Political Interests at Play in Satellite Radio Merger

by: Tyler Savery posted on: May 22, 2008 | about stocks: SIRI    
  • Font Size:
  • Print

Back in December of 2007 the FCC approved new media ownership rules by a vote of 3 to 2. The commissioners against the new rules were democrats Copps and Adelstein. Both commissioners have now issued statements in light of the recent senate vote to overturn the new rules. President Bush has promised a veto of any overturn attempt, so of course the entire issue is a contentious one. The National Association of Broadcasters has come out against the Senate resolution, citing “seismic changes in the media landscape over the past three decades.”

What sector watchers may find interesting are the comments of commissioner Copps and Adelstein. Can their position on the media ownership rule translate to their likely opinion on the satellite radio merger? The answer to that question is subjective, but the tenor of their comments could lead one to believe that the democrat commissioners will not be positive votes on the issues surrounding the proposed merger of Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR).

Adelstein Comment

“The Senate’s complete rejection of the FCC’s attempt to permit greater media concentration represents a great victory of the people over the powerful. In light of the Senate’s action, any proposed transaction seeking to exploit the new rules will likely face intense scrutiny. This vote reflects a strong consensus across the ideological spectrum against further media concentration, from left to right and virtually everybody in between. The FCC veered dangerously off-course from the American mainstream, so our elected representatives are trying to steer us back. This unequivocal, bipartisan rebuke of the FCC is a wake-up call for us to serve the public rather than the media giants we oversee. Chairman Inouye, Senator Dorgan, Vice Chairman Stevens, Senator Snowe and the many other Senate leaders and public interest organizations who pushed this forward deserve our congratulations and the thanks of the American people.”

Copps Comment

“The Senate spoke for a huge majority of Americans last night by voting to overturn the flawed FCC decision gutting our long-standing ban on newspaper-broadcast cross-ownership. With courageous leaders like Senator Byron Dorgan, the Senate has struck a blow for localism and diversity in a media environment crying out for more of both.”

Of the two, the Adelstein comment would seem to be more negative in terms of satellite merger watchers. This seems to have been the case for quite some time. Copps again speaks of public opinion. It will be interesting to see his stance on the Sirius and XM merger given that the vast majority of comments have been in favor of the satellite marriage.

FCC Chairman Martin in the past has indicated that he was having various situations drafted for consideration. He has also indicated a desire to make decisions unanimous if possible. In my opinion, the vote on the satellite radio merger will never approach a unanimous decision because the concessions that would be required to obtain it would cause Sirius and XM to walk away from the deal. Thus, the cards are on the table. The comments have been made, the commissioners have all had ample time to weigh the issues at hand. The biggest sticking point may well be spectrum and/or minority/public use channels.

Will Martin proceed to a vote with a 3-2 decision? Only time will tell. If he had any possibility of getting a 4-1 vote, he will likely try to negotiate quite hard, because from a perception standpoint, even a 4-1 vote would be a “victory” in the public relations arena for the Chairman. Copps and Adelstein have had a tendency to vote along identical lines. It would be an interesting turn of events to see this pair split on the satellite radio issue. At this point, it would appear that the biggest consideration right now is not public interest, but political.

Position - Long Sirius, XM

This article has 46 comments! Add yours below...

Tyler Savery

About this author:
Become a Contributor Submit an Article

This article has 46 comments:

  •  
    mgv11
    May 22 08:08 AM
    The politicians site public interest and I while I am long both siri and xm, I wonder if we should further explore this public interest they site. And I'd like to see some balanced arguements, ie objectivity... I'm not sure what I'm missing in my pro merger views. My son showed my news on what is happening in New Orleans with public housing etc, and my thoughts were, this is amazing how little national attention is being spent there. So while technology provides options that didn't exist 10 years ago, is that being offset by a concentration of ownership in the media? FYI, I listen to XM for CNBC and MLB.... music at times, I love it.
  •  
    ace22
    May 22 08:11 AM
    f***ing crooks!!!
  •  
    muley101
    May 22 08:26 AM
    Giving up half the spectrum in a rediculous requirement and the FCC should ignore any future statements from congressmen who make such requests, as they have no credibility. It's like requiring that Texaco and Chevron abandon half their oil fields, refineries, and gas stations in order to merge. Or like demanding that BellSouth and AT&T give up half their network and households to merge. Did anyone demand anything like that for those or any other large company mergers? Of course not. The spectrum is the company, and it's future. These requests are a ploy to block the merger because these congressmen do not have the rocks to just say they are against the merger and leave it at that. Demands like these must be ignored by the FCC.
  •  
    cos1000
    May 22 09:11 AM
    This is so frustrating at this point in the process, to watch all the rats running for the cheese. Politicians running for money and power, is the same as addicts running to their addiction.

