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Sirius/XM Deal Extension - More Pending Action

by: Tyler Savery April 30, 2008 | about stocks: SIRI    

Tyler Savery

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Pending. It is a fitting word for Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR). The merger is pending. Annual meetings will be held pending a decision on the pending merger. The FCC decision is pending while investors wait on the pending merger and the pending annual meetings. Investors are waiting for pending news on the merger so that they can receive the pending guidance from the company on the outlook of satellite radio going forward. There is so much pending in SDARS that Sirius or XM should trademark the name.

The latest in the pending column is the extension of the merger agreement between Sirius and XM. Once again, pending news has people considering many things as it relates to the sector. One thing in my opinion is certain. The pending decision regarding the merger deal extension will be an extension of the deal at the current terms.

With DOJ approval in the bag, a shareholder vote that has already approved the deal, and what is anticipated to be an imminent decision, the only real choice these companies have is to continue the course or walk away, and walking away is not a realistic option.

Some invested in one equity or the other feel that the company they are invested in should have gotten a better deal. I have seen arguments on both sides of this issue. My opinion is that this deal came to a point where neither party (XM or Sirius) outright won or outright lost. The deal was about as “fair” as it could be. One has better retail presence, the other has longer term OEM deals. One has Stern, the other says only for a couple of years. One has the NFL, and the other MLB. Each accuse the other of overspending. One has higher debt, the other has future capex costs that will become debt. One has newer satellites, the other has Mel Karmazin. The arguments could go on all day, and in many ways the arguments are quite subjective. In the end, we have two companies that will merge, create synergies, and take the sector from losses to profits.

Thus, while the deal extension news is PENDING, investors should consider that there is only one real course of action that will be taken. They will extend the deal as it is currently constituted. Plain and simple. No renegotiation, no new shareholder vote, no real fanfare. The only real answer is obvious, and when it is announced, at least we can remove one pending from the situation.

Position - Long Sirius, Long XM

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This article has 39 comments:

  •  
    Apr 30 06:05 AM
    I have never doubted the extension of the deal.

    What has been in doubt is the language that the two companies will use when they release the extension. Will they be laid back and confident? Or will they be firm and angry? I want to see the FIRM response, so that they can let the FCC know that they are NOT walking away from this deal without a decision.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 06:07 AM
    I have no idea why it keeps listing my name as User on the first comment.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 07:35 AM
    I think not only are investors waiting but also some customers. I personaly broke a radio (or maybe melted on the dash) and will not purchase a new one until this is over so i know im not getting outdated equipment. This could not be good for business in either company, the merged companies sales will shoot like the coiled spring theory. citi's estimates may be inline with many people like myself in a holding pattern
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 07:42 AM
    My decision on what car to buy is "pending" on the outcome!! I have e-mailed the FCC and they could care less, No response.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 08:10 AM
    You two jolychaly, and PJH are going to be waiting a long time the interoperable radios wont be out for about a year.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 08:22 AM
    yea but maybe after the merger we would have a better idea of exactly how the old radios will be affected. i have the life time deal with sirius with two radios.. both are the same so now i just switch them between my two vehicles. the life time deal means the life time of three radios, so it is worth my wait to get the one that will last the longest. the one that broke was the life timer and the other one i think is 5.95 a month for the second.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 08:32 AM
    I hear yea, But Both companies have said no existing radios will ever be obsolete, that should help.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 09:13 AM
    I dont understand how the fcc is getting away with this. clearly they are all a bunch of crooks benifiting from the downfall of these two companies someone other then tyler should do something!

    p.s. tyler, you look like a convict in your new photo
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 10:10 AM
    Re- Ace 22, That's cold Ace!!!
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 10:56 AM
    Its because of the Prison Orange Shirt. You should take a picture wearing a different color... also... you look a little pale get some sun or see a doctor.

