSFT / NWS / NYT / SSP / WPO    
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There’s lots of buzz out there about how Microsoft (MSFT) supremo Steve Ballmer figures the newspaper will be dead in 10 years — oh yes, and magazines too. Here’s what he said to the Washington Post:

Here are the premises I have. Number one, there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form.

The former basketball coach and Peter Boyle (as Young Frankenstein) lookalike immediately qualified his comments, of course, saying that “If it’s 14 or if it’s 8, it’s immaterial to my fundamental point.” So there you have it. The end of the newspaper, as foretold by the guy whose company completely missed the importance of the Internet, not to mention the importance of Web-search, and about a dozen other things I don’t have time to go into. No doubt Microsoft will help out with Newspaper 2.0, a piece of shrink-wrapped software that only costs $350 and takes a Pentium Quad Core and 3GB of memory to run.

Seriously though, this is the kind of thing people say to get attention — and I’m not just saying that because I happen to be employed by a newspaper. If anything, I am even more convinced of the digital revolution than Steve is. But will newspapers as we know them disappear in 10 years? No. And not in 14 years either — or 20 for that matter. Will a lot fewer people be reading a printed paper than read one daily now? Undoubtedly. I got asked about the future of papers as part of a panel discussion on recommendation engines at Mesh 2008 a few weeks ago, and I said what I always say: I think lots of people will continue reading papers — just not as many as are reading now.

People still listen to the radio, don’t they? Many of them listen to talk shows, and “radio plays” that consist of actors in a studio somewhere reading their lines. Lots of people still go to live theatre, and to the opera for that matter — heck, people still read books, and that technology is hundreds of years old. But not as many people do those things as used to do them when those forms of entertainment were at their peak. I think it will be exactly the same with newspapers — I fully expect to see people reading them for the remainder of my lifetime; they will just be fewer in number, and younger folk will see them as quaint.

This article has 9 comments! Add yours below...

Mathew Ingram

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This article has 9 comments:

  •  
    Jack dee
    Jun 06 06:13 PM
    yet another in a long series of MSFT bashing posts. So many little stories about how MSFT did not get this or that. Or how doomed they are. And yet decades after these stories started MSFT is bigger stronger richer.

    The real reason most of the fluff bits are written is to get more click through to blogs and sites.
    Why not just write a please click here to boost me thanks ...
  •  
    blah-blah
    Jun 06 08:19 PM
    The above commentor is totally correct.

    The author used to be a respected tech writer but this is some of the worst Micro-bashing I've ever read.

    Is there anyone involved in technology a little that doesn't believe that print will end up in niche markets at best?

    The author clearly has decided that his integrity and professionalism as a writer is worth throwing away to jump in with the crowd and write a bunch of bias crap.
  •  
    Muddling
    Investor
    Jun 06 11:17 PM
    My Website
    Totally agree with the article. Radio didn't kill newspapers, TV didn't, Internet won't either.
  •  
    Marcel
    McSweeney
    Jun 07 12:13 AM
    If i enjoy reading a 'magazine' online, I will order an old fashioned subscription so I can also enjoy reading it offline. I cannot read a PC screen leaning back in my recliner as easy as I can a magazine.
    Print vs Screen is not as valid as PC vs Typewriter
  •  
    karu46
    Jun 07 09:47 AM
    No need to bash the writer because he is a print journalist. Msft's past prophesies were mostly off base.
  •  
    mollytjm
    Jun 07 10:50 AM
    my son is a producer for AP online and HE has several magazine subscriptions and reads actual books. since he's in a newsroom all the time, he doesn't get newspapers delivered, but he does read them all online (we both read the Washington Post online).
    if you go into a large bookstore, you'll see people loading up on magazines to read and you'll see the kids reading those 'adult comics' and magazines AND books. they ALL have computers, often with them, but they still read the word printed on paper.
    i design special zoo exhibits and i always include books the kids can look through...and they go straight to them, holding them close when they leave, not wanting to let go of them. This bodes well for the printed word at least through the next 2 generations!
    and have you noticed that there are a lot more magazines these days?
    there's a reason.
  •  
    mysaug
    Jun 07 11:28 AM
    I am hardcopy subscriber to 2 papers, I am 50, see very few people under 35 buying newspapers regularly which is sad as need support for local coverage or all we will get is national news. Lets face it, many 20 somethings spend more time of Facebook than reading any news from any sources.
  •  
    Sanibel
    Jun 07 11:02 PM
    Ballmer is the dumbest CEO in the country. He has not been right on anyting of importance in his entire tenure as CEO. He is wrong about newspapers.
  •  
    muley101
    Jun 09 09:57 AM
    Newspapers will not disappear as long as the cable companies keep includig them in their subscriptions 'free' and keep throwing them in your dirveway, no matter how many times you ask them to stop. I have tried several times but its no use. They lay in my driveway, it rains, and they turn into turds that I have to shovel up. I wish Ballmer was right though.
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