    Unfortunately requests like these are not being ignored by the two Democratic FCC members. Sen. Snow, R., Maine and McCaskill, D., Mo are riding high after pushing through their vote to overturn the media ownership rules passed by the FCC. They are both positioning themselves as centrists in an election year, for favors in the fall. They are not saying they're against the merger, on no, that would be obstructionist, they are creating the framework, under a bipartisanship umbrella, that they know what's best for the merger to be approved. Give up spectrum, make sets inter-operable and allow any manufacturer to build them. The devil will be in the details in how to, and how much spectrum will need to be given up. Allowing any manufacturer to build the new sets will be a problem if the merged company losing control of the quality of the sets being built and customer service, warranty issues of these manufacturers. They don't want their "Brand" running on crap.
  •  
    killerkaul
    May 22 10:36 AM
    Cos1000, I don't think ther's a chance in h....ll that Adelbrain or Copps will vote for the good of the public vs their selfish, self serving, obstructionist politics. We can count on President Bush to do what he feels is right by vetoing, so that should be a given. Do you see any reason, in light of these proceedings, to delay a vote of the FCC, which is holding up this merger? It appears we can do no better than a 3 to 2 vote in favor.
  •  
    muley101
    May 22 11:06 AM
    Does anyone know how much spectrum the FCC has left to give to a new competitor without giving up any spectrum?

    Also, if they have to give up some spectrum, maybe something like Compress Technology (CTLG) could be used to expand the spectrum that is left to add more channels.
  •  
    163888
    May 22 11:25 AM
    muley101, I will say it again, I think it is 25% that was pulled back and not sold off.

    This is what I have been telling everyone!!!!!!!!!!!! Maybe now The democrats that want this merger, will write the right people instead of writing people that know already.
  •  
    163888
    May 22 11:32 AM
    cos1000, senator Snow is about as much a republican as Arnnold Schwarzenegger, or Mayor Bloomberg.
  •  
    muley101
    May 22 11:57 AM
    If they loose control over their manufacturers and allow anyone to make receivers, soon there will be milions of pirated receivers like there were for cable TV, but without any way to detect them.
  •  
    cos1000
    May 22 02:56 PM
    killerkaul....The reason I can see for the vote not being brought forward, and the 3-2 for the merger to be carried forward, is that they don't have a clear agreed upon draft to present for vote. Mel doesn't want to lose control of spectrum or manufacturing. If it me down to 8-10 minority channels "leased", he could easily get that from channels already provided, and make money too. I agree that the senate vote on media ownership rules will be vetoed, but it does raise some question of things to come if republicans lose more seats in the fall, and we have a Democratic President. I don't think that GTP is as relevant as they were, because clearly even the FCC sees that they're trying to get something for nothing. But GTP and now these Senators are doing their damage to this deal, making setting aside spectrum for future competition the issue and allowing another license to be granted. The problem is I don't think that the text and context for that to happen can be agreed to by anyone and therefore we are delayed.

    163888.... I agree with you that Snow is a Democrat in Republican clothing. What better way for her to position herself for a token cabinet seat with a Democratic President who wants to run as a uniter not a divider.