    Anytime and anything the goverment gets involved in it seem to take forever and what is the benefit they are providing. Nothing.
    The FCC is a waste of space. Maybe Osama Obama can do something about them. We need some change.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 12:14 PM
    I am in a holding pattern. I want satellite radio but am waiting on the decision. I think alot of consumers are in this position
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 12:44 PM
    TYLER AND "CRAMER THAT MAD GUY" HAS BEEN ONE OF OUR BIGGEST SUPPORTER FOR THE MERGER OF SIRI AND XM. I THINK THE FCC WANT TO SEE IF SIRI AND XM WOULD BLOW OFF THEIR DEAL TO MERGE. IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEND. THERE TIME LINE NEEDS TO BE INVESTIGATED MAYBE BY THE DOJ. ALL I CAN SAY IS THE RIDE IS ALMOST OVER AND WHEN IT IS EXPECT SIRIUS TO BE AT $5.00 A SHARE OR MORE.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 12:57 PM
    Karmazin won't give the concession they're after. Sirius the
    company is doing great right now -- consolidating SR content
    is its goal and the reason for wanting to merge. Synergy is a
    presumed benefit, but "complete" content is the essential
    missing feature of SR -- you don't need two separate TR
    radios to catch an NFL game one day and a MLB game the
    next. However, the FCC has found itself in a corner of having
    to placate NAB (TR) in order to proceed with the SR merge.
    Since the DOJ has approved the merge (and by so doing has
    eliminated concern of "audio monopoly"), the FCC should only
    be ironing out fundamental details of the merged company,
    not seeking crippling concessions by SR to boost TR. The FCC's
    time has expired; indeed, 14 months is about six months too long
    to formulate a simple acceptable pricing menu. I believe any more
    extension of time will only increase the detriment to SR -- the
    FCC is holding SR hostage which benefits the competition (NAB).
    The FCC's job is to ensure a competitive environment for the
    benefit of the consumer, not to transfer one company's CORE-
    attribute to the competition through coercion strictly for the
    promotion of the competition, strictly to give NAB the ability to
    bury SR... There should be no extension given by SR, and if the
    merge is not approved by May 1st then SR should seek another
    path to establishing consolidation of content.

    ps: "Ace22" ought to paste his/her mug-shot... On second
    thought, no thanks:) Tyler does a fair job. That's what it's
    all about, fairness and reality.

    Nick d'John




    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 01:36 PM
    A Convict....A Prison orange Shirt....Pale

    My oh my. Well, I am not a convict, the oragnge shirt is a comfortable long sleeve shirt that fits the bill on a chilly spring day, and I am in New England.....the sun does not exist until June!!!

    Cheers everyone
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 01:47 PM
    This is BS. It is going through.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 01:47 PM
    hey Tyler, i like your new photo, that serious mysterious blogger/writer look. :) Just have your graphic artist Photoshop the orange shirt to blue or red or whatever, that's all. And if you want some tan, the artist can give you that, too. I think you look fine. This pic shows more of your personality than the corporate suit pic.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 02:44 PM
    145131, I have seen some dumb ass comments but that one about Obama takes the cake. Do you have any insight into the FCC and DOJ? If a democrat had got into office, instead of a republican there would have been a difference alright. We would be talking about how long do you think it will take for SIRI to over take XMSR in subs for the last 12 months. There is no way in hell ether the DOJ or the FCC which would have democratic control of both enites would have let this one through. Who on the FCC do you think is against this merger, which state A.J.s want to make the satellite radio indrustry into a welfare program? ANSWER = THE DEMOCRATS.


    Now let me get this right, the change you want is to put the most liberal, racist, american hating President in office. Clinton lies too but at least everyone knows it. You know it is amazing to me that people cant see what is right in their faces. Its not that hard to figure out. You here that crap Wright says that he and his wife have been listening to for the last 20 years, put that with all the crap Obama and his wife say and do (no flag pin, his wife "This a down right mean country" "I have never been proud of my country in my adult life time until now" both said in the last year, Has a friendly relationship with a known terrorist, ect., ect.) Now I dont know about anybody else but I would not even want to be with in 100 feet of a person that blows up buildings, unless it was to slap his ass. That is the change you want?
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 03:01 PM
    Tyler, it is funny because I had thought that also (you looked like a convict) when I first saw the new picture, But I am not looking to date your ass, so who cares. You still have most, of the best insight and information on the satellite radio industry.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 03:23 PM
    correction; A.J. should have been A.G.= attorney general
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 03:30 PM
    Tyler,

    Thank you for your continued support of and attention to this PENDING merger. I like your new photo by the way, it's a lot more relaxed than the old one.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 03:33 PM
    When the 'trust' issue is raised regarding government (politicians and agencies), I recall transparency being one of the aspects to strive for . . . but rarely implemented.

    Any reason the FCC does not articulate their position or operating procedure? Or is silence the current official FCC position because they are not in the position to speak the truth in public regarding the XM/SIRI merger?
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 05:44 PM
    Re: 16388- April 30, 02:44 pm............. Sicem!!!
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 06:15 PM
    I have 4000 shares that I will sell for $7.00 per share any takers?
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 06:17 PM
    The FCC are comprised of Political Appointees, not elected Officials. They answer only to their Political Party's and party supporter's wishes, not the public. Currently they are 3 republicans and 2 democrats, about as close to deadlock as you can get in an election year. The republicans have allowed this merger decision to last this long by supporting it. The democrats have ignored it.

    The FCC only acts quickly when its partisanship is 4 to 1 in either parties favor. By mandate they can only have a maximum of 4 appointees from one party (can you imagine being the one appointee from the other). This is a political commission with no interest in doing good work for either citizens or consumers. Their agenda is to move forward the agenda of their party and the businesses that contribute to it.