    muley101... that was the point I was trying to make this morning regarding Mel losing manufacturing control. With all the NAB and terrestrial radio money they could easily fund the production of inferior products, not support them, and damage sat rad's reputation. Look at how bad the portable sat rad radios that come with an am/fm tuner work. Their horrible.
  •  
    muley101
    May 22 03:07 PM
    My point goes beyond poor quality of reception. Cable boxes were made that allowed people to unscramble movies without paying for them. I knew several people that had them. The cable companies could detect them since the signal went 2 ways. Loose control of manufacturing and there will be millions of sets that can receive sat radio signal without paying for it, with no way to detect it. Congress has failed to protect the music industry from pirating to the point where there are more pirated CDs that ones that are bought. They will do the same for sat radio.
  •  
    163888
    May 22 04:26 PM
    cos1000, really cant blame her though, because if she was any more to the right she would never get elected as a republican in a state like Maine.
  •  
    163888
    May 22 04:28 PM
    muley101, Sure you KNEW PEOPLE who used them. Be honest there is nothing to be a shamed of. LOL
  •  
    163888
    May 22 04:35 PM
    killerkaul, and cos1000, You see the difference, you dont have people on this article, blaming the whole FCC. I think the reason here, is it puts in plane sight which commissioners are to blame for this debacle. It shows just what kind of crap Kevin Martin has been putting up with.
  •  
    cos1000
    May 22 04:37 PM
    muleey101.....I see your point, but unit I.D. serial #s require the unit to be on for ID verification, "electronic handshake" to take place before the unit can download channels. With Cable all that was needed was a "descrambler"... to be effective, you didn't need to call anyone or go on line to register and initialize the fake unit. SAT RAD Unit I.D.s are the current gateway. I don't think anyone but the SAT RAD companies can initialize the units registration. In other words if you build an unregistered unit, it can't be turned on. Even channel updates, and I'm sure new features require paid subscription with a registered I.D. Otherwise we would have seen some after market black boxes already from some disgruntled engineer.
  •  
    163888
    May 22 04:49 PM
    cos1000, I cant believe DSX and DRYs. You know how I said I wish I did not Buy at the level I did, then when they went up I got back out of what I just bought before and I am in again, but I thought 95 for DRYS was low enough and 35.5 was for DSX, I not so sure now though. Lets hope they shore up sometime soon. I am a little afraid DSX will drop some more after the EX date (23rd of May) for the dividend though. See what I was saying about keeping my eye on these during this time of the year.
  •  
    cos1000
    May 22 04:51 PM
    muley101....I should also add that while you "knew some friends" that had cable boxes....After my 6 years in the Air Force, in the early eighties when we were putting satellites up from White Sands , New Mexico, I work for Motorola Governmental Engineering.....as an engineering technologist, on our break we would see who could put one of these cable descrambler units together on peg boards, wafers, and watch tv. It was a game of changing fequencies without any real security. Did I say "We" I meant they would.
  •  
    cos1000
    May 22 05:02 PM
    163888....I just bought another 300 sh DSX at $34.70, might as well dollar cost average. I think they'll come back next week. DSX's dividend goes to shareholders of record as of May 28th. Although I own NAT & NM and they got wacked this week also after being at yearly highs.
  •  
    cos1000
    May 22 05:22 PM
    163888....These shipping companies do move on a dime and when they move there is money lost or made quickly....I've got to try and figure out good buy and sell stops. I definitely see why you have to keep your eye on them....and they leave little time for much else if you want to make money.
  •  
    cos1000
    May 22 05:27 PM
    163888....Sirius at $2.60 on the way down is acting like Sirius $2.85 on the way up....I think I'll look for some direction on Tuesday before I get back in with the shares I sold at $2.85. I'm afraid if there isn't any news we could break this level and see $2.35-$2.45 again....What do you guys think.....killerkaul? anyone?
  •  
    163888
    May 22 06:55 PM
    cos1000, Yea baby I almost bought that 2000 back, when I saw it goto 2.56, decided to wait till it gets to 2.5 though. I will buy at 2.51. if the 2.5 ask volume is lighter then the 2.51 bid, volume though.

    As for the DSX, yes it is the 28th but you have to buy it by the 23rd to be a share holder of record as you know. I expect because of that, that it will go up Fri. You know everyone will be trying to get in for the .85 cent dividend. I think we will see 36 at some point Fri. Then it will go down some agian, until the 5th then pop again, Just a opinion It has gone both ways before so who knows.

    Hey, Sirius Buzz Radio on tonight at the new time of 10:00. It should be another good show.
  •  
    cos1000
    May 22 07:20 PM
    163888...Yeah on DSX I wrote the record date down instead of the ex-date, glad I bought the shares today, but your right about them going down until after the 5th. I'm running into that with NAT which had an ex-date of 5/21 on $1.18/sh dividend.

    Why do you think Sirius will hold at $2.50. I think your right about $2.50. I thought I get in on 2000 sh and wait on the other 3000sh if $2.50 doesn't hold. I just think with all the BS and no news people are getting tired.

    I'm going to try to make Sirius Buzz tonight, I like the live vs recorded format. I think Tyler does a great job!
  •  
    oregonduck
    May 22 11:56 PM
    As an attorney who deals with government crap all the time representing my clients, this is hardly unusual. But, I think that a deal will be struck. Money talks and Martin has the votes. This press release was clearly cover for what will be a future vote for a Merger--or possibly an abstention. I think that the time is due to lawyers drafting the documents and XM and Sirius lawyers dealing with the FCC attorneys on the final draft, which has to be fairly complex. Keeping everyone quiet must not be easy (including Howard Stern). That is why things have been so quiet.
  •  
    ITS A
    SIRIUS WORLD
    May 23 12:39 AM
    FCC is full of it
  •  
    163888
    May 23 06:05 AM
    cos1000, it is just a feeling I have. Plus I would like to get in before something happens that sends it up, at 2.5 really no down side risk wouldn't you agree. I mean it might go as low as 2.35 and at that point, I may go against my better judgement and buy some more. My greed with this speculate stock is sucking me in more and more. I now some say why not buy more XMSR instead but If the merger doesn't go through most analyst think SIRI is the better of the two to weather the storm and SIRI is worth at least 2.35 without the merger anyway. I have to say I think if the merger was never announced SIRI would be at least in the high 3 dollar range. We would have seen much better net adds these last quarters. The confusion is killing the retail market. If a merger is killed people will stop pegging SIRI with XMSR. If you recall even just before the merger was talked about bad news for XMSR for some reason was bad news for SIRI. XMSR would miss or reduced its estimates that would bring SIRI down to, even when SIRI kept its estimate the same or increased it. That never made sence to me, and all that would stop, heres hoping anyway.
  •  
    163888
    May 23 06:12 AM
    oregonduck, I hope you are right. I had thought that they were talking with the FCC already just after the DOJ approval and each knew just where the other stood concerning concessions. I figured back then it should only be a matter of a few weeks to get the wording down, that was almost 2 months ago though.
  •  
    163888
    May 23 06:29 AM
    cos1000, Go back to the article by Stan Muse aka; muley101, on May 20th about what happens if the merger does not happen. Tell me who is right me or yoyoYO. I ask because, I know you have done plenty of reaserch yourself, and will give a honest answer.
  •  
    muley101
    May 23 07:39 AM
    Nope, never had a descrambler, honest. There was a guy from my country club selling them to members, though I never bought one.
  •  
    163888
    May 23 07:43 AM
    muley101, I'll take your word for that.
  •  
    cos1000
    May 23 11:25 AM
    163888.....From what I read, and now have re-read, from Stan's article I agree as you both did in the end that the accounting and counting of subscribers is a "Shell" game. I totally agree with you that whenever you can get payment up front, which then is reflected as deferred revenue as SIRI does, your better off. This increases the negative on ARPU because of the negative impact of deferred revenue but increases the positive effect of SAC, subscriber acquisition costs, by increasing revenue over time, receiving cash while the cars sit in OEM's lots and then convert when sold from deferred revenue to revenue when the subscription is actually sold/transferred to the new owner.

    This is an accounting and operating practice that does give SIRI better upfront cash flow. As you know, and I believe you were trying to get across, XM tries to offset the negative impact of their OEM deals by saying counting them publicly, Marketing, but not in their reporting to the SEC, Accounting. I don't think yoyoYo was really understanding your point of this Cash Flow advantage.

    The SIRI OEM deals in which they receive revenue and can count subscribers when cars are sitting in parking lots is clearly a cash flow and marketing advantage, but, it impacts negatively ARPU and "churn rate" when they don't convert "parking lot" subscribers, to users/owners of these vehicles when sold. Each company will take the best of their #'s and "Market" them to new investors, analysts, and current shareholders. Sirius' deals are a result of market maturity at the time of their point of entry. They learned from XM's OEM deals. In the context of your comments with yoyoYo, I score 6-4, in your favor. How's that for being wishy, washy.