    Writing them as citizens and consumers may get you a file # for your e-mail but not much else. Even knowing this I still write, (it makes me feel like I'm making a difference) even though I know they could care less. If anyone here thinks changing who our President is will change the way the FCC functions they're only kidding themselves.

    Our gridlock in congress prevents any meaningful change on just about any important issue that matters to the consumer or citizens of this great nation. Big Business is and has been winning for a long time.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 06:31 PM
    Could Stern's constant bad mouthing of the FCC actually have come back to bite him, Karmazin and us?
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 06:54 PM
    Stern is an entertainer that lives at the edges of what the FCC feels it needs to protect the public from. The strength in this merger going through is the Republican members' support. Stern makes republicans and their need to protect their conservative constituency, take pause. He's certainly not helping....
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 07:12 PM
    jdaniels, yea just hold on to them for 2 years for me.

    Cos1000, man this must be a record we agreed for the most part the last two times.

    Wez, Stern doesn't help. If you have noticed Mel and even J. Cramer are vary careful not to blame the DOJ and the FCC. Cramer more or less blames Congress members for influencing the FCC, But vary rarely directly criticizes the FCC. Even in a Barron article not to long ago when they said, Mel was getting fired up and angry with the length of time it has taken the DOJ to decide. After reading what he had said I found no comments that would have sounded confrontational. as a matter of fact he went out of his way to put certain things in a most kind way.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 07:19 PM
    Cos1000, that makes it 3.
    Reply
  •  
    Apr 30 07:25 PM
    163888 ....I just marked this day down in my calender as a good one...
    Reply
  •  
    May 01 12:36 AM
    Well.. talking politics, eh? Sure is nothing to talk about with SIRI. I tried to hold on today, but just couldn't do it. I'm still in a little, but I dont like this trend and I'm not holding for 2.40 again. I think I'll just wait until the politicians make up thier minds or the stock hits $2.40 (or less). What sucks is that I really like this company and its story...it has a great future. However, as long as these dolts have the ball, we're just gonna suffer. Still a little long...not feeling very strong...options crushed me today....and I am just weary of the losses. I'm sorry guys, but I'm out untill the price turn around again. I'm just not gonna watch this thing go down with me in it. I'm out for a bit. Best of luck to you.
    Reply
  •  
    May 01 06:09 AM
    Hilarious article. I suggest they cut the CEO salary and raise stock value.
    Reply
  •  
    May 01 09:56 AM
    RE; NotVerySmart- Sorry to lose you from the front lines, will save your place for you. Would appreciate your continued insight and comments concerning this possible merger. Good Luck in the market! LONG SIRI! RUN BLUE DOG RUNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!...
    Reply
  •  
    May 01 11:22 AM
    Shawnette, you know what you get when you cut a salary, a second rate player now playing for a second rate team. Mel was getting more then this when he was with Viacom. As a matter of fact I will say that, the only real reason Mel would leave a company like Viacom ( besides the fact he did not get along with the main man there) and go to a company like SIRI for less is, ambition to make himself a legend.

    I agree with Killerkaul, sorry to see you go NotVarySmart
    Reply
  •  
    May 01 12:20 PM
    Tyler, I was surprised that Cramer didn't dedicate some time on his Mad Money program last nite, to discussing the two week/merger extensions, as important as the possible imp lications to the collapse of the merger mighht be. Your thoughts anyone? long Siri!
    Reply
  •  
    May 01 12:23 PM
    I guess I'M wondering if he's walking a fine line with the FCC?
    Reply
  •  
    May 01 12:57 PM
    Killerkaul, I was wondering what to make of why a two week time frame also. But there was a good comment by Joe made at Sirius Buzz on the same article that gives a good reason for it. I also just seen a article on Motly Fool saying the same thing as Joe just said.
    Reply
  •  
    May 01 07:14 PM
    Hi All... cleaned up on my SIRI calls today (whew). Got out of the little I had and rode the GOOG/APPL train today. It was a good ride (I love the MSFT/YHOO arbitrage). I'm keepin' an eye on SIRI. Carter talking on the network was a huge adantage (he is a poweful democrat lobbyist) maybe he can talk the FCC decenters into letting this happen. I'll be watching closely. Take care!
    Reply
  •  
    May 01 07:15 PM
    PS - Killerkaul -I miss you too buddy (awww). :-)
    Reply
  •  
    May 01 08:16 PM
    The real threat to the NAB is <b>subscription radio</b>! NAB members, including digital radio station holders, make their living selling commercials that we really don't want to listen to. It's an old model that has held up to the competition of records, tapes and even cd's because it was a relatively good value. Now, as NAB members are investing in Digital Radio, they are afraid it will fall flat against subscription radio, including satellite radio which is quite a value too. I think the NAB's tactics to stall this merger should be reviewed by the DOJ!
    Reply
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