    Bottom line, until these companies can improve cash flow, to profitability, they are at risk of failure. Both of them. We can argue who will fail first, but that's true speculation in a liquid marketplace. So I guess that has me agreeing with Birdman264 who gave a lot of good information also, in a very objective manner. His focus was not on subscribers because he recognized the apples and oranges comparison between the two companies.
  •  
    jimmydasaint
    May 23 12:13 PM
    My Website
    Guys,

    Get your mind off this stock for a while and check out The All American Home Run Derby at Letsgodeep.com!

    Play their new Fantasy Home Run Derby game for Major League Baseball and put the Sirius/XM Merger talk on the back burner for a while!

    This deal is going through in Mid-June guaranteed!
  •  
    163888
    May 23 12:22 PM
    cos1000, I can agree with you analysis totally. I still find His assertion that XMSR has 60% of total OEM deals to be a big stretch though, when considering the dual deals that Toyota, Scion, Lexus, and Subaru. His contention is that SIRI would be lucky to have 1% of Toyota, now while we both know that that information is not disclosed I find, to say 1% to be more on the delusional side, then based in reality. It still makes no sence to say 60% just by the fact that you would also have to say the models that Subaru sells with SIRI is none.

    I will say this, man was I wrong on DSX and DRYs wow.
  •  
    killerkaul
    May 23 12:35 PM
    RE: 163888, Cos1000, and Oregonduck.... Cos, thanks for the reply on the vote. 888, I had one of those boxes, and used tin foil on rabbit ears, before that. Finally bought it after tasting the "good life". Sat. radio will be the norm, in the future, in just the same way. Long Siri. Also, good point on the sat. black boxes. Also, thank you for your military service. At the very least you should have long term security in the shipping stocks, with their forward yearly contracts lined up with all of the liquid gold, and ROW. business. BWEN was down yesterday-bought 500s. at 21.39. I see it's at 19.70 today. May have to buy some more today-average down, just can't pass up a bargain. {Buffet's buying wind}. I think you're right in that Siri is working it's way slowly back to 2.50, and probably to the low 40's, on lack of any positive news, and weariness of the shareholders. I do have a feeling that the first of next week will be on the upside. Will have to check out the Sirius Buzz program since you guys are showing interest. Oduck, it's good to hear your take on the "deal," from an attorney's perspective. Thanks. 888, I agree that anytime you can buy Siri for 2.50 or <, there is almost no downside risk left. Load up! Just my opinion, dollar cost averaging, it's a wonderful thing!!! I also agree that there is an element of greed involved. My reckless accumulation of siri stock to this point, makes buying" just a little more", at these prices akin to just "one more shovelful of dirt thrown on my casket". LOL. I'm afraid I wouldn't touch xm, I feel "the street" sentiment has decided, that Siri is, the "annointed child." Don't forget the "ace in the hole", Mel K. BLUE DOG, stretch out..... and run baby run!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  •  
    163888
    May 23 12:53 PM
    Killerkaul, nice post I agree. I also think the dry bulk sector is going to skyrocket soon. I just read a article by Simon Constable from, The Street.Com. I have to say the good news for dry bulk shipping just keeps coming. People think oil is high, check out what their projections for spot rate for capesize ships will be. They were saying they could go from 200,000 per day to 300,000 per day. Just over a year ago they were getting something like 36,000 per day. the profit margins are going to be even more then they already are amazing.
  •  
    cos1000
    May 23 02:37 PM
    killerkaul.....163888.... Well we got some news from Martin and the FCC. He says"XM-Sirius Ruling Could Come By June 30th". He also says it is not on the agenda for their June meeting. This is really hurting their retail opportunities in the Fall through Christmas, not giving much time for all that Summer marketing.
  •  
    killerkaul
    May 23 03:21 PM
    Cos.- Just saw that myself. What's your opinion {Cos./888}, on weather this is just another stall, to run the stock up, before the big letdown and the subsequent drop, once again in share price. You've watched and heard Martin for much longer than Iv'e been paying him any attention. Is he on the level here? Tyler?
  •  
    cos1000
    May 23 03:50 PM
    killerkaul.....This is not the kind of news that I would think would run the stock up. Martin was decisively vague and he needed to say something about the mid June meeting agenda. I would only be speculating to understand why. As oregonduck said yesterday the lawyers are hammering out a written agreement that can be agreed to by the parties and voted on by the commissioners. I floated the idea yesterday that maybe Martin doesn't have a 3-2, but rather 2-2 with one republican on the fence. That's a nervous opinion only...
  •  
    killerkaul
    May 23 04:02 PM
    RE: Cos, You could very well be right. Hope you're wrong on the 2-2 with 1 riding.
  •  
    163888
    May 23 05:08 PM
    Killerkaul, lets not forget that he has stated the same thing twice before. The first time by himself, the second time he had another Commissioner joining him maybe this time he has the third republican.
  •  
    163888
    May 23 05:31 PM
    Killerkual, I dont know if you remember the arguement I was having with JIM at the Barrons or WSJ about 3 or 4 months ago, about why it was taking so long for the FCC to make a decision but I restated one of the possible reasons on Stan Muse's last article at May 20th 4:14 PM. It deals, with the possiblity of a wild card commissioner and Tyler also spoke about it in his Sirus Buzz Radio show 2 weeks ago. I personal cant believe it has taken this long to get this commissioner to come along and will be vary disoppointed in him as a repblican to let this go this long. But as I gave in the same post on Mat 20 at 4:14, my opinion on what the vote would tell us what or really who the hold up was. I think cos1000 would agree with it.
  •  
    cos1000
    May 23 05:55 PM
    163888...I do agree with your assessment of the vote...and I feel that if Martin had the votes without serious concessions, disagreeable to Mel K., he would have already moved forward...Tate is always a no vote. The wildcard republican isn't a consideration I took seriously until late, with no decision in May, and now this June, which could easily mean mid July meeting agenda, and then vote. That would be very bad for the manufacturing, shipments, & deliveries of new equipment for the Fall season: Forget Marketing it all.
  •  
    163888
    May 23 08:12 PM
    cos1000, I agree this is a travesty, It would have been better at that point for them to have just denied the whole thing back in JAN.
  •  
    killerkaul
    May 25 09:31 PM
    RE: Cos and 888, If it takes till late july, the share price is going to be in the toilet. Would make the NAB contributors happy,and the FCC could say they did all they could with all of the pressure on them to vote on the merge. This would hopefully justify keeping the under-the-table money from the lobbiests. I'm hoping that I'm missing something here , and that oregonduck's synapsis is the correct one. Yes, No???
  •  
    163888
    May 27 07:05 AM
    Killerkaul, I used to think the same way as oreonduck, back when the DOJ approved of the merger. The problem now is it should not have taken this long unless both the companies and the FCC were not talking before the DOJ approved. One would think that behind close doors Mel would have made it vary clear, to K. Martin what he was willing to accept and not accept, well before the DOJ approved. My final opinion is that this has taken way to long and should have been denied along time ago if the FCC comes out with concessions that Mel cannot accept. The only way the FCC can save any face at this point is to take the concessions Mel is willing to give and, make it look like what the 2 democrat congressmen did, which was make it look like they were telling the FCC to demand something that was not already going to be given anyway by Mel. You would be suprised at how many people that fools. For example you have seen all the responses on blogs when the two democrats said that crap. The majority of people took it like the 2 were asking for the world and standing in the way of the merger. Us more intelligent people saw it for what it was posturing and pandering. I personally saw it as a positive. That they could see the writing on the wall and needed to be able to say, see we were working for you the people, you see all that we got for you. It was almost everything we were asking for. The sad thing is many would believe it.
  •  
    killerkaul
    May 27 07:34 PM
    RE: 163888, That's possible. Don't you feel with every interested party out there, asking for a piece of the siri pie, that the FCC can just say that the complexity of the many and various demands from these outside groups necesitated this very long delay, in the interest of the {PUBLIC, WHO OF COURSE, IT IS THEIR SWORN DUTY TO PROTECT}! Surprise, Surprise!!!.............. This way they don't have to give up, or concede a thing. Just a thought.
  •  
    163888
    May 28 11:26 AM
    killerkaul, Yes I would, I have to say the more people and groups that ask for things from SIRI/XMSR shows the original few to be as foolish as the groups now. As you said, who does the FCC give something to. When Tyler put that article up about that other group wanting 15% for themselves I thought it was a joke to show how stupid this whole thing was. By the time we are done there would be no company left to merge. Instead of one company we would have ten individual companies.
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:

ETFs In Focus

  • Long Ideas

  • Short Ideas

  • Cramer's Picks